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Europe's transport infrastructure is not ready to face climate change

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3345-2026
22 July 2026

Climate extremes like floods, heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires are disrupting Europe’s transport. This study combines a review of past events and future projections to assess current losses and the future exposure of transport infrastructure. Exposure to extremes is projected to rise, but lower emissions can reduce it. Urgent action is needed to reduce emissions and adapt the Trans-European Transport Network to a changing climate.

From continental to street scales: climate change impacts on atmospheric composition over Europe and London

We use innovative coupled modelling to quantify how natural emissions, chemistry, deposition and transport influence climate change responses of air pollutants from continental to urban scales across Europe. We highlight uncertainties in climate-sensitive biogenic emissions as key to future projections of ozone and fine particulate matter. High resolution modelling is essential for evaluating the benefits and trade-offs of climate change for achieving WHO air quality targets and guidelines.

Brief communication: Temperature-driven shrinkage of a disappearing Himalayan glacier

Glacier AX010 in Nepal, monitored since the 1970s, has been shrinking at an accelerating rate, mainly due to rising temperatures. Drone surveys, modeling, and reanalysis data show mass loss began in the early 1970s and intensified after 2000. While rising temperatures drive shrinkage, precipitation changes have neither accelerated nor mitigated mass loss. At the current rate, the glacier may disappear within 10–20 years.

Wildfire-induced disruptions to evapotranspiration, runoff, and water-balance closure across California's water supply watersheds

Large wildfires are reshaping California’s water-supply forests. Using 40 years of satellite and river data, we found that severe fires greatly reduce vegetation water use, sometimes increasing runoff during dry years. Recovery varies widely across basins and can take many years. The work shows that wildfire can disturb the entire water budget and highlights the need to include fire effects when planning for future water resources.

Heterogeneity of tropical diversity and ecosystems: reefal meiofaunas in equatorial western and eastern African islands

Oceanic islands hold great ecological value as they support endemic biodiversity and act as steppingstones of dispersal. We investigated benthic meiofaunas from two exotic tropical archipelagoes (São Tomé-Príncipe in western Africa and Zanzibar in eastern Africa) and revealed marked heterogeneity in their diversity and biogeographic patterns. High endemicity of the São Tomé-Príncipe fauna underlines the effectiveness of dispersal barriers and urges conservation of those vulnerable ecosystems.

Beyond the 100-year flood: probabilistic flood hazard assessment for King and Pierce Counties under future climate scenarios

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026
13 July 2026

Flooding is a growing risk for communities around Puget Sound, where rising seas and changing rainfall patterns combine with rivers and tides. We used advanced computer models to simulate decades of water levels and river flows to better understand how often and how severely flooding may occur in the future. Our results show that climate change will increase both the frequency and extent of flooding, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation planning.

Contrasting dynamics of lake- and marine-terminating glaciers under same climatic conditions

We studied a unique glacier in South Greenland that ends in both a lake and the ocean. Using satellite data and field work, we found that the two glacier fronts behave very differently even under the same climate. At the lake glacier we identify a floating ice tongue and we infer little melt below water. The lake glacier experienced a sudden large breakup. Our work suggests that lake and marine glacier fronts must be treated differently in model simulations.

Biosignatures of microbial mats in Pleistocene coral reef cores from IODP Expedition 389 (Hawaiian Drowned Reefs)

Drilling beneath Hawai‘i's sea-level into ancient coral reefs, scientists have recovered "living rocks" from more than 100 000 years ago. These massive microbial crusts grew on the coral framework and are exceptionally well preserved archives of former life, showing delicate structures of microbes that usually vanish. Using electron microscopy, researchers found ancient microbial mats and indicators of light-dependent bacteria, thriving in the coral reefs of that time.

