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European Geosciences Union

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Growth and decay of the Iceland Ice Sheet through the last glacial cycle

We simulated the Icelandic Ice Sheet over the last 120 kyr using an ice sheet model constrained by geological data with robust uncertainty assessment. At the Last Glacial Maximum, ice reached the continental shelf break, with a potential ice bridge connecting to the Greenland Ice Sheet. Model consistency with geological constraints during deglaciation is only possible with meltwater-driven ice fracture at the ice sheet margin, destabilizing the marine ice sheet and accelerating its collapse.

Proglacial wetlands: an overlooked CO₂ sink within recently deglaciated landscapes

SOIL
DOI 10.5194/soil-12-441-2026
17 April 2026

When glaciers retreat, new land surface is revealed. Using detailed glacial retreat maps, it is possible to determine for how long a location has been ice-free. That age is used in this study to analyse how fast carbon is incorporated into the soil. Our results show that the wetness of the soil strongly determines the CO₂ uptake and carbon incorporation rates. Wetlands cover a small percentage of the land surface but are nonetheless important for the carbon storage in the deglaciated area.

Widespread occurrence of large molecular methylsiloxanes in ambient aerosols

We identify a previously unrecognized class of synthetic organic compounds, large molecular methylsiloxanes, in ambient aerosols across diverse environments in three countries. These compounds are present at substantial levels, primarily originating from traffic emissions related to engine lubrication. Their high abundance and significant daily human exposure suggest potential, yet still poorly understood, implications for both health and climate.

Geological factors and fracture distribution in deep and ultra-deep sandstones in Kuqa Depression, Tarim Basin, China

This study integrates geological and geophysical data to examine controls of sedimentary factors, earth stress, and tectonic structure on fracture distribution in deep and ultra-deep sandstones in Kuqa Depression. Key findings show fracture density increases with sandbody thickness and paleostress magnitude, is higher near faults and fold hinges, and is favored by thinner sand-mud interbeds. Increased horizontal stress differences contributes to reduced fracture apertures.

Quiet New Particle Formation is a significant aerosol source in the Amazon boundary layer

Aerosols are tiny particles that help clouds form and influence the climate. In the Amazon, clear events of new aerosol particle formation are rare, making it difficult to explain their origin. Using ten years of measurements, we discovered a subtle but frequent process called Quiet New Particle Formation. This hidden mechanism slowly produces and grows small particles and is responsible for nearly half of the smallest aerosols observed during the wet season.

The Destination Earth digital twin for climate change adaptation

The Climate Change Adaptation Digital Twin (Climate DT) pioneers the operationalisation of global climate projections. It produces global simulations with local granularity for adaptation decision-making. Applications are embedded to generate tailored indicators. A unified workflow orchestrates all components in several supercomputers. Data management ensures consistency and streaming enables real-time use. It is a complementary innovation to initiatives like CMIP, CORDEX, and climate services.

Results of the second Ice Shelf–Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (ISOMIP+)

The second Ice Shelf-Ocean Model Intercomparison Project, ISOMIP+, compares 12 ice shelf-ocean models with a common, idealised, static configuration, aiming to assess inter-model variability. Models show similar basal melt rate patterns, ocean profiles and circulation but differ in ice-ocean boundary layer properties. Ice-ocean boundary layer representation is a key area for future work, as are realistic-domain ice sheet-ocean model intercomparisons.

Emerging Climate Signals in Tropical Oxygen Minimum Zones

The ocean is losing oxygen due to climate change, threatening ecosystems, especially in naturally low-oxygen areas called Oxygen Minimum Zones (OMZs). Using the IPSL-CM6A-LR Large Ensemble, this study identifies when climate-driven changes in OMZ volumes and regional deoxygenation emerge from natural variability. We highlight hemispheric asymmetries due to ocean ventilation and provide model-based estimates for the timing of detectable OMZ evolution.

