Highlight articles

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This page features highlight articles from EGU's open access journals Geoscientific Model Development and Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences. These articles of particular interest are selected by journal editors.

133 items found

10 20 50

A process-based evaluation of the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model (ICAR) 1.0.1

This study conducts an in-depth process-based evaluation of the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model, employing idealized simulations to increase the understanding of the model and develop recommendations to maximize the probability that its results are correct for the right reasons. The results show that when model skill is evaluated from statistical metrics based on comparisons to surface observations only, such an analysis may not reflect the skill of the model in capturing atmospheric processes like gravity waves and cloud formation.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

A statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-893-2021
30 March 2021

We present the formulation of an open-source, statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs) for use in hazard and risk assessment applications. We demonstrate the capability of the model to replicate observed behaviour of TCs, including coastal landfall rates which are of significant importance for risk assessments.

Development of a MetUM (v 11.1) and NEMO (v 3.6) coupled operational forecastmodel for the Maritime Continent – Part 1: Evaluation of ocean forecasts

This article describes the development and ocean forecast evaluation of an atmosphere–ocean coupled prediction system for the Maritime Continent (MC) domain, which includes the eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans. Overall, the model forecast deviation of SST, SSH, and subsurface temperature and salinity fields relative to observation is within acceptable error limits of operational forecast models.

Radar-based assessment of hail frequency in Europe

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021
10 March 2021

In this study we present a unique 10  year climatology of severe convective storm tracks for a large European area covering Germany, France, Belgium and Luxembourg. For the period 2005–2014, a high-resolution hail potential composite of 1×1 km2 is produced from two-dimensional radar reflectivity and lightning data.

A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI)used in the European Drought Observatory (EDO)

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-481-2021
19 February 2021

Building on almost 10 years of expertise and operational application of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), which is implemented within the European Commission’s European Drought Observatory (EDO) for the purposes of early warning and monitoring of agricultural droughts in Europe, this paper proposes a revised version of the index.

Coordinating an operational data distribution network for CMIP6 data

The distribution of data contributed to the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is via the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF). The ESGF is a network of internationally distributed sites that together work as a federated data archive.

A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storyline

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021
8 February 2021

Extreme weather events are generally associated with unusual dynamical conditions, yet the signal-to-noise ratio of the dynamical aspects of climate change that are relevant to extremes appears to be small, and the nature of the change can be highly uncertain.

Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of rare floods

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-3521-2020
15 January 2021

This work proposes methods for reducing the computational requirements of hydrological simulations for the estimation of very rare floods that occur on average less than once in 1000 years. These methods enable the analysis of long streamflow time series (here for example 10 000 years) at low computational costs and with modelling uncertainty. They are to be used within continuous simulation frameworks with long input time series and are readily transferable to similar simulation tasks.

New global characterisation of landslide exposure

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-3413-2020
12 January 2021

Landslides cause thousands of fatalities and cost billions of dollars of damage worldwide every year, but different inventories of landslide events can have widely diverging completeness. This can lead to spatial biases in our understanding of the impacts. Here we use a globally homogeneous model of landslide hazard and exposure to provide consistent estimates of where landslides are most likely to cause damage to people, roads and other critical infrastructure at 1 km resolution.

A systematic exploration of satellite radar coherence methods for rapid landslide detection

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-3197-2020
25 December 2020

Satellite radar could provide information on landslide locations within days of an earthquake or rainfall event anywhere on Earth, but until now there has been a lack of systematic testing of possible radar methods, and most methods have been demonstrated using a single case study event and data from a single satellite sensor. Here we test five methods on four events, demonstrating their wide applicability and making recommendations on when different methods should be applied in the future.

NH Natural Hazards Highlight articles