Ocean alkalinity enhancement reduces silica ballasting during export due to amplified dissolution

Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a negative emission technology that may alter marine diatom communities and particle export. We show that unequilibrated OAE did not change bloom magnitude or particle fluxes, but reduced silica ballasting. The losses intensified during sinking, consistent with pH-enhanced silica dissolution. Our results show that OAE can modify biological-pump efficiency through export-phase alteration of BSi:POC, even when community biomass production remains unchanged.

Livestock grazing, plant community and abiotic factors shape blue carbon stocks in Nordic coastal marshes

Coastal marshes store high amounts of carbon but remain understudied in Nordic region. We measured organic carbon stored in plants and soil across grazed and ungrazed marshes along environmental gradients. Livestock grazing limited reed dominance, reduced aboveground carbon and altered roots allocation. Soil carbon was mainly controlled by soil properties rather than grazing at large scale. Our results show how grazing and environmental conditions jointly shape carbon storage in coastal marshes.

In-depth characterisation of organic matter thermal lability and composition from Arctic Permafrost thaw slumps

Abrupt permafrost thaw mobilizes ancient organic matter, which could fuel further warming, yet its fate remains uncertain. We studied thaw slumps in Arctic Canada using thermal, radiocarbon, and molecular analyses. Recently thawed debris and runoff exiting the slumps contained old, thermally stable organic matter, compositionally similar to surrounding permafrost. This suggests that much of the thaw-mobilised carbon survives initial transport and may be processed or sequestered downstream.

Review article: The Foundation-Patuxent-Academy ice stream system, Antarctica

We review research about a group of fast-flowing Antarctic ice streams, the Foundation-Patuxent-Academy System. Previously, we knew little about how these ice streams flow, how they interact with each other and the ocean, what their geological history was, and how they might evolve in a warming world. By reviewing existing research, we have identified the future research needed to determine how these ice streams function, and how they might contribute to future global sea level rise.

Understanding changes in Iceland's streamflow dynamics in response to climate change

Iceland relies heavily on hydropower, making it important to understand changes in streamflow. Rivers reflect a warming, wetter climate, with rainfall increasingly replacing snowfall. Annual streamflow has generally increased, most notably during the cool season, while summer flows have declined in some non-glacial rivers. Glacial rivers show increasing melt-season flows over 1973–2023 but declining trends over 1993–2023, reflecting glacier retreat and recent North Atlantic sea surface cooling.

Detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in industrial-era retreat of Pine Island Glacier

At least since we began measuring in detail, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost a lot of ice, but we don't know precisely how important climate change is in this. Here, we put a number on the role of climate change in retreat of a glacier in this ice sheet, for the first time. We show that climate change made the shrinking of this glacier much worse. Our work also suggests that what happened on very long timescales (the last 10,000 years) might also matter for retreat of the ice sheets today.

Quantification of inmixing of Asian Monsoon air by multi-species classification in a match flight experiment

During the PHILEAS aircraft campaign a self-matching experiment was conducted to study the mixing of Asian Summer monsoon air into the upper troposphere – lower stratosphere. We present the first 3-D tomographic observations of this mixing for multiple trace gas species. We use advanced clustering to identify the types of air and their transport pathways, particularly into the stratosphere. Simulations of surface-origin tracers link several of these air types to different source regions.

Climate models with moderate climate sensitivity best simulate the magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance

Observations show an increasing imbalance between how much energy the Earth absorbs from the Sun and emits back to space, leading to climate change. We evaluate how well climate models simulate both the magnitude and trend of the imbalance. We find that models capture the magnitude but underestimate the trend, which is not related to how models handle volcanic aerosols when switching to future scenarios. The models that best simulate the magnitude are the ones with moderate climate sensitivity.

Air–Sea Interactions and Biogeochemical Responses to Medicane Daniel

This study examines Medicane Daniel, showing how a warm-core eddy (WCE), high ocean heat content (OHC), and a marine heatwave (MHW) sustained its intensity near Libya. Using high-resolution Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) observations, we reveal fine-scale eddy dynamics and larger WCE structures than those captured by conventional datasets, highlighting their role in air–sea interactions. Enhanced moisture convergence supported storm intensification, while storm-induced mixing and upwelling increased chlorophyll, nutrient, and oxygen concentrations.