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP7 (ScenarioMIP-CMIP7)

We propose a set of seven plausible 21st century emission scenarios, and their multi-century extensions, that will be used by the international community of climate modeling centers to produce the next generation of climate projections. These projections will support climate, impact and mitigation researchers, provide information to practitioners to address future risks from climate change, and contribute to policymakers’ considerations of the trade-offs among various levels of mitigation.

Emerging low-cloud feedback and adjustment in global satellite observations

Recent decades have seen a marked decrease in global low-level cloud cover, leading to more sunlight heating the Earth. This trend is poorly understood, raising the concern that clouds may amplify global warming more than previously thought. We show that the cloud decrease is mostly caused by human forcing on climate, and that it agrees with previous estimates of how clouds respond to decreasing aerosol pollution, increasing greenhouse gas concentration, and their effects on global temperature.

The terrestrial ice margin morphology in Kalaallit Nunaat (Greenland)

Nearly 95% of the Greenland ice margin ends on land, where meltwater leaves the ice to supply surrounding ecosystems. Here we show that nearly 30% of this land-terminating margin ends in extremely steep, often vertical sections, previously only described in individual locations. Less than 20% are shallow ramps. Knowledge of these margin shapes and their locations allows us to further investigate what they can potentially tell us about the current ice sheet health and its future evolution.

Limited influence of bedrock strength on river profiles: the dominant role of sediment dynamics

Bedrock strength in bedrock river is often seen as controlling incision rates and river profiles, natural changes in rock type do not always match slope changes. In the Abukuma River basin, Japan, we measured bedrock strength and despite large strength differences, slopes were nearly uniform. Numerical tests showed that the model, which includes sediment cover and erosion effects, best explained river profiles. Thus, sediment plays a greater role than bedrock strength in shaping river profiles.

A lesson in preparedness: assessing the effectiveness of low-cost post-wildfire flood protection measures for the catastrophic flood in Kineta, Greece

Wildfires can exacerbate flood risks, as seen in a Greek town where heavy rain caused significant damage following a recent fire. This study examined how simple, low-cost protection measures, such as Log Erosion Barriers and wooden check-dams, might have mitigated the damage. Using models and real data, we found these measures could have lowered the flood's impact by 25 % and saved millions in damage. Therefore, investing in such prevention can be cheaper than paying for repairs after disasters.

Thermodynamic concepts used in physical oceanography

Marine science has adopted the Conservative Temperature and Absolute Salinity variables of TEOS-10 (the International Thermodynamic Equation Of Seawater - 2010), and here we review the thermodynamic theory behind this change of practice. Ocean heat content and the poleward oceanic heat flux are accurately evaluated using Conservative Temperature. Absolute Salinity incorporates the variable composition of seawater, and ocean models now need to incorporate this feature. The available methods for evaluating approximately neutral surfaces are also discussed.

Mapping the fertosphere's phosphorus availability distribution in a field trial using a novel diffusive gradients in thin-films (fDGT) technique

SOIL
DOI 10.5194/soil-12-253-2026
17 March 2026

The first report of the field deployment of a new soil sampling device to investigate phosphorus (P) fertiliser strategies. The approach was combined with X-ray fluorescence microscopy to produce 2D spatially-resolved P availability maps to visualise distinct differences between new and conventional P fertilisers. This technique shows great potential for optimising P application and material sciences development; potentially leading to improved productivity and more sustainable P fertiliser use.

The impact of Aeolus observations on wind and rainfall predictions

This study shows that Aeolus satellite wind lidar observations significantly improve wind forecasts and that these improvements lead to more accurate rainfall predictions, particularly at longer lead times and during winter seasons in the extratropics. The benefits are likely due to better representation of large-scale atmospheric features such as jet streams and Rossby waves, highlighting Aeolus's value for numerical weather prediction.

