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Organic soils can be CO₂ sinks in both drained and undrained hemiboreal peatland forests

Biogeosciences
DOI 10.5194/bg-22-4627-2025
14 September 2025

A 2-year study assessed the soil carbon dioxide (CO₂) balance of drained and undrained hemiboreal peatland forests across Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The study sites included a wide variety of nutrient-rich organic soils, ranging from those near the threshold of organic soil definition to deep peat soils. The soils varied in pH, nutrient levels, and C : N ratio, which contributed to the observed behavior of the soils, demonstrating CO₂ sink and source dynamics under both drained and undrained conditions.

Severe beach erosion induced by shoreline deformation after a large-scale reclamation project for the Samcheok liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminal in South Korea

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-3239-2025
10 September 2025

This paper emphasizes the significance of evaluating changes in nearby shorelines prior to undertaking large-scale coastal construction projects, thereby offering insights into strategies that can minimize potential damage. As a result, the study provides an opportunity to explore the consequences of harbor and fishing port development, as well as large-scale reclamation, which can deform wave fields in coastal areas and intensify coastal erosion.

Multi-centennial climate change in a warming world beyond 2100

A new 10-member ensemble simulation with the state-of-the-art Earth system model was employed to study the long-term climate response to sustained greenhouse warming through to the year 2500. The findings show that the projected changes in the forced mean state and internal variability during 2101–2500 differ substantially from the 21st-century projections, emphasizing the importance of multi-century perspectives for understanding future climate change and informing effective mitigation strategies.

Failure of Marmolada Glacier (Dolomites, Italy) in 2022: data-based back analysis of possible collapse mechanisms

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-3027-2025
5 September 2025

The Marmolada Glacier collapse (3 July 2022), one of the deadliest in the Alps, caused 11 fatalities and occurred during an anomalously warm summer. Analysis links the failure to the combined action of permafrost degradation, elevated ice temperatures, hydrostatic pressure, hydraulic jacking and reduced basal friction. No single factor alone explains the failure. The event highlights how climate-driven thermal and hydraulic factors increasingly threaten the stability of cold mountain glaciers.

Biomechanical parameters of marram grass (Calamagrostis arenaria) for advanced modeling of dune vegetation

This study analyzes seasonal biomechanical traits of marram grass at two coastal dune sites using monthly field and lab data from 2022. Observed differences in density, leaf length, and flower stems were found to be wind-independent and transferable across sites. The results support surrogate model development for numerical and physical experiments alike, where using live vegetation is impractical. Results address the knowledge gap on how vegetation influences dune stability and erosion resistance.

flat10MIP: an emissions-driven experiment to diagnose the climate response to positive, zero and negative CO₂ emissions

This study investigates how climate models warm in response to simplified carbon emissions trajectories, refining the understanding of climate reversibility and commitment. Metrics are defined for warming response to cumulative emissions and for the cessation of emissions or ramp-down to net-zero and net-negative levels. Results indicate that previous concentration-driven experiments may have overstated the Zero Emissions Commitment due to emissions rates exceeding historical levels.

Synoptic observation of a full mesoscale eddy lifetime and its secondary instabilities in the Gulf of Mexico

Ocean Science
DOI 10.5194/os-21-1933-2025
4 September 2025

Oceanic eddies are giant swirling currents that help transport heat, nutrients, and pollutants across the ocean. However, their life cycle has never been observed in detail. Using new satellite data, we tracked an intense eddy in the Gulf of Mexico, describing its life cycle from birth during a 6-month period. Our observations reveal small-scale turbulence surrounding it and interactions with other structures that shape its evolution, validating decades of numerical studies.

CYCLOPs: a Unified Framework for Surface Flux-Driven Cyclones Outside the Tropics

Storms strongly resembling hurricanes are sometimes observed to form well outside the tropics, even in polar latitudes. They behave capriciously, developing very rapidly and then dying just as quickly. We show that strong dynamical processes in the atmosphere can sometimes cause it to become much colder locally than the underlying ocean, creating the conditions for hurricanes to form but only over small areas and for short times. We call the resulting storms "CYCLOPs".

A climate suitability index for species distribution modelling applied to terrestrial arthropods in the Mediterranean region

Climate change threatens biodiversity, especially that of arthropods, by altering species' habitats and ecological roles. This study presents a proof of concept for a novel index that models species distributions based on climatic niches, using regional climate model data and focusing on Mediterranean arthropods. The index enables quick assessments of species' climate resilience and offers potential applications for projecting ecological impacts of future climate changes.

Calibration and performance evaluation of PM _2.5 and NO ₂ air quality sensors for environmental epidemiology

This study evaluates PM _2.5 and NO ₂ sensors for their use in health studies. Sensors were calibrated using data from reference instruments, and regression and machine learning models were evaluated, identifying opportunities and limitations in model transferability in both indoor and outdoor environments and showcasing the importance of integrating metadata such as activity logs and diffusive tubes to improve data validation and interpretation during deployment in the houses of the participants.

