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600 years of wine must quality and April to August temperatures in western Europe 1420–2019

This bottle of Riesling from the traditional Bassermann Jordan winery in Deidesheim (Germany) is a relic of the premium wine harvested in 1811. It was named “Comet Wine” after the bright comet that year. The study shows that wine quality can be used to infer summer weather conditions over the past 600 years. After rainy summers with cold winds, wines turned sour, while long periods of high pressure led to excellent qualities. Since 1990, only good wines have been produced due to rapid warming.

Applying global warming levels of emergence to highlight the increasing population exposure to temperature and precipitation extremes

Using a special suite of climate simulations, we determine if and when climate change is detectable and translate this to the global warming prevalent in the corresponding year. Our results show that, at 1.5°C warming, >85 % of the global population (>95 % at 2.0° warming) is already exposed to nighttime temperatures altered by climate change beyond natural variability. Furthermore, even incremental changes in global warming levels result in increased human exposure to emerged climate signals.

A major midlatitude hurricane in the Little Ice Age

A Little Ice Age (LIA) hurricane was characterized using key storm intensity metrics from historical naval records. Its unusual intensity was driven by a higher temperature gradient between continental and coastal atmospheric circulation that drove intense midlatitude extratropical transition. Quantitative attributes embedded in historical records allow multidisciplinary research to extend our understanding of climate processes through the historical period.

Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods?

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024
20 May 2024

High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events.

The perfect storm? Co-occurring climate extremes in East Africa

Climate change affects the interaction, dependence, and joint occurrence of climate extremes. Here we investigate the joint occurrence of pairs of river floods, droughts, heatwaves, crop failures, wildfires, and tropical cyclones in East Africa under past and future climate conditions. Our results show that, across all future warming scenarios, the frequency and spatial extent of these co-occurring extremes will increase in this region, particularly in areas close to the Nile and Congo rivers.

Dependency of the impacts of geoengineering on the stratospheric sulfur injection strategy – Part 2: How changes in the hydrological cycle depend on the injection rate and model used

This study is the second in a two-part series in which we explore the dependency of the impacts of stratospheric sulfur injections on both the model employed and the strategy of injection utilized. The study uncovers uncertainties associated with these techniques to cool climate, highlighting how the simulated climate impacts are dependent on both the selected model and the magnitude of the injections. We also show that estimating precipitation impacts of aerosol injection is a complex task.

Carbon budget concept and its deviation through the pulse response lens

The carbon budget approach is based on a close linear relationship between the global temperature and cumulative emissions. This article reinterprets the carbon budget approach through the lens of the temperature response to an emission pulse in the role of a Green’s function, or as a generalization of TCRE. It shows that inspecting the simple model’s pulse response allows for a prediction of deviations for any possible emission scenario and derivation of a nonlinear carbon budget equation.

Solar radiation modification challenges decarbonization with renewable solar energy

Most solar radiation modification (SRM) simulations assume no physical coupling between mitigation and SRM. We analyze the impact of SRM on photovoltaic (PV) and concentrated solar power (CSP) and find that almost all regions have reduced PV and CSP potential compared to a mitigated or unmitigated scenario, especially in the middle and high latitudes. This suggests that SRM could pose challenges for meeting energy demands with solar renewable resources.

Possible role of anthropogenic climate change in the record-breaking 2020 Lake Victoria levels and floods

Heavy rainfall in eastern Africa between late 2019 and mid 2020 caused devastating floods and landslides and drove the levels of Lake Victoria to a record-breaking maximum in May 2020. In this study, we characterize the spatial extent and impacts of the floods in the Lake Victoria basin and investigate how human-induced climate change influenced the probability and intensity of the record-breaking lake levels and flooding by applying a multi-model extreme event attribution methodology.

A past and present perspective on the European summer vapor pressure deficit

The main aim of this paper is to present the summer vapor pressure deficit (VPD) reconstruction dataset for the last 400 years over Europe based on δ18O records by using a random forest approach. We provide both a spatial and a temporal long-term perspective on the past summer VPD and new insights into the relationship between summer VPD and large-scale atmospheric circulation. This is the first gridded reconstruction of the European summer VPD over the past 400 years.

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