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Subdivision on Hydrological forecasting

Chair: Maria-Helena Ramos

We cover all topics that focus on the estimation of future hydrological states. We believe hydrological forecasting has many challenges today, from producing accurate and reliable forecasts operationally to implementing user-friendly visualisation products and developing innovative water services to support users and decision-makers.

Efficient hydrological forecasting is required by several water sectors, as they are essential for managing floods, droughts and other water-related risks. In addition, hydro-meteorological forecasting systems are increasingly being developed to answer to the needs of economic sectors sensitive to weather and climate variability (e.g., water supply, hydropower, agriculture, tourism, navigation). Forecasting systems provide information on predictions and future scenarios, and explicit estimates of hydro-meteorological uncertainty as input to the decision-making processes of their users.

Today, hydrological forecasting has many challenges: producing accurate and reliable forecasts operationally for water and risk management applications, accessing real-time data networks and assimilating these data in the forecasting process, developing reliable tools for evaluating risk and probabilities of extreme events, integrating economic models for informed decision-making, making best use of human expertise in ensemble-based and probabilistic forecasting systems, documenting societal responses and impacts of extreme events, as well as implementing user-friendly visualisation products and dialogs to support real-time procedures.

Topics covered:

Scientific sessions under the umbrella of the Hydrological Forecasting Sub-Division aim to promote knowledge on current advances and approaches that leverage state-of-the-art techniques and datasets to develop new methods, products and better services for customers in the water sector and users of hydro-meteorological forecasting systems (e.g., public water agencies, hydropower companies, flood forecasting centres, agricultural enterprises).

Topics of interest include:

  • coupled meteorological-hydrological forecasting models for gauged and ungauged catchments,
  • flash flood forecasting and associated hydro-geomorphic processes,
  • predictive uncertainty estimation,
  • data assimilation and pre-/post-processing in real-time,
  • hydrological ensemble prediction,
  • monitoring and forecasting drought and water scarcity,
  • sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasting,
  • model and forecast evaluation,
  • outlooks and communication of alerts and forecasts,
  • decision-making and response in hydrological forecasting systems,
  • operational forecasting and warning for natural hazards, and
  • innovation to water resources management through weather, climate and water services.

Hydrological Forecasting targets different time scales (short-term, medium-term, and long-term) and different spatial scales (from local to regional and global scales).

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