Turning regret into future disaster preparedness with no regrets

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-2929-2025
29 August 2025

What do we regret about our disaster preparedness? This paper explores the regrets of 438 citizens who were affected by flooding in Germany in 2021. It shows that regret can primarily be associated with inaction (instead of actions), which contrasts with psychological studies from fields other than disaster science. The findings of this study suggest that the no-regret approach could be a suitable framework for moving towards longer-term disaster preparedness to reduce future regrets.

Impact-based temporal clustering of multiple meteorological hazard types in southwestern Germany

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-2885-2025
27 August 2025

Using loss data, we assess when and how single and multiple types of meteorological extremes (river floods and heavy rainfall events, windstorms and convective gusts, and hail) are related. We find that the combination of several types of hazards clusters robustly on a seasonal scale, whereas only some single hazard types occur in clusters. This can be associated with higher losses compared to isolated events. We argue for the relevance of jointly considering multiple types of hazards.

A numerical model of microplastic erosion, transport, and deposition for fluvial systems

Rivers transport microplastic pollution from its source to its eventual marine sink. Rivers are not simple conveyor belts of this pollution. Microplastic will become entrained within the sediments, becoming part of the river catchment environment. We develop a reduced complexity model to capture the transport and deposition of microplastic. By comparing our model to observations from the Têt River, France, we find that large quantities of microplastic must be stored within the river sediments.

Southern Hemisphere tree rings as proxies to reconstruct Southern Ocean upwelling

The Southern Ocean carbon sink is a balance between two opposing forces: CO₂absorption at mid-latitudes and CO₂ outgassing at high latitudes. Radiocarbon analysis can be used to constrain the latter, as upwelling waters outgas old CO₂, diluting atmospheric radiocarbon content. We present tree-ring radiocarbon measurements from Aotearoa / New Zealand and Chile. We show that low radiocarbon in Aotearoa / New Zealand’s Motu Ihupuku / Campbell Island is linked to outgassing in the critical Antarctic Southern Zone.

Groundwater recharge in Brandenburg is declining – but why?

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-2783-2025
19 August 2025

Brandenburg is among the driest federal states in Germany. The low groundwater recharge (GWR) is fundamental to both water supply and the support of natural ecosystems. In this study, we show that the decline of observed discharge and groundwater tables since 1980 can be explained by climate change in combination with an increasing leaf area index. Still, simulated GWR rates remain highly uncertain due to the uncertainty in precipitation trends.

Insights into supraglacial lake drainage dynamics: triangular fracture formation, reactivation and long-lasting englacial features

We study the evolution of a massive lake on the Greenland Ice Sheet using satellite and airborne data and some modelling. The lake is emptying rapidly. Water flows to the glacier’s base through cracks and triangular-shaped moulins that remain visible over the years. Some of them become reactivated. We find features inside the glacier that stem from drainage events with a width of even 1 km. These features are persistent over the years, although they are changing in shape.

Light scattering and microphysical properties of atmospheric bullet rosette ice crystals

Understanding the interaction between cirrus clouds and solar radiation is critical for modeling the Earth’s climate. A common crystal type found in cirrus clouds is the bullet rosette. Here, atmospheric bullet rosettes measured from jet aircraft are analyzed for their morphological and radiative properties. Atmospheric bullet rosettes are found to be more morphologically complex than previously assumed. This complexity has a significant impact on their radiative properties.

Warnings based on risk matrices: a coherent framework with consistent evaluation

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-2657-2025
13 August 2025

Our research presents a new method for determining warning levels for any hazard. Using risk matrices, our framework addresses issues found in other approaches. Illustrative examples demonstrate how the approach works. A powerful method for evaluating warning accuracy is given, allowing for a cycle of continuous improvement in warning services. This research is relevant to a broad audience, from those who develop forecast systems to practitioners who issue or communicate warnings.

Invited perspectives: Thunderstorm intensification from mountains to plains

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-2629-2025
8 August 2025

Strong thunderstorms have been studied mainly over flat terrain in the past. However, they are particularly frequent near European mountain ranges, so observations of such storms are needed. This article gives an overview of our existing knowledge on this topic and presents plans for a large European field campaign with the goals to fill the knowledge gaps, validate tools for thunderstorm warnings, and improve numerical weather prediction near mountains.

Consequences of the Aral Sea restoration for its present physical state: temperature, mixing, and oxygen regime

The Aral Sea is both an example of large-scale environmental degradation caused by human activity and a message of hope through its partial restoration. Our study shows that the restored part of the Aral Sea is now healthy in terms of vertical mixing and oxygenation. However, small perturbations of water level or transparency could significantly alter the entire ecosystem. The results contribute to understanding the consequences of large-scale lake management worldwide.