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"Snake" is crawling through the sea ice

The Antarctica Factor: model uncertainties reveal upcoming sea-level risk

  • Press release
  • 14 February 2020

Sea-level rise due to ice loss in Antarctica could become a major risk for coastal protection even in the near term, scientists say. Within this century already, due to Antarctica alone, global sea level might rise up to three times as much as it did in the last century, according to research published in the EGU journal Earth System Dynamics.

Highlight articles

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Methane emissions from the Munich Oktoberfest

We demonstrate for the first time that large festivals can be significant methane sources, though they are not included in emission inventories. We combined in situ measurements with a Gaussian plume model to determine the Oktoberfest emissions and show that they are not due solely to human biogenic emissions, but are instead primarily fossil fuel related. Our study provides the foundation to develop reduction policies for such events and new pathways to mitigate fossil fuel methane emissions.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Deconvolution of boundary layer depth and aerosol constraints on cloud water path in subtropical stratocumulus decks

Cloud water content and the number of droplets inside clouds covary with boundary layer depth. This covariation may amplify the change in water content due to a change in droplet number inferred from long-term observations. Taking this into account shows that the change in water content for increased droplet number in observations and high-resolution simulations agrees in shallow boundary layers. Meanwhile, deep boundary layers are under-sampled in process-scale simulations and observations.

Earth System Dynamics

Back to the future II: tidal evolution of four supercontinent scenarios

We have confirmed that there is a supertidal cycle associated with the supercontinent cycle. As continents drift due to plate tectonics, oceans also change size, controlling the strength of the tides and causing periods of supertides. In this work, we used a coupled tectonic–tidal model of Earth’s future to test four different scenarios that undergo different styles of ocean closure and periods of supertides. This has implications for the Earth system and for other planets with liquid oceans.


Scaling carbon fluxes from eddy covariance sites to globe: synthesis andevaluation of the FLUXCOM approach

We test the approach of producing global gridded carbon fluxes based on combining machine learning with local measurements, remote sensing and climate data. We show that we can reproduce seasonal variations in carbon assimilated by plants via photosynthesis and in ecosystem net carbon balance. The ecosystem’s mean carbon balance and carbon flux trends require cautious interpretation. The analysis paves the way for future improvements of the data-driven assessment of carbon fluxes.

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