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European Geosciences Union

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2013 items found

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NorESM2–DIAM: a coupled model for investigating global and regional climate-economy interactions

We introduce NorESM2-DIAM (Norwegian Earth System Model version 2-Disaggregated Integrated Assessment Model), a first-of-its-kind tool linking a climate model with a high-resolution economic model to study how climate change, internal variability, and economic activity interact across the world. The model reveals strong regional differences and large annual swings in economic impacts, offers insights for climate policy discussions, and provides a strong foundation for future model development.

Water vapour isotope anomalies during an atmospheric river event at Dome C, East Antarctica

In December 2018, an atmospheric river event from the Atlantic reached Dome C, East Antarctica, causing a +18 °C warming, tripled water vapour, and a strong isotopic anomaly in water vapour (+ 17 ‰ for δ¹⁸O) at the surface. During the peak of the event, we found 70 % of the water vapour came from local snow sublimation, and 30 % from the atmospheric river itself, highlighting both long-range moisture advection and interactions between the boundary layer and the snowpack.

Phytoplankton blooms affect microscale differences of oxygen and temperature across the sea surface microlayer

Microsensors measuring oxygen and temperature were used to gain high-resolution profiles across the surface of a water basin, in which an algal bloom was induced. These novel data show that the oxygen at the sea surface is highly influenced by algal blooms, while the temperature is only indirectly affected by them. Since algal blooms occur globally, this has considerable implications for calculating global air-sea exchanges of gases or heat, especially under low-wind conditions.

Northward shift of boreal tree cover confirmed by satellite record

Analysis of 36 years of satellite tree cover data provide the first comprehensive confirmation of the northward advance of the boreal forest. Boreal tree cover expanded by 0.84 million km² (12%) from 1985 to 2020 and shifted northward by 0.43°. Gains outpaced losses across most latitudes, confirming a biome-wide poleward shift. Young forests now comprise 15% of the area of the world’s largest forest biome, storing 1–6 Pg C and potentially sequestering an additional 2–4 Pg C as they mature.

Investigating controls on fluvial grain sizes in post-glacial landscapes using citizen science

We explore controls on channel sediment characteristics in post-glacial landscapes. In contrast to other studies that have focused on landscapes with little glacial influence, we find no apparent controls. We propose that Scotland's post-glacial legacy drives the lack of sedimentological trends, and that changes in landscape morphology and sediment sources caused by glacial processes lead to a decoupling between fluvial sediment grain size and environmental variables.

The largest crop production shocks: magnitude, causes and frequency

Large crop failures happen regularly around the world, threatening food security. We analyzed sixty years of global crop production data and found that every country has experienced major crop losses. Climate events like droughts cause most severe disruptions, with some African nations losing up to eighty percent of production. While global crop shocks above five percent are rare, regional disruptions occur frequently. These findings show our food system faces regular large-scale threats.

Machine-learning models of δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N isoscapes in Amazonian wood

Illegal logging is a major environmental concern in the Amazon. We tested whether the isotopic composition of carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) in wood can support timber traceability. Using machine-learning models, we generated basin-wide isoscapes showing that both isotopes capture consistent environmental gradients, providing a scientific basis to improve provenance verification and guide enforcement efforts.

Flood risks to the financial stability of residential mortgage borrowers: an integrated modeling approach

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-675-2026
30 January 2026

Uninsured flood damage can destabilize household finances, particularly when access to affordable credit is limited. Across seven floods in North Carolina, 66% of damage was found to be uninsured. Among affected mortgage borrowers, 32% lacked sufficient income or collateral to finance repairs through home equity-based borrowing, making their recovery uncertain. These findings suggest that uninsured flood damage poses a serious and under-recognized threat to residential mortgage borrowers.

Assessment of the Cape Blanc (northwest Africa) upwelling ecosystem response to recent climate change, using wavelet analyses on dinoflagellate cyst export

This study examined the cycle variability in records of a plankton group remnant (dinoflagellate cysts), atmospheric, and oceanic factors off Cape Blanc, Northwest Africa. The result showed changes in the cycles of the plankton, upwelling winds, and Saharan dust records from 2003 to 2020. These changes were divided into three phases, coinciding with changes in the plankton assemblage. Our results showed that local climate change can influence the dynamics and composition of marine ecosystems.

Operational numerical weather prediction with ICON on GPUs (version 2024.10)

The ICON climate and numerical weather prediction model was fully ported to Graphical Processing Units (GPUs) using OpenACC compiler directives, covering all components required for operational weather prediction. The GPU port together with several performance optimizations led to a speed-up of 5.6× when comparing to traditional Central Processing Units (CPUs) . Thanks to this adaptation effort, MeteoSwiss became the first national weather service to run the ICON model operationally on GPUs.