Numerical experiments of cloud seeding for mitigating localization of heavy rainfall: a case study of Mesoscale Convective System in Japan

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-1287-2026
11 March 2026

Can disasters caused by extreme rainfall be mitigated through human intervention? Using numerical simulations reproducing a devastating rainfall event, we show that injecting large amounts of ice nuclei into convective clouds can trigger an “overseeding” effect that suppresses raindrop growth. This process disperses intense rainfall downstream and reduces peak 3-hour rainfall by up to 32 %, highlighting the potential of cloud seeding as a new strategy for mitigating heavy rainfall disasters.

The role of cyclonic eddies in the detachment and separation of Loop Current eddies

We analyze 29 years of satellite altimetry to investigate the detachment of Loop Current Eddies in the Gulf of Mexico. Over half of the Loop Current eddies reattach within a month, while 42 % separate and drift westward. Detachment requires the Loop Current to reach the Mississippi Fan and is strongly influenced by cyclonic eddies, whose configuration determines whether an eddy separates or reattaches to the Loop Current.

Feldspar alteration by disequilibrium CO₂-H₂O fluids in reservoir sandstones: implications for CCS

Contrary to current CCS (Carbon Capture and Storage) models, reaction experiments conducted at subsurface stress and temperature conditions reveal that feldspars, common, reactive grains in sandstone reservoirs, can undergo significant chemical and mechanical changes when exposed to CO₂ enriched water. These chemo-mechanical processes, including grain fracturing, dissolution, and clay precipitation, can modify fluid pathways and rock strength, potentially reducing reservoir productivity and increasing leakage risk.

Wine must yields as indicators of May to July climate in Central Europe, 1416–1988

Narrative historical records of wine production in Central Europe date back to 1200. A study of taxes paid to authorities in the French-Luxembourg Moselle region, Germany, and the Swiss Plateau over the last few centuries shows that wine yields provide indirect indications of summer temperatures when the impact of heavy frosts is taken into account. This enables climate reconstructions based on tree rings to be refined and confirmed. Occasionally, poor harvests gave rise to witch hunts.

Mitigating Mazuku hazards: implementation and effectiveness of local dry-gas degassing measures in the Goma area (Virunga Volcanic Province)

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-1141-2026
6 March 2026

This paper studies how households in Goma (Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo) respond to mazuku – invisible, odourless carbon dioxide gas that accumulates in depressions. Surveys and interviews show that resource-intensive measures are adopted only by those who can afford them, while awareness measures are valued by all. The findings highlight that involving communities in designing risk mitigation that match their economic realities is essential.

Where curling stones collide with rock mechanics: cyclical damage accumulation and fatigue in granitoids

Curling stones often collide with each other during a game. Over time, these collisions cause damage in the striking bands on the sides of the stones. We determined experimentally how hard these stones collide into one another. We then looked at old curling stones to understand how damage builds up in these rocks. We found that early, fast impacts produce fractures until the striking band is saturated in fractures. Repeated impacts after this stage make fractures grow.

Evaluation of nine gridded daily weather reconstructions for the European heatwave summer of 1807

We test nine reconstructions of Europe’s hot summer of 1807, using weather records, reanalyses, machine-learning (ML), and data assimilation. Most approaches match observed temperature and pressure well. Approaches based on physics of atmospheric flow capture weather patterns well, while ML approaches better reflect station records. Ingestion of accurate records from new regions improves the reconstructions markedly. In all, the approaches provide new insights to pre-industrial extreme weather.

Drivers of long-term grassland CO₂ fluxes: effects of management and meteorological conditions during regrowth periods

Analyzing 20 years (2005–2024) of CO₂ flux, meteorological, and agricultural management data from an intensively managed grassland in Switzerland using machine learning, we identified drivers of ecosystem productivity (gross primary production (GPP)), respiration (ecosystem respiration (Reco)) and their changes over time. Moreover, we showed how agricultural management interacted and could partly offset negative impacts of extreme events on GPP. Our findings offer observational evidence to inform climate adaptation strategies in grasslands.

