A national-scale seasonal hydrological forecast system: development and evaluation over Britain Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-21-4681-2017 15 September 2017 The research presented here provides the first evaluation of the skill of a seasonal hydrological forecast for the UK. The forecast scheme combines rainfall forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 forecast system with a national-scale hydrological model to provide estimates of river flows 1 to 3 months ahead. The skill in the combined model is assessed for different seasons and regions of Britain, and the analysis indicates that Autumn/Winter flows can be forecast with reasonable confidence. Read more
Astronomical calibration of the Ypresian timescale: implications for seafloor spreading rates and the chaotic behavior of the solar system? Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-13-1129-2017 11 September 2017 We assembled a very accurate geological timescale from the interval 47.8 to 56.0 million years ago, also known as the Ypresian stage. We used cyclic variations in the data caused by periodic changes in Earthäs orbit around the sun as a metronome for timescale construction. Our new data compilation provides the first geological evidence for chaos in the long-term behavior of planetary orbits in the solar system, as postulated almost 30 years ago, and a possible link to plate tectonics events. Read more
An update on ozone profile trends for the period 2000 to 2016 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-17-10675-2017 11 September 2017 Thanks to the 1987 Montreal Protocol and its amendments, ozone-depleting chlorine (and bromine) in the stratosphere has declined slowly since the late 1990s. Improved and extended long-term ozone profile observations from satellites and ground-based stations confirm that ozone is responding as expected and has increased by about 2 % per decade since 2000 in the upper stratosphere, around 40 km altitude. At lower altitudes, however, ozone has not changed significantly since 2000. Read more
Extracting real-crack properties from non-linear elastic behaviour of rocks: abundance of cracks with dominating normal compliance and rocks with negative Poisson ratios Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics DOI 10.5194/npg-24-543-2017 5 September 2017 A new method of analysing pressure wave dependences is presented and tested against the published experimental data. Upon the results of examination of more than 90 rock samples, it was found that a significant portion of rocks (~ 45 %) exhibit negative Poisson ratios at lower pressures. Such a significant number of naturally auxetic rocks suggests that the occurrence of negative Poisson ratios is not as exotic as assumed previously. Read more
JRAero: the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol v1.0 Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-10-3225-2017 4 September 2017 A global aerosol reanalysis product named the Japanese Reanalysis for Aerosol (JRAero) was constructed by the Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The reanalysis employs a global aerosol transport model developed by MRI and a two-dimensional variational data assimilation method. It assimilates maps of aerosol optical depth (AOD) from MODIS onboard the Terra and Aqua satellites every 6 h and has a TL159 horizontal resolution (approximately 1.1° × 1.1°). Read more
The electric current approach in the solar–terrestrial relationship Annales Geophysicae DOI 10.5194/angeo-35-965-2017 21 August 2017 The sequence of phenomena consisting of solar flares, coronal mass ejections (CMEs), auroral substorm, and geomagnetic storms is mostly a manifestation of electromagnetic energy dissipation. Thus, first of all, it is natural to consider each of them in terms of a sequence of power supply (dynamo), power transmission (electric currents/circuits), and dissipation (mostly observed phenomena), i.e., as an input–output process and the electric current line approach. Read more
Simultaneous measurements of new particle formation at 1 s time resolution at a street site and a rooftop site Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-17-9469-2017 8 August 2017 This study reports the distinct effects of street canyons on new particle formation (NPF) under warm or cold ambient temperature conditions because of on-road vehicle emissions; i.e., stronger condensation sinks are responsible for the reduced NPF in the springtime, but efficient nucleation and partitioning of gaseous species contribute to the enhanced NPF in the wintertime. The oxidization of biogenic organics is suggested to play an important role in growing new particles. Read more
Has dyke development in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta shifted flood hazard downstream? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-21-3991-2017 7 August 2017 In this study we provide a numerical quantification of changes in flood hazard in the Vietnamese Mekong Delta as a result of dyke development. Other important drivers to the alteration of delta flood hazard are also investigated, e.g. tidal level. The findings of our study are substantial valuable for the decision makers in Vietnam to develop holistic and harmonized floods and flood-related issues management plan for the whole delta. Read more
NOx emission trends over Chinese cities estimated from OMI observations during 2005 to 2015 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-17-9261-2017 1 August 2017 We assess NOx emission trends over Chinese cities based on satellite NO2 observations using a method independent of chemical transport models. NOx emissions over 48 Chinese cities have decreased significantly since 2011. Cities with different dominant emission sources (i.e. power, industrial, and transportation sectors) showed variable emission decline timelines that corresponded to the schedules for emission control in different sectors. Read more
An intercomparison of approaches for improving operational seasonal streamflow forecasts Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-21-3915-2017 31 July 2017 Water supply forecasts are critical to support water resources operations and planning. The skill of such forecasts depends on our knowledge of (i) future meteorological conditions and (ii) the amount of water stored in a basin. We address this problem by testing several approaches that make use of these sources of predictability, either separately or in a combined fashion. The main goal is to understand the marginal benefits of both information and methodological complexity in forecast skill. Read more
