• Geoscientific Model Development
• DOI 10.5194/gmd-14-3553-2021
• 23 July 2021

Lava flows present a natural hazard to communities around volcanoes and are usually slow-moving (< 1-5 cm/s). Lava flows during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawai’i, however, reached speeds as high as 11 m/s. To investigate these dynamics we develop a new lava flow computer model that incorporates a nonlinear expression for the fluid viscosity. Model results indicate that the lava flows at Site 8 of the eruption displayed shear thickening behavior due to the flow’s high bubble content.

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• Geoscientific Model Development
• DOI 10.5194/gmd-14-3007-2021
• 9 July 2021

This paper presents an update of the FaIR simple climate model, which can estimate the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions on the global climate. This update aims to significantly increase the structural simplicity of the model, making it more understandable and transparent. This simplicity allows it to be implemented in a wide range of environments, including Excel. We suggest that it could be used widely in academia, corporate research, and education.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-1467-2021
• 1 July 2021

This is a perspective based on personal experience on whether a large number of landslides caused by a single trigger (e.g. an earthquake, an intense rainfall, a rapid snowmelt event) or by multiple triggers in a period can be predicted, in space and time, considering the consequences of slope failures.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-1409-2021
• 24 June 2021

A cluster of 13 large mass flow events including five detachments of entire valley glaciers was observed in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan, in 1973–2019. The local clustering provides additional understanding of the influence of temperature, seismic activity, and geology. Most events occurred in summer of years with mean annual air temperatures higher than the past 46-year trend. The glaciers rest on weak bedrock and are rather short, making them sensitive to friction loss due to meltwater.

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• Geoscientific Model Development
• DOI 10.5194/gmd-14-2187-2021
• 28 May 2021

As our knowledge and understanding of atmospheric aerosol particle evolution and impact grows, designing community mechanistic models requires an ability to capture increasing chemical, physical and therefore numerical complexity. As the landscape of computing software and hardware evolves, it is important to profile the usefulness of emerging platforms in tackling this complexity. With this in mind we present JlBox v1.1, written in Julia.

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• Geoscientific Model Development
• DOI 10.5194/gmd-14-1657-2021
• 3 May 2021

This study conducts an in-depth process-based evaluation of the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model, employing idealized simulations to increase the understanding of the model and develop recommendations to maximize the probability that its results are correct for the right reasons. The results show that when model skill is evaluated from statistical metrics based on comparisons to surface observations only, such an analysis may not reflect the skill of the model in capturing atmospheric processes like gravity waves and cloud formation.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-893-2021
• 30 March 2021

We present the formulation of an open-source, statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs) for use in hazard and risk assessment applications. We demonstrate the capability of the model to replicate observed behaviour of TCs, including coastal landfall rates which are of significant importance for risk assessments.

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• Geoscientific Model Development
• DOI 10.5194/gmd-14-1081-2021
• 12 March 2021

This article describes the development and ocean forecast evaluation of an atmosphere–ocean coupled prediction system for the Maritime Continent (MC) domain, which includes the eastern Indian and western Pacific oceans. Overall, the model forecast deviation of SST, SSH, and subsurface temperature and salinity fields relative to observation is within acceptable error limits of operational forecast models.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021
• 10 March 2021

In this study we present a unique 10  year climatology of severe convective storm tracks for a large European area covering Germany, France, Belgium and Luxembourg. For the period 2005–2014, a high-resolution hail potential composite of 1×1 km2 is produced from two-dimensional radar reflectivity and lightning data.

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• Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
• DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-481-2021
• 19 February 2021

Building on almost 10 years of expertise and operational application of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), which is implemented within the European Commission’s European Drought Observatory (EDO) for the purposes of early warning and monitoring of agricultural droughts in Europe, this paper proposes a revised version of the index.

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