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2121 items found

10 20 50

Forecast-based attribution of the role of stratospheric variability in weather extremes

Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is thought to play a role in driving weather extremes, but quantifying this role for a given event has proved challenging. Using a new set of perturbed subseasonal forecast experiments from 7 modelling centres, we determine the stratospheric contribution to the risk and severity of three recent extreme weather events. The forecast-based methodology that we develop is applicable to understanding a range of other drivers of weather extremes.

Towards family-friendly conferences: results from a first survey in the geosciences

Balancing academic careers and family responsibilities presents significant challenges, particularly for early-career researchers attending conferences. These events are essential for professional development but often create logistical difficulties for parents. Based on a survey of geoscientists, we show that parents require more support and non-parents largely approve of family-friendly measures. We provide practical guidelines to help conference organizers support researchers with families.

Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO₂ emissions

We investigated a response of permafrost using an Earth system model driven by an idealized overshooting carbon emission scenario, and found that the permafrost response to warming and cooling is reversible in the area but irreversible in its property. The permafrost response shows hysteresis, arising from a slow soil response tied to heat conductivity and specific heat of water phase change. A carbon release from thawed permafrost accounts for 0.6–41% of the cumulative carbon emission.

Chlorophyll a variation trends in marginal seas: assessing the impact of global warming and anthropogenic activities using time-series satellite data (1998–2020)

Analyzing 1998–2020 satellite data, this study finds global warming reduces offshore Chl a in open marginal seas, a trend extending nearshore. In contrast, Chl a in highly polluted enclosed seas remains unaffected by warming, dominated instead by nutrient inputs. Successful environmental policies reducing pollution may inadvertently accelerate the climate-driven Chl a decline, revealing a complex ecological trade-off.

AngleCam V2: Predicting leaf inclination angles across taxa from daytime and nighttime photos

To adapt to changing environmental conditions, plants can adjust their leaf angles. We developed AngleCam V2, an AI method that estimates leaf inclination angles from photos taken during day and night. Trained on thousands of images from about 200 species, it monitors daily changes in leaf angle, aligns with laser-scanning data, and detects systematic shifts under water limitation. AngleCam V2 provides an open-source tool for monitoring leaf angle dynamics over time, taxa, and environments.

Catalogue of strong nonlinear surprises in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in CMIP6

We present a first catalogue of abrupt changes/state transitions in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate scenarios. We find many models that show Arctic sea-ice disappearance, North Atlantic winter mixed-layer collapse and/or subsequent transition of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to a weak state. We find more abrupt changes/state transitions than in previous work at lower global warming levels.

Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track

The Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) is a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of Earth system models. Built upon four disparate community evaluation tools, the REF is designed to provide model-data comparisons for the Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The REF will be run at the Earth System Grid Federation to enable model devleopers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues.

Climate change may increase landslide frequency despite generally drier conditions in the Mediterranean area

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3723-2026
10 August 2026

We present a framework linking projected rainfall with hydro-mechanical processes to assess landslide occurrences in a Mediterranean area, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Despite generally drier soils, landslide frequency rises because shifts in the timing and intensity of rainfall, altering antecedent soil moisture during triggering events. This counterintuitive result highlights the importance of rainfall patterns in slope stability and informs climate-risk assessment and adaptation planning.

An update to the expression of atmospheric refractivity for GNSS signals

Refinement of previous work on atmospheric refractivity, providing an expression as a function of air density, temperature, and composition. Studies with radio occultations in weather prediction show that the formulation of refractivity is critical with large data volumes. Compared to earlier work, this study incorporates updated fundamental measurements, accounts for variability in atmospheric composition, and extends the model to include hydrometeors.

New insights into decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic revealed by data-driven dynamical models

We use artificial intelligence to learn simple equations from historical climate data that describe how North Atlantic ocean temperature, air pressure and rainfall vary and influence each other over decades. Analysing the model's behaviour and equation terms, we find rainfall strongly feeds back on both the ocean and the atmosphere. These interactions are well captured by the models and allow rainfall to be predicted over the ocean, and nearby regions such as Europe over coming decades.

Reviews and syntheses: Eddy covariance-based evapotranspiration partitioning

It is important to understand how much water is lost from plant processes to better understand ecosystem dynamics and the global water cycle. This review summarizes methods developed to partition plant water loss from total ecosystem water loss measurements. Eleven independent methods were identified, each reliant on various ecosystem assumptions. The methods were applied across 129 independent studies, reporting that globally, plant water loss accounts for 57 % of total ecosystem water loss.

disdrodb: an open-source Python package for standardized processing, sharing, and analysis of disdrometer data

disdrodb is a Python package for standardized sharing, processing, and analysis of disdrometer observations. It makes precipitation particle size distribution datasets easier to discover, access, and download, and converts heterogeneous raw measurements into global harmonized products for remote sensing precipitation retrievals and particle size distribution studies.

