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The extremely hot and dry 2018 summer in central and northern Europe from a multi-faceted weather and climate perspective

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-23-1699-2023
31 May 2023

The objective of this study was to perform a comprehensive, multi-faceted analysis of the 2018 extreme summer in terms of heat and drought in central and northern Europe, with a particular focus on Germany. A combination of favourable large-scale conditions and locally dry soils were related with the intensity and persistence of the events. We also showed that such extremes have become more likely due to anthropogenic climate change and might occur almost every year under +2 °C of global warming.

Quantifying gender gaps in seismology authorship

We investigate women’s representation in seismology to raise awareness of existing gender disparities.
By analysing the authorship of peer-reviewed articles, we identify lower representation of women among single authors, high-impact authors, and highly productive authors. Seismology continues to be a male-dominated field, and trends suggest that parity is decades away. These gaps are an obstacle to women’s career advancement and, if neglected, may perpetuate the leaky-pipeline problem.

Opinion: The scientific and community-building roles of the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) – past, present, and future

Geoengineering indicates methods aiming to reduce the temperature of the planet by means of reflecting back a part of the incoming radiation before it reaches the surface or allowing more of the planetary radiation to escape into space. It aims to produce modelling experiments that are easy to reproduce and compare with different climate models, in order to understand the potential impacts of these techniques. Here we assess its past successes and failures and talk about its future.

Evaluation of liquefaction triggering potential in Italy: a seismic-hazard-based approach

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-23-1685-2023
24 May 2023

In the present study, we analyse ground-motion hazard maps and hazard disaggregation in order to define areas in Italy where liquefaction triggering due to seismic activity can not be excluded. The final result is a screening map for all of Italy that classifies sites in terms of liquefaction triggering potential according to their seismic hazard level. The map and the associated data are freely accessible at the following web address: www.distav.unige.it/rsni/milq.php.

Reversible ice sheet thinning in the Amundsen Sea Embayment during the Late Holocene

Samples of bedrock recovered from below the West Antarctic Ice Sheet show that part of the ice sheet was thinner several thousand years ago than it is now and subsequently thickened. This is important because of concern that present ice thinning in this region may lead to rapid, irreversible sea level rise. The past episode of thinning at this site that took place in a similar, although not identical, climate was not irreversible; however, reversal required at least 3000 years to complete.

Reconstructing ocean carbon storage with CMIP6 Earth system models and synthetic Argo observations

We present a new method for reconstructing ocean carbon using climate models and temperature and salinity observations. To test this method, we reconstruct modelled carbon using synthetic observations consistent with current sampling programmes. Sensitivity tests show skill in reconstructing carbon trends and variability within the upper 2000 m. Our results indicate that this method can be used for a new global estimate for ocean carbon content.

Methane emissions are predominantly responsible for record-breaking atmospheric methane growth rates in 2020 and 2021

Our understanding of recent changes in atmospheric methane has defied explanation. Since 2007, the atmospheric growth of methane has accelerated to record-breaking values in 2020 and 2021. We use satellite observations of methane to show that (1) increasing emissions over the tropics are mostly responsible for these recent atmospheric changes, and (2) changes in the OH sink during the 2020 Covid-19 lockdown can explain up to 34% of changes in atmospheric methane for that year.

Rescuing historical weather observations improves quantification of severe windstorm risks

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-23-1465-2023
15 May 2023

We examine a severe windstorm that occurred in February 1903 and caused significant damage in the UK and Ireland. Using newly digitized weather observations from the time of the storm, combined with a modern weather forecast model, allows us to determine why this storm caused so much damage. We demonstrate that the event is one of the most severe windstorms to affect this region since detailed records began. The approach establishes a new tool to improve assessments of risk from extreme weather.

Causal deep learning models for studying the Earth system

A recent statistical approach for studying relations in the Earth system is to train deep learning (DL) models to predict Earth system variables given one or several others and use interpretable DL to analyse the relations learned by the models. Here, we propose to combine the approach with a theorem from causality research to ensure that the deep learning model learns causal rather than spurious relations. As an example, we apply the method to study soil-moisture–precipitation coupling.

Evaluation of polarimetric ice microphysical retrievals with OLYMPEX campaign data

We present an evaluation of current retrieval techniques in the ice phase applied to polarimetric radar measurements with collocated in situ observations of aircraft conducted over the Olympic Mountains, Washington State, during winter 2015. Radar estimates of ice properties agreed most with aircraft observations in regions with pronounced radar signatures, but uncertainties were identified that indicate issues of some retrievals, particularly in warmer temperature regimes.