Influence of tropospheric temperature on the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosol from biogenic vapor mixtures

We investigate how temperature (213–313K) affects secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles derived from isoprene and α-pinene mixtures. Isoprene's suppression on α-pinene dimer formation varied with temperatures. Particles formed at higher temperatures are more oxidized yet more volatile than those formed at lower temperatures and then warmed. This work highlights the need to consider both temperature and biogenic vapor interaction to accurately describe SOA formation, aging, and global burden.

Estuarine mixing

This review presents major aspects of estuarine mixing. Due to the large amounts of brackish water in estuaries produced by mixing of fresh river discharge and salty ocean water, mixing is one major characteristic of what is an estuary. Mixing is quantified locally as well as on estuary-wide scales. Diagnostics of integrated mixing are given for estuarine volumes bounded by transects as well as surfaces of constant salinity moving with the flow. Examples for real-world estuaries are given.

Global and diurnal variations in tropospheric ammonia observed from a constellation of hyperspectral infrared sounders in three different LEO orbits

The diurnal cycle of NH₃ remains under-constrained at a global scale. To address this gap, we construct an integrated constellation with hyperspectral infrared sounders in three different Low-Earth-Orbits to achieve quasi-geostationary-like global monitoring coverage of NH₃ and provide six maps of global NH₃for every 4-hour in each day. This constellation has the potential to enhance the global climate-monitoring capacity of polar-orbiting meteorological satellites.

Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse

This model study sets out to investigate how the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet to a virtually ice-free state due to increasing temperatures depends on the rate of this increase. We find oscillations in ice volume on millennial timescales that impact the time it takes before the ice sheet collapses, concluding that there is a mode of deterministic chaos internal to the ice sheet dynamics.

Rapid soil degradation following deforestation in Eastern Africa

Deforestation for croplands on tropical hillslopes causes severe soil degradation and loss of fertile topsoil. We found that this leads to a steep decline in soil fertility, including organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. This makes the land unproductive, often leading farmers to abandon it. Replanting with Eucalyptus trees doesn't restore fertility. This degradation leads to cropland lifespans of only 145±56 years and poses a serious threat to future food production.

On describing particle nucleation within the Volatility Basis Set

A new theory has the potential to accurately describe changes to atmospheric particle formation from the pre-industrial to the present and onwards along socioeconomic pathways addressing air pollution and climate. The model places organic nucleation in the context of the Volatility Basis Set and reveals a competition between chemistry, which accelerates as temperature rises, and vapor pressure, which drops as temperature decreases. The model reproduces observations from the CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research) CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets) chamber.

Denitrification as the dominant process in nitrous oxide production in the water column of two eutrophic reservoirs

Reservoirs act as nitrogen sinks and emit nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas and major ozone-depleting substance. We studied two reservoirs and found that nitrification and denitrification produce nitrous oxide in the water column, but denitrification is the main source, fueled by fresh organic matter from phytoplankton. Our results also suggest that nitrous oxide is actively consumed. This study highlights the need to include reservoirs in global nitrous oxide budgets.

Atmospheric river trajectories organise along a global transport network

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) move vast amounts of water through the atmosphere and often cause weather extremes, yet they are usually studied as regional events. Using 84 years of mapped AR trajectories, we reveal the global "roadmap" of ARs, a transport network of high-activity hubs, sparse atmospheric highways & hierarchical basins. Our approach shows how water vapor is systematically channelled through an atmospheric transport network, offering new ways to study changes in the global water cycle.

Quantitative climate reconstruction from sedimentary ancient DNA: framework, validation and application

We introduce a new climate proxy based on plant DNA preserved in lake sediments. Validated with a large surface sample dataset and applied to a sediment record, this method provides more accurate and robust reconstructions of past climate change than traditional vegetation proxies like pollen, likely due to a higher taxonomic resolution and more localized signal.