A global high-resolution hydrological model to simulate the dynamics of surface liquid reservoirs: application on Mars

In this paper, we present a global high-resolution hydrological model to investigate how water may have once flowed and accumulated on Mars. Using detailed topography, the model tracks how lakes and seas form, grow, merge, overflow, and dry out over time. It reveals how a vast northern ocean could emerge from smaller bodies of water. This approach links surface landforms to past climates, offering new perspectives on Mars' watery history and its potential habitability.

Valley longitudinal profiles record the fluvial landscape evolution and geological structure of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, East Antarctica

This study focusses on the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, a 600 km-long mountain range that is completely hidden beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We look at the valley networks within the Gamburtsevs and use these to understand how the mountains formed. Our main findings are that the valleys were first cut by rivers that existed before Antarctica was glaciated, the shape of the valleys is affected by the bedrock geology, and the mountains are probably younger than previously thought.

Assessment of seismicity and risk from gas injection in the Groningen gas field

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3443-2026
28 July 2026

Gas production from the Groningen gas field caused felt earthquakes, resulting in field closure in 2023. Despite this, earthquakes are expected to continue for years to come. This study models whether gas injection may be used to reduce earthquakes. The results suggest that, under continued zero-production scenarios, gas injection would decrease the number of earthquakes and the associated seismic risk compared to a no-injection scenario, offering a potential avenue for active mitigation.

CO₂ and H₂O isotope exchange and flux partitioning in Amazonia

We used high-frequency H₂O and CO₂ isotope measurements taken in the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) to separate water vapour and carbon dioxide fluxes into their component processes. During midday, ~95 % of evapotranspiration came from plant transpiration. Isotopes also revealed the balance between photosynthesis and respiration, showing strong sensitivity to leaf CO₂ ratios. These results improve understanding of Amazon ecosystem function.

The added value of new ground-based observations in improving China's methane emission quantification

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, yet existing satellite and ground observations in China are too sparse to accurately quantify emissions, highlighting the need for an expanded ground network. Using Bayesian inversion and simulated annealing, we identify optimal locations for new sites. Results show that prioritizing stations in eastern and southwestern China would be most effective. Expanding the network with 50 stations could nearly double the current emission constraint capability.

Europe's transport infrastructure is not ready to face climate change

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3345-2026
22 July 2026

Climate extremes like floods, heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires are disrupting Europe’s transport. This study combines a review of past events and future projections to assess current losses and the future exposure of transport infrastructure. Exposure to extremes is projected to rise, but lower emissions can reduce it. Urgent action is needed to reduce emissions and adapt the Trans-European Transport Network to a changing climate.

From continental to street scales: climate change impacts on atmospheric composition over Europe and London

We use innovative coupled modelling to quantify how natural emissions, chemistry, deposition and transport influence climate change responses of air pollutants from continental to urban scales across Europe. We highlight uncertainties in climate-sensitive biogenic emissions as key to future projections of ozone and fine particulate matter. High resolution modelling is essential for evaluating the benefits and trade-offs of climate change for achieving WHO air quality targets and guidelines.

Brief communication: Temperature-driven shrinkage of a disappearing Himalayan glacier

Glacier AX010 in Nepal, monitored since the 1970s, has been shrinking at an accelerating rate, mainly due to rising temperatures. Drone surveys, modeling, and reanalysis data show mass loss began in the early 1970s and intensified after 2000. While rising temperatures drive shrinkage, precipitation changes have neither accelerated nor mitigated mass loss. At the current rate, the glacier may disappear within 10–20 years.

Wildfire-induced disruptions to evapotranspiration, runoff, and water-balance closure across California's water supply watersheds

Large wildfires are reshaping California’s water-supply forests. Using 40 years of satellite and river data, we found that severe fires greatly reduce vegetation water use, sometimes increasing runoff during dry years. Recovery varies widely across basins and can take many years. The work shows that wildfire can disturb the entire water budget and highlights the need to include fire effects when planning for future water resources.

