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Delineating the technosphere: definition, categorization, and characteristics

The technosphere – including buildings, infrastructure, and all other non-living human creations – is a major part of our planet, but it is not often considered as an integrated part of Earth system processes. Here we propose a refined definition of the technosphere, intended to help with integration. We also characterize the functional end uses, map the global distribution, and discuss the catalytic properties that underlie the exponential growth of the trillion tonne technosphere.

Evidence for multi-rifting in the Variscan–Alpine cycle transition: insights from the European western Southern Alps

We address the transition between the Paleozoic Variscan and Alpine Mesozoic–Cenozoic cycles using tectono-stratigraphy and thermochronology. This transition unfolds through a multi-phase rifting history. An initial rifting stage occurred in the early Permian, followed in the early–middle Permian by a phase of transcurrent tectonics. This was succeeded by a period of erosion/non-deposition in the middle Permian. Crustal stretching in the Middle Triassic marked the onset of the Alpine cycle.

High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw

We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. We find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. However, the additional warming and hence the additional risk of triggering other climate tipping points from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost remain small.

Potential for equation discovery with AI in the climate sciences

AI is impacting science, providing key data insights, but most algorithms are statistical requiring cautious "out-of-sample" extrapolation. Yet climate research concerns predicting future climatic states. We consider a new method of AI-led equation discovery. Equations offer process interpretation and more robust predictions. We recommend this method for climate analysis, suggesting illustrative application to atmospheric convection, land–atmosphere CO₂ flux, and global ocean circulation models.

Modeling 2020 regulatory changes in international shipping emissions helps explain anomalous 2023 warming

On 1 January 2020, international shipping vessels were required to substantially reduce the amount of particulate they emit to improve air quality. In this work we demonstrate how this regulatory change contributed to the anomalous warming observed in recent months using climate model simulations that include such a change. Future policies should also perhaps consider their impact on climate, and climate modelers should promptly include those changes in future modeling efforts.

Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a gigantic natural orchestra playing with the temperature of Pacific waters and influencing air temperature and rainfall worldwide. Naturally, the “loudness” or amplitude of ENSO has effects on climate; however, consonance of its various tones, or phases of different ENSO oscillatory components, can exert causal effects on rainfall in some areas in China. In different regions, different aspects of ENSO dynamics can predict rainfall amounts.

Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5

Governments are targeting net-zero emissions later this century with the aim of limiting global warming in line with the Paris Agreement. However, few studies explore the long-term consequences of reaching net-zero emissions and the effects of a delay in reaching net-zero. We use the Australian Earth system model to examine climate evolution under net-zero emissions. We find substantial changes which differ regionally, including continued Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice reduction.

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Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy

We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models

From running climate models to using their outputs to identify impacts, modeling the integrated human–Earth system is expensive. This work presents a method to identify a smaller subset of models from the full set that preserves the uncertainty characteristics of the full set. This results in a smaller number of runs that an impact modeler can use to assess how uncertainty propagates from the Earth to the human system, while still capturing the range of outcomes provided by climate models.

Cautionary remarks on the planetary boundary visualisation

Our paper examines the visual representation of the planetary boundary concept, which helps convey Earth’s capacity to sustain human life. We identify three issues: exaggerated impact sizes, confusing color patterns, and inaccessibility for colour-vision deficiency. These flaws can lead to overstating risks. We suggest improving these visual elements for more accurate and accessible information for decision-makers.

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