Highlight articles

The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2: Production and evaluation

This is the second of two papers that document the creation of the New European Wind Atlas (NEWA). The paper includes a detailed description of the technical and practical aspects that went into running the mesoscale simulations and the microscale downscaling for generating the climatology. A comprehensive evaluation of each component of the NEWA model chain is presented using observations from a large set of tall masts located all over Europe.

Impact of horizontal resolution on global ocean–sea ice model simulationsbased on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model IntercomparisonProject phase 2 (OMIP-2)

This paper presents global comparisons of fundamental global climate variables from a suite of four pairs of matched low- and high-resolution ocean and sea ice simulations to assess the robustness of climate-relevant improvements in ocean simulations associated with moving from coarse (∼1°) to eddy-resolving (∼0.1°) horizontal resolutions. Despite significant improvements, greatly enhanced horizontal resolution does not deliver unambiguous bias reduction in all regions for all models.

An improved mechanistic model for ammonia volatilization in Earth system models: Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen version 2 (FANv2)

Mostly emitted by the agricultural sector, ammonia has an important role in atmospheric chemistry. We developed a model to simulate how ammonia emissions respond to changes in temperature and soil moisture, and we evaluated agricultural ammonia emissions globally. The simulated emissions agree with earlier estimates over many regions, but the results highlight the variability of ammonia emissions and suggest that emissions in warm climates may be higher than previously thought.

The making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 1: Model sensitivity

Wind energy resource assessment routinely uses numerical weather prediction model output. We describe the evaluation procedures used for picking the suitable blend of model setup and parameterizations for simulating European wind climatology with the WRF model. We assess the simulated winds against tall mast measurements using a suite of metrics, including the Earth Mover’s Distance, which diagnoses the performance of each ensemble member using the full wind speed and direction distribution.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Storm tide amplification and habitat changes due to urbanization of a lagoonal estuary

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-2415-2020
13 October 2020

The geometry of estuaries is often altered through dredging to make room for ships and with extensive landfill over wetlands to enable development. Here, we use historical maps to help create computational models of seawater flow around and into a lagoonal bay of New York City for the 1880s and 2010s. Our results show that these past man-made changes cause higher coastal storm tides and that they result specifically from deeper depths, expanded inlet width, and landfill.

Predicting the morphology of ice particles in deep convection using the super-droplet method:development and evaluation of SCALE-SDM 0.2.5-2.2.0, -2.2.1, and -2.2.2

Using the super-droplet method, we constructed a detailed numerical model of mixed-phase clouds based on kinetic description and subsequently demonstrated that a large-eddy simulation of a cumulonimbus which predicts ice particle morphology without assuming ice categories or mass–dimension relationships is possible. Our results strongly support the particle-based modeling methodology’s efficacy for simulating mixed-phase clouds.

HyLands 1.0: a hybrid landscape evolution model to simulate the impact of landslides and landslide-derived sediment on landscape evolution

Landslides shape the Earth’s surface and are a dominant source of terrestrial sediment. Rivers, then, act as conveyor belts evacuating landslide-produced sediment. Understanding the interaction among rivers and landslides is important to predict the Earth’s surface response to past and future environmental changes and for mitigating natural hazards. We develop HyLands, a new numerical model that provides a toolbox to explore how landslides and rivers interact over several timescales.

Fire Weather Index: the skill provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-2365-2020
22 September 2020

Forecasting of daily fire weather indices driven by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system is shown to have a good skill up to 10 d ahead in predicting flammable conditions in most regions of the world. The availability of these forecasts through the Copernicus Emergency Management Service can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries.

Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020
27 August 2020

There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of so-called SSP scenarios (the successors of the IPCC SRES and previous representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios). The projected CO ₂ concentrations range from 350 ppm for low-emission scenarios by 2150 to more than 2000 ppm under the high-emission scenarios. We also provide concentrations, latitudinal gradients, and seasonality for most of the other 42 considered GHGs.

NH Natural Hazards Highlight articles

Highlight articles

The Making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 2: Production and evaluation

Impact of horizontal resolution on global ocean–sea ice model simulationsbased on the experimental protocols of the Ocean Model IntercomparisonProject phase 2 (OMIP-2)

An improved mechanistic model for ammonia volatilization in Earth system models: Flow of Agricultural Nitrogen version 2 (FANv2)

The making of the New European Wind Atlas – Part 1: Model sensitivity

Storm tide amplification and habitat changes due to urbanization of a lagoonal estuary

Predicting the morphology of ice particles in deep convection using the super-droplet method:development and evaluation of SCALE-SDM 0.2.5-2.2.0, -2.2.1, and -2.2.2

HyLands 1.0: a hybrid landscape evolution model to simulate the impact of landslides and landslide-derived sediment on landscape evolution

Fire Weather Index: the skill provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system

Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

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