Heterogeneity of tropical diversity and ecosystems: reefal meiofaunas in equatorial western and eastern African islands

Oceanic islands hold great ecological value as they support endemic biodiversity and act as steppingstones of dispersal. We investigated benthic meiofaunas from two exotic tropical archipelagoes (São Tomé-Príncipe in western Africa and Zanzibar in eastern Africa) and revealed marked heterogeneity in their diversity and biogeographic patterns. High endemicity of the São Tomé-Príncipe fauna underlines the effectiveness of dispersal barriers and urges conservation of those vulnerable ecosystems.

Beyond the 100-year flood: probabilistic flood hazard assessment for King and Pierce Counties under future climate scenarios

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026
13 July 2026

Flooding is a growing risk for communities around Puget Sound, where rising seas and changing rainfall patterns combine with rivers and tides. We used advanced computer models to simulate decades of water levels and river flows to better understand how often and how severely flooding may occur in the future. Our results show that climate change will increase both the frequency and extent of flooding, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation planning.

Contrasting dynamics of lake- and marine-terminating glaciers under same climatic conditions

We studied a unique glacier in South Greenland that ends in both a lake and the ocean. Using satellite data and field work, we found that the two glacier fronts behave very differently even under the same climate. At the lake glacier we identify a floating ice tongue and we infer little melt below water. The lake glacier experienced a sudden large breakup. Our work suggests that lake and marine glacier fronts must be treated differently in model simulations.

Biosignatures of microbial mats in Pleistocene coral reef cores from IODP Expedition 389 (Hawaiian Drowned Reefs)

Drilling beneath Hawai‘i's sea-level into ancient coral reefs, scientists have recovered "living rocks" from more than 100 000 years ago. These massive microbial crusts grew on the coral framework and are exceptionally well preserved archives of former life, showing delicate structures of microbes that usually vanish. Using electron microscopy, researchers found ancient microbial mats and indicators of light-dependent bacteria, thriving in the coral reefs of that time.

Ocean alkalinity enhancement reduces silica ballasting during export due to amplified dissolution

Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a negative emission technology that may alter marine diatom communities and particle export. We show that unequilibrated OAE did not change bloom magnitude or particle fluxes, but reduced silica ballasting. The losses intensified during sinking, consistent with pH-enhanced silica dissolution. Our results show that OAE can modify biological-pump efficiency through export-phase alteration of BSi:POC, even when community biomass production remains unchanged.

Livestock grazing, plant community and abiotic factors shape blue carbon stocks in Nordic coastal marshes

Coastal marshes store high amounts of carbon but remain understudied in Nordic region. We measured organic carbon stored in plants and soil across grazed and ungrazed marshes along environmental gradients. Livestock grazing limited reed dominance, reduced aboveground carbon and altered roots allocation. Soil carbon was mainly controlled by soil properties rather than grazing at large scale. Our results show how grazing and environmental conditions jointly shape carbon storage in coastal marshes.

In-depth characterisation of organic matter thermal lability and composition from Arctic Permafrost thaw slumps

Abrupt permafrost thaw mobilizes ancient organic matter, which could fuel further warming, yet its fate remains uncertain. We studied thaw slumps in Arctic Canada using thermal, radiocarbon, and molecular analyses. Recently thawed debris and runoff exiting the slumps contained old, thermally stable organic matter, compositionally similar to surrounding permafrost. This suggests that much of the thaw-mobilised carbon survives initial transport and may be processed or sequestered downstream.

Review article: The Foundation-Patuxent-Academy ice stream system, Antarctica

We review research about a group of fast-flowing Antarctic ice streams, the Foundation-Patuxent-Academy System. Previously, we knew little about how these ice streams flow, how they interact with each other and the ocean, what their geological history was, and how they might evolve in a warming world. By reviewing existing research, we have identified the future research needed to determine how these ice streams function, and how they might contribute to future global sea level rise.

Understanding changes in Iceland's streamflow dynamics in response to climate change

Iceland relies heavily on hydropower, making it important to understand changes in streamflow. Rivers reflect a warming, wetter climate, with rainfall increasingly replacing snowfall. Annual streamflow has generally increased, most notably during the cool season, while summer flows have declined in some non-glacial rivers. Glacial rivers show increasing melt-season flows over 1973–2023 but declining trends over 1993–2023, reflecting glacier retreat and recent North Atlantic sea surface cooling.

Detection and attribution of the role of anthropogenic climate change in industrial-era retreat of Pine Island Glacier

At least since we began measuring in detail, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet has lost a lot of ice, but we don't know precisely how important climate change is in this. Here, we put a number on the role of climate change in retreat of a glacier in this ice sheet, for the first time. We show that climate change made the shrinking of this glacier much worse. Our work also suggests that what happened on very long timescales (the last 10,000 years) might also matter for retreat of the ice sheets today.