Lessons learned in institutional preparedness and response during the 2022 European drought

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-955-2026
27 February 2026

This research by the Drought in the Anthropocene (DitA) network highlights the crucial role of forecasting systems and Drought Management Plans in European drought risk management. Based on a survey of water managers during the 2022 European drought, it underscores the impact of preparedness on response and the evolution of drought management strategies across the continent, showing how organisations with preparedness measures in place responded faster and more effectively.

Nutrient flows and biogeomorphic feedbacks: linking seabird guano to plant traits and morphological change on sandy islands

Seabird guano enriches nitrogen-loving plants and boost plants to trap sediment, driving the gradual growth and reshaping of coastal islands. By pairing on-site plant surveys with satellite imagery and elevation data, we show these effects vary with elevation, soil type, and season. Birds thus engineer and sustain their own breeding habitats. For conservation managers, protecting colonies is key to preserving the dynamic island landscapes these and other species rely on.

Challenges and opportunities for understanding societal impacts of climate extremes

Understanding impacts of climate extremes is very important for society and the economy. We identify three challenges restricting this understanding: limited availability and quality of impact data, difficulties in understanding why given impacts occur and lack of reliable projections of future impacts. We also identify key opportunities, including newly released datasets, recent methodological and technical advances and interdisciplinary collaborations between the social and natural sciences.

A source or a sink? How the altitude of particle precipitation influence high-latitude electrodynamics

When energetic particles rain into Earth’s lower ionosphere, they ionize the gas, creating a highly conductive base layer. Using a large database of observations from four orbiting space weather satellites, we demonstrate that this plasma foundation acts as a giant electrical short-circuit: it actively neutralizes the electric fields that would otherwise power plasma turbulence higher up. Without this conductive base to drain the energy, topside turbulence freely grows and persists.

FAIR fission track analysis with geochron@home

geochron@home is a free and open-source platform that makes fission track dating more transparent and reliable. It combines a virtual microscope with an online database to share images and data openly, following FAIR principles. Researchers can analyse tracks privately, archive data for peer review, teach students, or involve citizen scientists. By improving data access and reproducibility, geochron@home helps build trust and supports future advances in Earth science.

Mesoscale variability and water mass transport of the Caribbean Current revealed by high-resolution glider observations

Ocean Science
DOI 10.5194/os-22-735-2026
23 February 2026

The Caribbean Through-Flow carries warm Atlantic water westward, influencing climate and ocean circulation, yet its variability is poorly resolved. Using over 90 days of autonomous underwater glider data collected in the central Caribbean, we observed a sharp drop in transport linked to mesoscale eddy activity. While transport varied, the water mass composition remained stable. These results demonstrate how gliders can capture dynamic ocean processes that shape inter-basin exchange.

Towards an operational European Drought Impacts Database (EDID)

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-845-2026
20 February 2026

Drought impact information is important for risk assessment. But, there is little consensus on impact data monitoring. The European Drought Impacts Database (EDID) combines several existing text-based datasets with the results from new searches for impact information into a structured database with spatial and temporal attributes. Allowing research as well as operational use, its contents show where and when in Europe drought has affected agriculture, water supply, ecosystems, and other sectors.

Enhancing dust aerosols monitoring capabilities across North Africa and the Middle East using the A-Train satellite constellation

North Africa and the Middle East are home to the world’s most active dust sources, but accurately monitoring airborne dust remains challenging. We combine active and passive satellite aerosol products to dynamically estimate dust lidar ratios over a 12-year period. The results reveal pronounced and physically meaningful regional variability, improving aerosol characterization and supporting climate and air-quality applications.

NorESM2–DIAM: a coupled model for investigating global and regional climate-economy interactions

We introduce NorESM2-DIAM (Norwegian Earth System Model version 2-Disaggregated Integrated Assessment Model), a first-of-its-kind tool linking a climate model with a high-resolution economic model to study how climate change, internal variability, and economic activity interact across the world. The model reveals strong regional differences and large annual swings in economic impacts, offers insights for climate policy discussions, and provides a strong foundation for future model development.