A survey of snow growth signatures from tropics to Antarctica using triple-frequency radar observations

Despite the increasing complexity of snow microphysics schemes employed in numerical models, whether the dominant snow microphysical process is reasonably identified remains an open question. This study using unprecedented triple-frequency radar observations for the first time unravels the key snow growth processes over diverse geographies. The unique cross-continental datasets from triple-frequency campaigns shed new insights for model evaluation and future satellite missions.

Review article: Social media for managing disasters triggered by natural hazards: a critical review of data collection strategies and actionable insights

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-215-2026
27 January 2026

This paper critically reviews 250 studies (2010–2023) on how social media are used to manage disasters triggered by natural hazards. Supported by a newly created Social Media Literature Database, it identifies trends, data collection and analysis strategies, actionable information types, and major research gaps. Best practices are proposed for community use of social media during disasters and for researchers seeking to enhance its integration into disaster management and resilience strategies.

Impact on cloud properties of reduced-sulphur shipping fuel in the Eastern North Atlantic

The amount of sunlight reflected by marine boundary layer clouds in the Eastern North Atlantic does not change due to a decrease in aerosol caused by reduced sulphur in shipping fuel because adjustments to liquid water path offset the decease in cloud droplet number concentration.

High resolution monthly precipitation isotope estimates across Australia from machine learning

We used a random forest approach to produce estimates of monthly precipitation stable isotope variability from 1962–2023, at high resolution across the entire Australian continent. Comprehensive skill and sensitivity testing shows that our random forest models skilfully predict precipitation isotope values in places and times that observations are not available. We make all outputs freely available, facilitating use in fields from ecology and hydrology to archaeology and forensic science.

Quantifying the time of emergence of the anthropogenic signal in the global land carbon sink

We study when anthropogenic signal becomes detectable in the global land carbon sink, which has risen since the 1950s due to CO₂ fertilization and mid- to high-latitude warming. The signal emerges earlier at the global than at regional scales. Future scenarios (2016–2100) take longer to detect than the historical period (1851–2014) because the signal is weaker relative to larger natural variability. Removing circulation-induced variability with dynamical adjustment shortens the detection time.

Emerging Mineral Dust Source in ’A’ą̈y Chù’ Valley, Yukon, Canada Poses Potential Health Risk via Exposure to Metal and Metalloids Enriched in PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 Size Fractions

Glacial sediment of the ’A’ą̈y Chù’ Valley in Yukon, Canada is exposed to strong winds, and consequently, has become a significant mineral dust source. Mineral dust is known to have an impact on human health, partly due to various metals it contains, with the size of the particles also being an important factor. The goal of this study was to determine the concentration of various metals in the dust, how this relates to dust size, and whether air quality standards were surpassed.

A novel laser-based spectroscopic method reveals the isotopic signatures of nitrous oxide produced by eukaryotic and prokaryotic phototrophs in darkness

We present a new method for the accurate laser-based analysis of N₂O isotopes. For the first time, we measured the Site Preference-N₂O signatures of pure cultures of microalgae and cyanobacteria. Our study is a first step to ultimately develop process-specific N₂O monitoring from aquatic ecosystems. Further research is now needed to determine the occurrence and significance of N₂O emissions from microalgae and cyanobacteria from aquatic ecosystems.

Culturing experiments reveal mechanisms of daily trace element incorporation into Tridacna shells

This study explores daily geochemical variations in giant clam (Tridacna) shells from controlled, isotopically-labelled day-night growth experiments. Results show five times higher daytime calcification rates. Light availability and metabolic activity significantly influence elemental incorporation mechanisms. The findings enhance our understanding of clam geochemistry and growth dynamics, offering valuable insights for studies on past environmental changes.

Remineralisation changes dominate oxygen variability in the North Atlantic

Oxygen is essential to marine life, but the amount of oxygen in the ocean has been decreasing in recent decades. Using observations of oxygen concentration interpolated across a section of the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean, we show that deoxygenation in the region is primarily driven by an increase in oxygen being consumed during remineralisation of organic matter. The impact of this is strongest at depths of around 600 m, where the process drives up to 70 % of the total deoxygenation.

The first Earthquake Early Warning System for the high-speed railway in Italy: enhancing rapidness and operational efficiency during seismic events

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-299-2026
20 January 2026

The first Italian Earthquake Early Warning system protects the Naples-Rome high-speed railway by detecting earthquakes in real time and sending alerts within seconds. Using seismic sensors and smart algorithms, it slows or stops trains only where needed, avoiding full-line shutdowns. Directly linked to train control, it boosts safety and minimizes disruption during potentially damaging earthquakes.