Quantification of inmixing of Asian Monsoon air by multi-species classification in a match flight experiment

During the PHILEAS aircraft campaign a self-matching experiment was conducted to study the mixing of Asian Summer monsoon air into the upper troposphere – lower stratosphere. We present the first 3-D tomographic observations of this mixing for multiple trace gas species. We use advanced clustering to identify the types of air and their transport pathways, particularly into the stratosphere. Simulations of surface-origin tracers link several of these air types to different source regions.

Climate models with moderate climate sensitivity best simulate the magnitude of Earth's energy imbalance

Observations show an increasing imbalance between how much energy the Earth absorbs from the Sun and emits back to space, leading to climate change. We evaluate how well climate models simulate both the magnitude and trend of the imbalance. We find that models capture the magnitude but underestimate the trend, which is not related to how models handle volcanic aerosols when switching to future scenarios. The models that best simulate the magnitude are the ones with moderate climate sensitivity.

Air–Sea Interactions and Biogeochemical Responses to Medicane Daniel

This study examines Medicane Daniel, showing how a warm-core eddy (WCE), high ocean heat content (OHC), and a marine heatwave (MHW) sustained its intensity near Libya. Using high-resolution Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) observations, we reveal fine-scale eddy dynamics and larger WCE structures than those captured by conventional datasets, highlighting their role in air–sea interactions. Enhanced moisture convergence supported storm intensification, while storm-induced mixing and upwelling increased chlorophyll, nutrient, and oxygen concentrations.

Influence of tropospheric temperature on the formation and aging of secondary organic aerosol from biogenic vapor mixtures

We investigate how temperature (213–313K) affects secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particles derived from isoprene and α-pinene mixtures. Isoprene's suppression on α-pinene dimer formation varied with temperatures. Particles formed at higher temperatures are more oxidized yet more volatile than those formed at lower temperatures and then warmed. This work highlights the need to consider both temperature and biogenic vapor interaction to accurately describe SOA formation, aging, and global burden.

Estuarine mixing

This review presents major aspects of estuarine mixing. Due to the large amounts of brackish water in estuaries produced by mixing of fresh river discharge and salty ocean water, mixing is one major characteristic of what is an estuary. Mixing is quantified locally as well as on estuary-wide scales. Diagnostics of integrated mixing are given for estuarine volumes bounded by transects as well as surfaces of constant salinity moving with the flow. Examples for real-world estuaries are given.

Global and diurnal variations in tropospheric ammonia observed from a constellation of hyperspectral infrared sounders in three different LEO orbits

The diurnal cycle of NH₃ remains under-constrained at a global scale. To address this gap, we construct an integrated constellation with hyperspectral infrared sounders in three different Low-Earth-Orbits to achieve quasi-geostationary-like global monitoring coverage of NH₃ and provide six maps of global NH₃for every 4-hour in each day. This constellation has the potential to enhance the global climate-monitoring capacity of polar-orbiting meteorological satellites.

Chaotic fluctuations in Greenland ice streams limit predictability of ice sheet collapse

This model study sets out to investigate how the collapse of the Greenland ice sheet to a virtually ice-free state due to increasing temperatures depends on the rate of this increase. We find oscillations in ice volume on millennial timescales that impact the time it takes before the ice sheet collapses, concluding that there is a mode of deterministic chaos internal to the ice sheet dynamics.

Rapid soil degradation following deforestation in Eastern Africa

Deforestation for croplands on tropical hillslopes causes severe soil degradation and loss of fertile topsoil. We found that this leads to a steep decline in soil fertility, including organic carbon, nitrogen, and phosphorus. This makes the land unproductive, often leading farmers to abandon it. Replanting with Eucalyptus trees doesn't restore fertility. This degradation leads to cropland lifespans of only 145±56 years and poses a serious threat to future food production.

On describing particle nucleation within the Volatility Basis Set

A new theory has the potential to accurately describe changes to atmospheric particle formation from the pre-industrial to the present and onwards along socioeconomic pathways addressing air pollution and climate. The model places organic nucleation in the context of the Volatility Basis Set and reveals a competition between chemistry, which accelerates as temperature rises, and vapor pressure, which drops as temperature decreases. The model reproduces observations from the CERN (European Organization for Nuclear Research) CLOUD (Cosmics Leaving Outdoor Droplets) chamber.

Denitrification as the dominant process in nitrous oxide production in the water column of two eutrophic reservoirs

Reservoirs act as nitrogen sinks and emit nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas and major ozone-depleting substance. We studied two reservoirs and found that nitrification and denitrification produce nitrous oxide in the water column, but denitrification is the main source, fueled by fresh organic matter from phytoplankton. Our results also suggest that nitrous oxide is actively consumed. This study highlights the need to include reservoirs in global nitrous oxide budgets.

