• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-5201-2026
• 23 October 2026

Conventional design storms may underestimate flood exposure by neglecting the spatial organization of rainfall. We compare deterministic and stochastic storm scenarios in coastal Louisiana. Stochastic storm transposition reveals 11 518 buildings overlooked by the deterministic storm, demonstrating that spatial rainfall variability can fundamentally alter estimates of exposure and structural damage, with implications for floodplain management, infrastructure design and climate-resilient planning.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-4861-2026
• 8 October 2026

Natural systems are complex and uncertain, making probabilistic forecasts essential. Representing and communicating all uncertainties is challenging but vital for risk management. A multidisciplinary review identified common challenges across hazards and proposes a shared framework based on a clear hierarchy of uncertainties, complete forecasts, rigorous model evaluation, and effective communication to support decision-making.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-4589-2026
• 24 September 2026

We explore five core challenges that need to be addressed in order to move towards the Comprehensive Disaster and Climate Risk Management approach. This approach has been proposed within the newly emerging paradigm of a more holistic approach to managing the risks associated with climatic and/or non-climatic hazards and non-climatic risk drivers. We elaborate on each challenge, discuss why they matter for comprehensive disaster risk management, and provide ideas of how to overcome them.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-4503-2026
• 17 September 2026

Using historical records and mathematical models, researchers created maps that show the probability of different areas being affected by ballistic fallout from volcanic eruptions in Stromboli, Italy. Hazard maps were developed for both major explosions and paroxysms as well as for the two categories combined together by assuming a relative proportion. By using a temporal model of the explosive events, first probability maps of ballistic fallout in the next 10 and 50 years are finally presented.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-4309-2026
• 7 September 2026

Impacts from extreme weather events may become more severe due to increased likelihood of compounding events under global warming, which challenge present day climate modelling and forecasting capacities. In this perspective we reflect on the usability of compound event research to bridge the gap between academic research and real-world applications.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3723-2026
• 10 August 2026

We present a framework linking projected rainfall with hydro-mechanical processes to assess landslide occurrences in a Mediterranean area, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Despite generally drier soils, landslide frequency rises because shifts in the timing and intensity of rainfall, altering antecedent soil moisture during triggering events. This counterintuitive result highlights the importance of rainfall patterns in slope stability and informs climate-risk assessment and adaptation planning.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3443-2026
• 28 July 2026

Gas production from the Groningen gas field caused felt earthquakes, resulting in field closure in 2023. Despite this, earthquakes are expected to continue for years to come. This study models whether gas injection may be used to reduce earthquakes. The results suggest that, under continued zero-production scenarios, gas injection would decrease the number of earthquakes and the associated seismic risk compared to a no-injection scenario, offering a potential avenue for active mitigation.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3345-2026
• 22 July 2026

Climate extremes like floods, heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires are disrupting Europe’s transport. This study combines a review of past events and future projections to assess current losses and the future exposure of transport infrastructure. Exposure to extremes is projected to rise, but lower emissions can reduce it. Urgent action is needed to reduce emissions and adapt the Trans-European Transport Network to a changing climate.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3231-2026
• 13 July 2026

Flooding is a growing risk for communities around Puget Sound, where rising seas and changing rainfall patterns combine with rivers and tides. We used advanced computer models to simulate decades of water levels and river flows to better understand how often and how severely flooding may occur in the future. Our results show that climate change will increase both the frequency and extent of flooding, highlighting the urgent need for adaptation planning.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-2673-2026
• 10 June 2026

Pluvial (flash) floods, caused by intense local rainfall, result in surface runoff and overland flow, making them different from fluvial floods. A new Pluvial Flood Index (PFI) combines precipitation, hydrological, and hydrodynamic processes to assess surface flooding hazards. The PFI, based on flood hazard areas, helps forecast flash floods and supports real-time warning systems, aiding municipal decision-making, preparedness, and planning.

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