Highlight articles

This page features highlight articles from EGU's open access journals Geoscientific Model Development and Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. These articles of particular interest are selected by journal editors.

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sympl (v. 0.4.0) and climt (v. 0.15.3) – towards a flexible framework for building model hierarchies in Python

In the same way that the fruit fly or the yeast cell serve as model systems in biology, climate scientists use a range of computer models to gain a fundamental understanding of our climate system. These models range from extremely simple models that can run on your phone to those that require supercomputers. Sympl and climt are packages that make it easy for climate scientists to build a hierarchy of such models using Python, which facilitates easy to read and self-documenting models.

The Variable Infiltration Capacity model version 5 (VIC-5): infrastructure improvements for new applications and reproducibility

Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) is a widely used hydrologic model. This paper documents the development of VIC version 5, which includes a reconfiguration of the model source code to support a wider range of modeling applications. It also represents a significant step forward for the VIC user community in terms of support for a range of modeling applications, reproducibility, and scientific robustness.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Global fatal landslide occurrence from 2004 to 2016

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-18-2161-2018
23 August 2018

Landslides are a hazard in terrestrial environments with slopes. This paper presents global analysis on patterns of fatal landsliding between 2004 and 2016, using a database collated from media reporting. The data show ~ 56 000 people were killed in 4862 landslide events. Active landslide years coincide with patterns of regional rainfall: most landslides were rainfall triggered. For the first time, analysis shows the number of landslides triggered by human activity increased with time.

Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0

Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications from agriculture to disaster risk reduction. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks or even months in advance. This paper introduces GloFAS-Seasonal, the first operational global-scale seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system producing openly available forecasts of high and low river flow out to 4 months ahead.

Crossing the chasm: how to develop weather and climate models for next generation computers?

Weather and climate models consist of complex software evolving in response to both scientific requirements and changing computing hardware. After years of relatively stable hardware, more diversity is arriving. It is possible that this hardware diversity and the pace of change may lead to an inability for modelling groups to manage their software development. This “chasm” between aspiration and reality may need to be bridged by large community efforts rather than traditional “in-house” efforts.

Brief communication: Loss of life due to Hurricane Harvey

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-18-1073-2018
19 April 2018

An analysis was made of the loss of life directly caused by Hurricane Harvey. Information was collected for 70 fatalities that occurred directly due to the event. Most of the fatalities occurred in the greater Houston area, which was most severely affected by extreme rainfall and heavy flooding. The majority of fatalities in this area were recovered outside the designated 100- and 500-year flood zones. Most fatalities occurred due to drowning (81 %), particularly in and around vehicles.

A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial for strengthening future projections. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. We describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project, which brings together the marine ecosystem modelling community to inform long-term projections of marine ecosystems.

Intercomparison of Antarctic ice-shelf, ocean, and sea-ice interactions simulated by MetROMS-iceshelf and FESOM 1.4

MetROMS and FESOM are two ocean/sea-ice models which resolve Antarctic ice-shelf cavities and consider thermodynamics at the ice-shelf base. We simulate the period 1992–2016 with both models, and with two options for resolution in FESOM, and compare output from the three simulations. Ice-shelf melt rates, sub-ice-shelf circulation, continental shelf water masses, and sea-ice processes are compared and evaluated against available observations.

Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-18-1097-2018
6 April 2018

In this study, engineers and social scientists explore opportunities for improving the utility of flood hazard maps through focus groups with end users. Focus groups revealed that end users preferred legends that describe flood intensity both quantitatively and with qualitative reference points, as well as flood scenario descriptions that describe the magnitude (rather than frequency) of the flood. Illustrations of pluvial flooding, or flooding caused directly by rainfall, were highly desired.

Developing fragility functions for aquaculture rafts and eelgrass in the case of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-18-145-2018
10 January 2018

We developed fragility functions of aquaculture rafts and eelgrass based on damage data and numerical simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami. These fragility functions explain damage characteristics of both items against tsunami flow velocity. By understanding these characteristics, damage estimation and loss assessment as well as marine/fishery disaster mitigation plan and management in other areas of the world from future tsunamis can be implemented.

NH Natural Hazards Highlight articles