Atmospheric river trajectories organise along a global transport network

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) move vast amounts of water through the atmosphere and often cause weather extremes, yet they are usually studied as regional events. Using 84 years of mapped AR trajectories, we reveal the global "roadmap" of ARs, a transport network of high-activity hubs, sparse atmospheric highways & hierarchical basins. Our approach shows how water vapor is systematically channelled through an atmospheric transport network, offering new ways to study changes in the global water cycle.

Quantitative climate reconstruction from sedimentary ancient DNA: framework, validation and application

We introduce a new climate proxy based on plant DNA preserved in lake sediments. Validated with a large surface sample dataset and applied to a sediment record, this method provides more accurate and robust reconstructions of past climate change than traditional vegetation proxies like pollen, likely due to a higher taxonomic resolution and more localized signal.

The Pluvial Flood Index (PFI): a new instrument for evaluating flash flood hazards and facilitating real-time warning

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-2673-2026
10 June 2026

Pluvial (flash) floods, caused by intense local rainfall, result in surface runoff and overland flow, making them different from fluvial floods. A new Pluvial Flood Index (PFI) combines precipitation, hydrological, and hydrodynamic processes to assess surface flooding hazards. The PFI, based on flood hazard areas, helps forecast flash floods and supports real-time warning systems, aiding municipal decision-making, preparedness, and planning.

The influence of ocean waves on Antarctic sea-ice albedo and seasonal melting, and potential coupled physical and biological feedbacks

This paper advances understanding of why and how Antarctic sea ice can retreat so rapidly each summer, and identifies critical gaps in climate models, by highlighting 3 previously-neglected wave-driven processes and 5 associated feedbacks that accelerate seasonal ice melting and link physics to biology (wave flooding, wave pulverisation and wave greening). There are major implications for Earth’s radiation budget, Antarctic ecosystems and the accuracy of future sea-ice and climate projections.

Wikimpacts 1.0: a new global climate impact database based on automated information extraction from Wikipedia

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-2609-2026
4 June 2026

Climate extremes threaten society and ecosystems, making impact understanding critical. Wikimpacts 1.0 provides an automated pipeline processing Wikipedia texts with underexploited information on climate impacts, yielding comprehensive socio-economic impact data for 2726 climate events from 1034–2024. It offers broader storm-related impacts and finer spatial resolution than established databases, showcasing natural language processing's potential to advance climate impact data.

From real-time to long-term source apportionment of PM₁₀ using high-time-resolution measurements of aerosol physical properties: methodology and example application at an urban background site (Aosta, Italy)

RASPBERRY is a new method to identify aerosol emission sources using physical properties (particle size and light absorption) measured at high time resolution by cost-effective optical instruments, instead of labour-intensive chemical analyses. Applied over five years in Aosta, Italy, it identified six main sources – traffic, biomass burning, two types of secondary particles, desert dust, and local resuspension. Validation against chemical apportionment and real-time applications are presented.

Arctic Weather Satellite assessment and assimilation at ECMWF

Satellite data used in weather forecast models needs to be of a very high quality. Previously, this has been delivered by bus-sized satellites. The new Arctic Weather Satellite shifts this paradigm, delivering high quality observations from a small satellite. Here we analyse the performance and test its impact with a state-of-the-art weather forecast model. It compares well to heritage instruments and has a positive impact on forecast skill.

The TSUSY Database: a global database of historical tsunami events and a tsunami-occurrence criterion based on historical earthquakes

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-2415-2026
29 May 2026

Tsunamis can have devastating consequences, yet it remains challenging to identify which earthquakes generate them. This study presents a criterion for identifying tsunamigenic events based on numerical simulations, as well as a global database of tsunami simulations based on historical earthquakes. By comparing the results with historical records, this approach can improve tsunami identification and support tsunami warnings worldwide.

Cryptotephra in the East Antarctic Mount Brown South ice core

The ~300 m Mount Brown South ice core (MBS) was drilled in coastal East Antarctica in 2017-2018. Here, we combine atmospheric modeling, ice core chemistry, and eruption records to sample a ~20 m MBS companion core for volcanic ash. We identified two ash layers, geochemically correlated with eruptions of Mt. Erebus (1985) and Cerro Hudson (1991). This study proves long-range transport of ash to East Antarctica, validating MBS as an untapped record of high latitude Southern Hemisphere volcanism.