The Pluvial Flood Index (PFI): a new instrument for evaluating flash flood hazards and facilitating real-time warning

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-2673-2026
10 June 2026

Pluvial (flash) floods, caused by intense local rainfall, result in surface runoff and overland flow, making them different from fluvial floods. A new Pluvial Flood Index (PFI) combines precipitation, hydrological, and hydrodynamic processes to assess surface flooding hazards. The PFI, based on flood hazard areas, helps forecast flash floods and supports real-time warning systems, aiding municipal decision-making, preparedness, and planning.

The influence of ocean waves on Antarctic sea-ice albedo and seasonal melting, and potential coupled physical and biological feedbacks

This paper advances understanding of why and how Antarctic sea ice can retreat so rapidly each summer, and identifies critical gaps in climate models, by highlighting 3 previously-neglected wave-driven processes and 5 associated feedbacks that accelerate seasonal ice melting and link physics to biology (wave flooding, wave pulverisation and wave greening). There are major implications for Earth’s radiation budget, Antarctic ecosystems and the accuracy of future sea-ice and climate projections.

Wikimpacts 1.0: a new global climate impact database based on automated information extraction from Wikipedia

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-2609-2026
4 June 2026

Climate extremes threaten society and ecosystems, making impact understanding critical. Wikimpacts 1.0 provides an automated pipeline processing Wikipedia texts with underexploited information on climate impacts, yielding comprehensive socio-economic impact data for 2726 climate events from 1034–2024. It offers broader storm-related impacts and finer spatial resolution than established databases, showcasing natural language processing's potential to advance climate impact data.

From real-time to long-term source apportionment of PM₁₀ using high-time-resolution measurements of aerosol physical properties: methodology and example application at an urban background site (Aosta, Italy)

RASPBERRY is a new method to identify aerosol emission sources using physical properties (particle size and light absorption) measured at high time resolution by cost-effective optical instruments, instead of labour-intensive chemical analyses. Applied over five years in Aosta, Italy, it identified six main sources – traffic, biomass burning, two types of secondary particles, desert dust, and local resuspension. Validation against chemical apportionment and real-time applications are presented.

Arctic Weather Satellite assessment and assimilation at ECMWF

Satellite data used in weather forecast models needs to be of a very high quality. Previously, this has been delivered by bus-sized satellites. The new Arctic Weather Satellite shifts this paradigm, delivering high quality observations from a small satellite. Here we analyse the performance and test its impact with a state-of-the-art weather forecast model. It compares well to heritage instruments and has a positive impact on forecast skill.

The TSUSY Database: a global database of historical tsunami events and a tsunami-occurrence criterion based on historical earthquakes

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-2415-2026
29 May 2026

Tsunamis can have devastating consequences, yet it remains challenging to identify which earthquakes generate them. This study presents a criterion for identifying tsunamigenic events based on numerical simulations, as well as a global database of tsunami simulations based on historical earthquakes. By comparing the results with historical records, this approach can improve tsunami identification and support tsunami warnings worldwide.

Cryptotephra in the East Antarctic Mount Brown South ice core

The ~300 m Mount Brown South ice core (MBS) was drilled in coastal East Antarctica in 2017-2018. Here, we combine atmospheric modeling, ice core chemistry, and eruption records to sample a ~20 m MBS companion core for volcanic ash. We identified two ash layers, geochemically correlated with eruptions of Mt. Erebus (1985) and Cerro Hudson (1991). This study proves long-range transport of ash to East Antarctica, validating MBS as an untapped record of high latitude Southern Hemisphere volcanism.

