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Recent degradation of interior Alaska permafrost mapped with ground surveys, geophysics, deep drilling, and repeat airborne lidar

The Cryosphere
DOI 10.5194/tc-15-3555-2021
10 September 2021

Permafrost is actively degrading across high latitudes due to climate warming. We combined thousands of end-of-summer active layer measurements, permafrost temperatures, geophysical surveys, deep borehole drilling, and repeat airborne lidar to quantify permafrost warming and thawing at sites across central Alaska. We calculate the mass of permafrost soil carbon potentially exposed to thaw over the past 7 years (0.44 Pg) is similar to the yearly carbon dioxide emissions of Australia.

fv3gfs-wrapper: a Python wrapper of the FV3GFS atmospheric model

FV3GFS is a weather and climate model written in Fortran. It uses Fortran so that it can run fast, but this makes it hard to add features if you do not (or even if you do) know Fortran. We have written a Python interface to FV3GFS that lets you import the Fortran model as a Python package. We show examples of how this is used to write “model” scripts, which reproduce or build on what the Fortran model can do. You could do this same wrapping for any compiled model, not just FV3GFS.

Thaw-driven mass wasting couples slopes with downstream systems, and effects propagate through Arctic drainage networks

Climate-driven landslides are transforming glacially conditioned permafrost terrain, coupling slopes with aquatic systems, and triggering a cascade of downstream effects. Nonlinear intensification of thawing slopes is primarily affecting headwater systems where slope sediment yields overwhelm stream transport capacity. The propagation of effects across watershed scales indicates that western Arctic Canada will be an interconnected hotspot of thaw-driven change through the coming millennia.

Mapping the aerodynamic roughness of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using ICESat-2: evaluation over the K-transect

We developed a method to estimate the aerodynamic properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using either UAV or ICESat-2 elevation data. We show that this new method is able to reproduce the important spatiotemporal variability in surface aerodynamic roughness, measured by the field observations. The new maps of surface roughness can be used in atmospheric models to improve simulations of surface turbulent heat fluxes and therefore surface energy and mass balance over rough ice worldwide.

A discontinuous Galerkin finite-element model for fast channelized lava flows v1.0

Lava flows present a natural hazard to communities around volcanoes and are usually slow-moving (< 1-5 cm/s). Lava flows during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawai’i, however, reached speeds as high as 11 m/s. To investigate these dynamics we develop a new lava flow computer model that incorporates a nonlinear expression for the fluid viscosity. Model results indicate that the lava flows at Site 8 of the eruption displayed shear thickening behavior due to the flow’s high bubble content.

Faster decline and higher variability in the sea ice thickness of the marginal Arctic seas when accounting for dynamic snow cover

We re-estimate pan-Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) values by combining data from the Envisat and CryoSat-2 missions with data from a new, reanalysis-driven snow model. Because a decreasing amount of ice is being hidden below the waterline by the weight of overlying snow, we argue that SIT may be declining faster than previously calculated in some regions. Because the snow product varies from year to year, our new SIT calculations also display much more year-to-year variability.

FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration

This paper presents an update of the FaIR simple climate model, which can estimate the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions on the global climate. This update aims to significantly increase the structural simplicity of the model, making it more understandable and transparent. This simplicity allows it to be implemented in a wide range of environments, including Excel. We suggest that it could be used widely in academia, corporate research, and education.

Comment on “Exceptionally high heat flux needed to sustain the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream” by Smith-Johnsen et al. (2020)

The modelling of Smith-Johnson et al. (The Cryosphere, 14, 841–854, 2020) suggests that a very large heat flux of more than 10 times the usual geothermal heat flux is required to have initiated or to control the huge Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Our comparison with known hotspots, such as Iceland and Yellowstone, shows that such an exceptional heat flux would be unique in the world and is incompatible with known geological processes that can raise the heat flux.

Atmospheric extremes caused high oceanward sea surface slope triggering the biggest calving event in more than 50 years at the Amery Ice Shelf

The unexpected September 2019 calving event from the Amery Ice Shelf, the largest since 1963 and which occurred almost a decade earlier than expected, was triggered by atmospheric extremes. Explosive twin polar cyclones provided a deterministic role in this event by creating oceanward sea surface slope triggering the calving. The observed record-anomalous atmospheric conditions were promoted by blocking ridges and Antarctic-wide anomalous poleward transport of heat and moisture.

On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change

The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers and consequent loss of ice mass is one of the most obvious signs of a changing climate and has significant implications for the hydrology and natural hazards in mountain landscapes. Consistent with our understanding of the human role in temperature change, we demonstrate that the central estimate of the size of the human-caused mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed loss. This assessment resolves some important inconsistencies in the literature.

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