• Geoscientific Model Development
• DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022
• 23 January 2023

We present a global fire emission model based on the GFED model framework with a spatial resolution of 500 m. The higher resolution allowed for a more detailed representation of spatial heterogeneity in fuels and emissions. Specific modules were developed to model, for example, emissions from fire-related forest loss and belowground burning. Results from the 500 m model were compared to GFED4s, showing that global emissions were relatively similar but that spatial differences were substantial.

Read more

• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-22-3041-2022
• 12 December 2022

Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) have attracted increased research attention recently. In this work, we review GLOF research papers published between 2017 and 2021 and complement the analysis with research community insights gained from the 2021 GLOF conference we organized. The transdisciplinary character of the conference together with broad geographical coverage allowed us to identify progress, trends and challenges in GLOF research and outline future research needs and directions.

Read more

• Geoscientific Model Development
• DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-6817-2022
• 28 November 2022

Terrain horizon and sky view factor are crucial quantities for many geoscientific applications; e.g. they are used to account for effects of terrain on surface radiation in climate and land surface models. Because typical terrain horizon algorithms are inefficient for high-resolution (< 30 m) elevation data, we developed a new algorithm based on a ray-tracing library. A comparison with two conventional methods revealed both its high performance and its accuracy for complex terrain.

Read more

• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-22-2963-2022
• 25 November 2022

Encouraging a systematic use of flood marks for more comprehensive flood risk management, we collected a large number of marks along the Kinzig, southwestern Germany, and tested them for plausibility and temporal continuance. Despite uncertainty, the marks appeared to be an overall consistent and practical source that may also increase flood risk awareness. A wide agreement between the current flood hazard maps and the collected flood marks moreover indicated a robust local hazard assessment.

Read more

• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-22-2891-2022
• 18 November 2022

Estimating the magnitude of rare to very rare floods is a challenging task due to a lack of sufficiently long observations. The challenge is even greater in large river basins, where precipitation patterns and amounts differ considerably between individual events and floods from different parts of the basin coincide. We show that a hydrometeorological model chain can provide plausible estimates in this setting and can thus inform flood risk and safety assessments for critical infrastructure.

Read more

• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-22-2771-2022
• 11 November 2022

Here we present survey responses of 350 natural hazard community members to key challenges in natural hazards research and step changes to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals. Challenges identified range from technical (e.g. model development, early warning) to governance (e.g. co-production with community members). Step changes needed are equally broad; however, the majority of answers showed a need for wider stakeholder engagement, increased risk management and interdisciplinary work.

Read more

• Geoscientific Model Development
• DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-5481-2022
• 24 October 2022

The task of evaluating competing models is fundamental to science. Models are evaluated based on an objective function, the choice of which ultimately influences what scientists learn from their observations. The mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE) are two such functions. Both are widely used, yet there remains enduring confusion over their use. This article reviews the theoretical justification behind their usage, as well as alternatives for when they are not suitable.

Read more

• Geoscientific Model Development
• DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-5371-2022
• 21 October 2022

With the eWaterCycle platform, we are providing the hydrological community with a platform to conduct their research that is fully compatible with the principles of both open science and FAIR science. The eWatercyle platform gives easy access to well-known hydrological models, big datasets and example experiments. Using eWaterCycle hydrologists can easily compare the results from different models, couple models and do more complex hydrological computational research.

Read more

• Geoscientific Model Development
• DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-5127-2022
• 23 September 2022

Firedrake is a state-of-the-art system that automatically generates highly optimised code for simulating finite-element (FE) problems in geophysical fluid dynamics. It creates a separation of concerns between employing the FE method and implementing it. Here, we demonstrate the applicability and benefits of Firedrake for simulating geodynamical flows, with a focus on the slow creeping motion of Earth’s mantle over geological timescales, which is ultimately the engine driving our dynamic Earth.

Read more

• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-22-2201-2022
• 19 September 2022

Recent drought events caused enormous damage in Europe. We therefore questioned the existence and effect of current drought management strategies on the actual impacts and how drought is perceived by relevant stakeholders. Over 700 participants from 28 European countries provided insights into drought hazard and impact perception and current management strategies. The study concludes with an urgent need to collectively combat drought risk via a European macro-level drought governance approach.

Read more