Every apple has a voice: using stable isotopes to teach about food sourcing and the water cycle Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-21-3799-2017 25 July 2017 Fruits take up soil water as they grow, and thus the fruit water is related to the rain or irrigation the crop receives. We used a novel sampling system to measure the stable isotopes of H and O in the fruit water to determine its geographic origin by comparing it to maps of isotopes in rain. We used this approach to teach an audience of science students and teachers about water cycle concepts and how humans may modify the water cycle through agriculture and irrigation water diversions. Read more
The double high tide at Port Ellen: Doodson’s criterion revisited Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-13-599-2017 20 July 2017 Some places experience double high tides, where the tide starts to ebb for a short while, only to briefly flood again before finally receding. The result is a very long high tide with weak currents, and is important for navigational purposes. The existing theory for when and where double high tides occur does not always capture them, and it can only be applied to double highs occurring on a twice-daily tide. Here, the criterion has been generalized to capture all double high or low tides. Read more
Reviews and syntheses: Systematic Earth observations for use in terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation systems Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-14-3401-2017 19 July 2017 This paper briefly reviews data assimilation techniques in carbon cycle data assimilation and the requirements of data assimilation systems on observations. We provide a non-exhaustive overview of current observations and their uncertainties for use in terrestrial carbon cycle data assimilation, focussing on relevant space-based observations. Read more
The CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS) v1.0: implementation and global carbon balance 2001–2015 Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-10-2785-2017 18 July 2017 The CarbonTracker Data Assimilation Shell (CTDAS) is the new modular implementation of the CarbonTracker Europe (CTE) data assimilation system. We present and document CTDAS and demonstrate its ability to estimate global carbon sources and sinks. We present the latest CTE results including the distribution of the carbon sinks over the hemispheres and between the land biosphere and the oceans. We show the versatility of CTDAS with an overview of the wide range of other applications. Read more
Periodic input of dust over the Eastern Carpathians during the Holocene linked with Saharan desertification and human impact Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-13-897-2017 18 July 2017 We present the first record of dust input into an eastern European bog over the past 10 800 years. We find significant changes in past dust deposition, with large inputs related to both natural and human influences. We show evidence that Saharan desertification has had a significant impact on dust deposition in eastern Europe for the past 6100 years. Read more
Young people’s burden: requirement of negative CO2 emissions Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-8-577-2017 18 July 2017 Global temperature now exceeds +1.25 °C relative to 1880–1920, similar to warmth of the Eemian period. Keeping warming less than 1.5 °C or CO2 below 350 ppm now requires extraction of CO2 from the air. If rapid phaseout of fossil fuel emissions begins soon, most extraction can be via improved agricultural and forestry practices. In contrast, continued high emissions places a burden on young people of massive technological CO2 extraction with large risks, high costs and uncertain feasibility. Read more
Analysis of single-Alter-shielded and unshielded measurements of mixed and solid precipitation from WMO-SPICE Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-21-3525-2017 14 July 2017 Precipitation measurements were combined from eight separate precipitation testbeds to create multi-site transfer functions for the correction of unshielded and single-Alter-shielded precipitation gauge measurements. Site-specific errors and more universally applicable corrections were created from these WMO-SPICE measurements. The importance and magnitude of such wind speed corrections were demonstrated. Read more
Update of the Polar SWIFT model for polar stratospheric ozone loss (Polar SWIFT version 2) Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-10-2671-2017 13 July 2017 The Polar SWIFT model is a fast scheme for calculating the chemistry of stratospheric ozone depletion in polar winter. It is intended for use in global climate models (GCMs) and Earth system models (ESMs) to enable the simulation of mutual interactions between the ozone layer and climate. Read more
Exploring gravity wave characteristics in 3-D using a novel S-transform technique: AIRS/Aqua measurements over the Southern Andes and Drake Passage Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-17-8553-2017 13 July 2017 We introduce a novel 3-D method of measuring atmospheric gravity waves, based around a 3-D Stockwell transform. Our method lets us measure new properties, including wave intrinsic frequencies and phase and group velocities. We apply it to data from the AIRS satellite instrument over the Southern Andes for two consecutive winters. Our results show clear evidence that the waves measured are primarily orographic in origin, and that their group velocity vectors are focused into the polar night jet. Read more
On the long-range offshore transport of organic carbon from the Canary Upwelling System to the open North Atlantic Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-14-3337-2017 13 July 2017 We find that a big portion of the phytoplankton, zooplankton, and detrital organic matter produced near the northern African coast is laterally transported towards the open North Atlantic. This offshore flux sustains a relevant part of the biological activity in the open sea and reaches as far as the middle of the North Atlantic. Our results, obtained with a state-of-the-art model, highlight the fundamental role of the narrow but productive coastal ocean in sustaining global marine life. Read more