Shoreline exposure controls teal carbon accumulation in boreal lakes

Aquatic vegetated ecosystems are important for global carbon storage, but freshwater shorelines remain understudied. We found that the sedimentary organic carbon (SOC) stocks ranged from 0 to 40.8 kg m⁻², with a large spatial variability. Large SOC stocks were found in sheltered areas, with the predominance of fine-grained sediments. In exposed areas, vegetation might also impact SOC accumulation. Accounting for shoreline exposure is crucial for improving regional carbon budget estimates.

Stratospheric gravity waves in three high-resolution models and AIRS satellite observations

Gravity waves are small-scale processes that drive the circulation in the middle and upper atmosphere. In this work, we assess 3 new high-resolution (3-5km horizontal resolution) models against satellite data. Generally, models capture the spatial patterns and represent stratospheric northern hemisphere mountain generated waves well. However, they still underestimate amplitudes globally and struggle with the representation of southern hemispheric convective waves.

Tide of the Time: Global tidal characteristics observed from in-situ measurements

Ocean tides are a critical component of the global climate system, influencing a wide range of geophysical processes. Tide gauges have been a valuable source for developing the theory of ocean tides and for understanding their variability. We provide updated and new insights on tidal properties using the Global Extreme Sea Level Analysis tide gauge dataset, intended to be useful to a range of applications, from navigation and fishing communities to ocean scientists and tidal experts.

A novel classifier-guided ensemble framework for global terrestrial evapotranspiration estimates

Existing global evapotranspiration algorithms rely on sparse local measurements and each comes with its own strengths and weaknesses. Here, we proposed an ensemble framework that employed a machine learning system to dynamically select the most appropriate algorithm to be used across spatial and temporal scales, thus fully utilizing the distinct strengths of each method. In multi-scale validations, our framework exhibited enhanced extrapolation performance, stability, and interpretability.

Beyond discrete stratocumulus regimes: a ternary continuum of morphology reveals within-regime variability in cloud susceptibilities

We introduce a new way to describe marine low cloud morphologies as a continuous range rather than discrete types. Using this approach, we show that cloud brightness responses to changes in droplet concentrations vary strongly across cloud morphologies, but the overall effect is small. This suggests that marine cloud brightening may rely more on increasing cloud cover than on making existing clouds brighter.

Increasing earthquake awareness: seismo-at-school Switzerland

Although Switzerland faces moderate seismic hazard, earthquakes represent the natural risk with the greatest impact potential. As most residents have never experienced a damaging earthquake, education is critical for raising awareness and enhancing preparedness. In a recent project, we expanded the seismo@school program in Switzerland by developing new teaching materials in four languages, related classroom activities, and by installing Raspberry Shake seismometers in schools across the country.

Internal tides–cyclonic eddy interaction and intermodal energy pathways: evidence from 3 km NEMO-AMAZON36 simulations

Our research investigates how large waves travel deep within the ocean. Using a detailed computer model, we show that when these deep waves meet giant ocean circulation, their path is dramatically changed. They can be bent off course, split apart, or stopped completely. An underwater mountain works with this circulation to transfer the wave energy between different ocean layers. Understanding this process is vital because it controls ocean mixing.

Mineral-bound organic carbon exposed by hillslope thermokarst terrain: case study in Cape Bounty, Canadian High Arctic

SOIL
DOI 10.5194/soil-12-633-2026
19 May 2026

This study examines organic carbon (OC)–mineral interactions in permafrost soils undergoing thermokarst degradation in Cape Bounty (Melville Island, Canada). Chemically stabilized OC accounts for 13 ± 5 % as organo-metallic complexes and 6 ± 2 % as associations with iron oxides. Including physical protection, up to 64 ± 10 % of OC is mineral-protected. Deeper layers show a sharp decline in mineral-bound OC, suggesting increased vulnerability to degradation when exposed by deep thaw features.