Brief communication: The northwest Himalaya towns slipping towards potential disaster

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-23-1425-2023
8 May 2023

The NW Himalaya has been one of the most affected terrains of the Himalaya, subject to disastrous landslides. This article focuses on two towns (Joshimath and Bhatwari) of the NW Himalaya, which have been witnessing subsidence for decades. We used a slope stability simulation to determine the response of the hill slopes accommodating these towns under various loading conditions. We found that the maximum displacement in these hill slopes might reach up to 20–25 m.

Prediction of the absolute hydraulic conductivity function from soil water retention data

The soil hydraulic conductivity function is usually predicted from the water retention curve (WRC) with the requirement of at least one measured conductivity data point for scaling the function. We propose a new scheme of absolute hydraulic conductivity prediction from the WRC without the need of measured conductivity data. Testing the new prediction with independent data shows good results. This scheme can be used when insufficient or no conductivity data are available.

Porting the WAVEWATCH III (v6.07) wave action source terms to GPU

Wind-generated waves play an important role in modifying physical processes at the air–sea interface, but they have been traditionally excluded from climate models due to the high computational cost of running spectral wave models for climate simulations. To address this, our work identified and accelerated the computationally intensive section of WAVEWATCH III on GPU using OpenACC. This allows for high-resolution modelling of atmosphere–wave–ocean feedbacks in century-scale climate integrations.

Selective deuteration as a tool for resolving autoxidation mechanisms in α-pinene ozonolysis

We discuss and show the viability of a method where multiple isotopically labelled precursors are used for probing the formation pathways of highly oxygenated organic molecules (HOMs) from the oxidation of the monoterpene a-pinene. HOMs are very important for secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation in forested regions, and monoterpenes are the single largest source of SOA globally. The fast reactions forming HOMs have thus far remained elusive despite considerable efforts over the last decade.

Particulate organic matter in the Lena River and its delta: from the permafrost catchment to the Arctic Ocean

Arctic warming accelerates permafrost thaw and release of terrestrial organic matter (OM) via rivers to the Arctic Ocean. We compared particulate organic carbon (POC), total suspended matter, and C isotopes (δ13C and Δ14C of POC) in the Lena delta and Lena River along a ∼1600 km transect. We show that the Lena delta, as an interface between the Lena River and the Arctic Ocean, plays a crucial role in determining the qualitative and quantitative composition of OM discharged into the Arctic Ocean.

Patterns and drivers of water quality changes associated with dams in the Tropical Andes

Dams are an important and rapidly growing means of energy generation in the Tropical Andes of South America. To assess the impacts of dams in the region, we assessed differences in the upstream and downstream water quality of all hydropower dams in Colombia. We found evidence of substantial dam-induced changes in water temperature, dissolved oxygen concentration and suspended sediments. Dam-induced changes in Colombian waters violate regulations and are likely impacting aquatic life.

Foreign emissions exacerbate PM2.5 pollution in China through nitrate chemistry

Research on the sources of Chinese PM2.5 pollution has focused on the contributions of China’s domestic emissions. However, the impact of foreign anthropogenic emissions has typically been simplified or neglected. Here we find that foreign anthropogenic emissions play an important role in Chinese PM2.5 pollution through chemical interactions between foreign-transported pollutants and China’s local emissions. Thus, foreign emission reductions are essential for improving Chinese air quality.

Uncertainty in aerosol–cloud radiative forcing is driven by clean conditions

The impact of aerosols on clouds is one of the largest uncertainties in the human forcing of the climate. Aerosol can increase the concentrations of droplets in clouds, but observational and model studies produce widely varying estimates of this effect. We show that these estimates can be reconciled if only polluted clouds are studied, but this is insufficient to constrain the climate impact of aerosol. The uncertainty in aerosol impact on clouds is currently driven by cases with little aerosol.

A multi-disciplinary analysis of the exceptional flood event of July 2021 in central Europe – Part 2: Historical context and relation to climate change

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-23-1287-2023
19 April 2023

Heavy precipitation in July 2021 led to widespread floods in western Germany and neighbouring countries. The event was among the five heaviest precipitation events of the past 70 years in Germany, and the river discharges exceeded by far the statistical 100-year return values. Simulations of the event under future climate conditions revealed a strong and non-linear effect on flood peaks: for +2K global warming, an 18% increase in rainfall led to a 39% increase of the flood peak in the Ahr river.

Brief communication: On the extremeness of the July 2021 precipitation event in western Germany

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-23-1227-2023
17 April 2023

Estimating the severity of a rainfall event based on the damage caused is easy but highly depends on the affected region. A less biased measure for the extremeness of an event is its rarity combined with its spatial extent. In this brief communication, we investigate the sensitivity of such measures to the underlying dataset and highlight the importance of considering multiple spatial and temporal scales using the devastating rainfall event in July 2021 in central Europe as an example.