Water vapour isotope anomalies during an atmospheric river event at Dome C, East Antarctica

In December 2018, an atmospheric river event from the Atlantic reached Dome C, East Antarctica, causing a +18 °C warming, tripled water vapour, and a strong isotopic anomaly in water vapour (+ 17 ‰ for δ¹⁸O) at the surface. During the peak of the event, we found 70 % of the water vapour came from local snow sublimation, and 30 % from the atmospheric river itself, highlighting both long-range moisture advection and interactions between the boundary layer and the snowpack.

Phytoplankton blooms affect microscale differences of oxygen and temperature across the sea surface microlayer

Microsensors measuring oxygen and temperature were used to gain high-resolution profiles across the surface of a water basin, in which an algal bloom was induced. These novel data show that the oxygen at the sea surface is highly influenced by algal blooms, while the temperature is only indirectly affected by them. Since algal blooms occur globally, this has considerable implications for calculating global air-sea exchanges of gases or heat, especially under low-wind conditions.

Northward shift of boreal tree cover confirmed by satellite record

Analysis of 36 years of satellite tree cover data provide the first comprehensive confirmation of the northward advance of the boreal forest. Boreal tree cover expanded by 0.84 million km² (12%) from 1985 to 2020 and shifted northward by 0.43°. Gains outpaced losses across most latitudes, confirming a biome-wide poleward shift. Young forests now comprise 15% of the area of the world’s largest forest biome, storing 1–6 Pg C and potentially sequestering an additional 2–4 Pg C as they mature.

Investigating controls on fluvial grain sizes in post-glacial landscapes using citizen science

We explore controls on channel sediment characteristics in post-glacial landscapes. In contrast to other studies that have focused on landscapes with little glacial influence, we find no apparent controls. We propose that Scotland's post-glacial legacy drives the lack of sedimentological trends, and that changes in landscape morphology and sediment sources caused by glacial processes lead to a decoupling between fluvial sediment grain size and environmental variables.

The largest crop production shocks: magnitude, causes and frequency

Large crop failures happen regularly around the world, threatening food security. We analyzed sixty years of global crop production data and found that every country has experienced major crop losses. Climate events like droughts cause most severe disruptions, with some African nations losing up to eighty percent of production. While global crop shocks above five percent are rare, regional disruptions occur frequently. These findings show our food system faces regular large-scale threats.

Machine-learning models of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N isoscapes in Amazonian wood

Illegal logging is a major environmental concern in the Amazon. We tested whether the isotopic composition of carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) in wood can support timber traceability. Using machine-learning models, we generated basin-wide isoscapes showing that both isotopes capture consistent environmental gradients, providing a scientific basis to improve provenance verification and guide enforcement efforts.

Flood risks to the financial stability of residential mortgage borrowers: an integrated modeling approach

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-675-2026
30 January 2026

Uninsured flood damage can destabilize household finances, particularly when access to affordable credit is limited. Across seven floods in North Carolina, 66% of damage was found to be uninsured. Among affected mortgage borrowers, 32% lacked sufficient income or collateral to finance repairs through home equity-based borrowing, making their recovery uncertain. These findings suggest that uninsured flood damage poses a serious and under-recognized threat to residential mortgage borrowers.

Assessment of the Cape Blanc (northwest Africa) upwelling ecosystem response to recent climate change, using wavelet analyses on dinoflagellate cyst export

This study examined the cycle variability in records of a plankton group remnant (dinoflagellate cysts), atmospheric, and oceanic factors off Cape Blanc, Northwest Africa. The result showed changes in the cycles of the plankton, upwelling winds, and Saharan dust records from 2003 to 2020. These changes were divided into three phases, coinciding with changes in the plankton assemblage. Our results showed that local climate change can influence the dynamics and composition of marine ecosystems.