Love number computation within the Ice-sheet and Sea-level System Model (ISSM v4.24)

Presented here is a new model of the solid-Earth response to tides and mass changes in ice sheets, oceans, and groundwater, in of terms of gravity change and bedrock motion. The model is capable simulating mantle deformation including elasticity, transient and steady-state viscous flow. We detail our approach to numerical optimization, and report the accuracy of results with respect to community benchmarks. The resulting coupled system features kilometer-scale resolution and fast computation.

Impact of spectral aerosol radiative forcing at the Izaña observatory during the August 2023 extreme wildfires

This study presents a unique near-source observational analysis of the spectral radiative effects of extreme biomass-burning aerosols during the August 2023 wildfire on Tenerife (Canary Islands, Spain). The exceptional proximity of the wildfire to the Izaña Observatory (2400 m a.s.l.) enabled a rare characterisation of aerosol optical properties, spectral solar irradiance, and surface radiative forcing under free-tropospheric conditions.

Climate change drove Late Miocene to Pliocene rise and fall of C₄ vegetation at the crossroads of Africa and Eurasia (Anatolia, Türkiye)

We present a new stable carbon isotope dataset from Anatolian Late Miocene to Holocene soil carbonates, which reveals that C₄ grasslands emerged during Late Miocene Cooling. Uniquely, Anatolia saw a persistent return to C₃ vegetation in the Early Pliocene, which impacted mammal populations. We link the return to C₃vegetation to changes in rainfall seasonality, thereby tying ecosystem responses to climatic shifts in a hotspot of projected anthropogenic climatic change.

High-latitude eddy statistics from SWOT compared with in situ observations

We use new observations from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography Mission (SWOT) satellite to reveal the structure of ocean eddies in the Labrador Sea at unprecedented resolution. By comparison with ship-based measurements, we show that SWOT reliably detects these features even at high latitudes, where conventional altimetry is limited. Our results provide the first detailed view of mesoscale eddies in the Labrador Sea and highlight SWOT's potential in polar regions.

Modelling primary production: multitude of theories, or multitude of languages?

Marine primary production (PP) is a key component of the Earth's climate system, but its current estimates and future projections are highly uncertain. We review the PP uncertainties and discuss their sources both across the ecosystem and satellite models. We propose to reduce the PP uncertainties by better addressing the PP model structures and parametrizations. We also argue that for many models it is desirable to consider spatial and temporal variability in the model parameter values.

Developing Guidelines for working with Multi-Model Ensembles in CMIP

Multi-model ensembles are a key approach in climate model analysis, but their use involves many complex considerations. In this work, we review relevant literature and synthesize existing studies to contribute to the development of guidelines for designing and conducting ensemble analyses. This is complemented by a collection of useful resources and a discussion of emerging trends, supported by statistics tracing the number of publications.

The Scotland–Canada overturning array (SCOTIA): twenty years of meridional overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic

The Atlantic ocean circulation that helps regulate climate is expected to weaken this century. Long-term measurements in the subtropics now show signs of weakening, but northern data are shorter and more variable. By combining several observing systems, we reconstructed northern circulation since 2004 and found strong ups and downs, but no clear long-term weakening so far.

Coastal process understanding through automated identification of recurring surface dynamics in permanent laser scanning data of a sandy beach

We developed a new method to automatically detect and group short-term topographic changes on sandy beaches using hourly 3D laser scans collected over three years. By distinguishing variations in patterns of sand deposition and erosion, the approach allows scientists to study how beaches change at different moments in time and link these changes to environmental conditions like winds, waves or bulldozers, improving understanding and prediction of dynamics of sandy beaches.

First Alps-wide reconstruction of LGM glacial sediment transport enabled by GPU-accelerated particle tracking

This study reconstructs for the first time the transport-pathways of sediments by glaciers during the last glaciation of the European Alps, 24000 years ago. This helps us understand how the European Alps were shaped by past glaciations and helps us better constrain the mechanisms of iceflow, glacier erosion and the movement of large sediment masses by ice. This breakthrough is achieved by coupling a smart particle-tracking algorithm to a machine-learning-enhanced glacier evolution model.