Operational numerical weather prediction with ICON on GPUs (version 2024.10)

The ICON climate and numerical weather prediction model was fully ported to Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) using OpenACC compiler directives, covering all components required for operational weather prediction. The GPU port together with several performance optimizations led to a speed-up of 5.6× when comparing to traditional Central Processing Units (CPUs) . Thanks to this adaptation effort, MeteoSwiss became the first national weather service to run the ICON model operationally on GPUs.

A survey of snow growth signatures from tropics to Antarctica using triple-frequency radar observations

Despite the increasing complexity of snow microphysics schemes employed in numerical models, whether the dominant snow microphysical process is reasonably identified remains an open question. This study using unprecedented triple-frequency radar observations for the first time unravels the key snow growth processes over diverse geographies. The unique cross-continental datasets from triple-frequency campaigns shed new insights for model evaluation and future satellite missions.

Review article: Social media for managing disasters triggered by natural hazards: a critical review of data collection strategies and actionable insights

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-215-2026
27 January 2026

This paper critically reviews 250 studies (2010–2023) on how social media are used to manage disasters triggered by natural hazards. Supported by a newly created Social Media Literature Database, it identifies trends, data collection and analysis strategies, actionable information types, and major research gaps. Best practices are proposed for community use of social media during disasters and for researchers seeking to enhance its integration into disaster management and resilience strategies.

Impact on cloud properties of reduced-sulphur shipping fuel in the Eastern North Atlantic

The amount of sunlight reflected by marine boundary layer clouds in the Eastern North Atlantic does not change due to a decrease in aerosol caused by reduced sulphur in shipping fuel because adjustments to liquid water path offset the decease in cloud droplet number concentration.

High resolution monthly precipitation isotope estimates across Australia from machine learning

We used a random forest approach to produce estimates of monthly precipitation stable isotope variability from 1962–2023, at high resolution across the entire Australian continent. Comprehensive skill and sensitivity testing shows that our random forest models skilfully predict precipitation isotope values in places and times that observations are not available. We make all outputs freely available, facilitating use in fields from ecology and hydrology to archaeology and forensic science.

Quantifying the time of emergence of the anthropogenic signal in the global land carbon sink

We study when anthropogenic signal becomes detectable in the global land carbon sink, which has risen since the 1950s due to CO₂ fertilization and mid- to high-latitude warming. The signal emerges earlier at the global than at regional scales. Future scenarios (2016–2100) take longer to detect than the historical period (1851–2014) because the signal is weaker relative to larger natural variability. Removing circulation-induced variability with dynamical adjustment shortens the detection time.

Emerging Mineral Dust Source in ’A’ą̈y Chù’ Valley, Yukon, Canada Poses Potential Health Risk via Exposure to Metal and Metalloids Enriched in PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 Size Fractions

Glacial sediment of the ’A’ą̈y Chù’ Valley in Yukon, Canada is exposed to strong winds, and consequently, has become a significant mineral dust source. Mineral dust is known to have an impact on human health, partly due to various metals it contains, with the size of the particles also being an important factor. The goal of this study was to determine the concentration of various metals in the dust, how this relates to dust size, and whether air quality standards were surpassed.

A novel laser-based spectroscopic method reveals the isotopic signatures of nitrous oxide produced by eukaryotic and prokaryotic phototrophs in darkness

We present a new method for the accurate laser-based analysis of N₂O isotopes. For the first time, we measured the Site Preference-N₂O signatures of pure cultures of microalgae and cyanobacteria. Our study is a first step to ultimately develop process-specific N₂O monitoring from aquatic ecosystems. Further research is now needed to determine the occurrence and significance of N₂O emissions from microalgae and cyanobacteria from aquatic ecosystems.

Culturing experiments reveal mechanisms of daily trace element incorporation into Tridacna shells

This study explores daily geochemical variations in giant clam (Tridacna) shells from controlled, isotopically-labelled day-night growth experiments. Results show five times higher daytime calcification rates. Light availability and metabolic activity significantly influence elemental incorporation mechanisms. The findings enhance our understanding of clam geochemistry and growth dynamics, offering valuable insights for studies on past environmental changes.