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Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario

Ocean Science
DOI 10.5194/os-19-1595-2023
17 November 2023

How much the Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rate can increase in response to global warming remains an open question. To achieve this, we compared an ocean simulation under present-day atmospheric condition to a one under late 23rd century atmospheric conditions. The ocean response to the perturbation includes a decrease in the production of cold dense water and an increased intrusion of warmer water onto the continental shelves. This induces a substantial increase in ice shelf basal melt rates.

Universal differential equations for glacier ice flow modelling

We developed a new modelling framework combining numerical methods with machine learning. Using this approach, we focused on understanding how ice moves within glaciers, and we successfully learnt a prescribed law describing ice movement for 17 glaciers worldwide as a proof of concept. Our framework has the potential to discover important laws governing glacier processes, aiding our understanding of glacier physics and their contribution to water resources and sea-level rise.

Machine learning for numerical weather and climate modelling: a review

Machine learning (ML) is an increasingly popular tool in the field of weather and climate modelling. While ML has been used in this space for a long time, it is only recently that ML approaches have become competitive with more traditional methods. In this review, we have summarized the use of ML in weather and climate modelling over time; provided an overview of key ML concepts, methodologies, and terms; and suggested promising avenues for further research.

ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification’s contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement

The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the planet. Here, we use climate model projections to quantify for the first time how this faster warming in the Arctic impacts the timing of crossing the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds defined in the Paris Agreement. We show that under plausible emissions scenarios that fail to meet the Paris 1.5 °C target, a hypothetical world without faster warming in the Arctic would breach that 1.5 °C target around 5 years later.

Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics

Many systems in nature are characterized by the coexistence of different stable states for given environmental parameters and external forcing. Examples can be found in different fields of science, ranging from ecosystems to climate dynamics. Perturbations can lead to critical transitions (tipping) from one stable state to another. The study of these transitions requires the development of new methodological approaches that allow for modelling, analysing and predicting them.

ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world

Adapting to climate change requires an understanding of how extreme weather events are changing. We propose a new approach to examine how the consequences of a particular weather pattern have been made worse by climate change, using an example of a severe windstorm that occurred in 1903. When this storm is translated into a warmer world, it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago.

Soil-biodegradable plastic films do not decompose in a lake sediment over 9 months of incubation

Agriculture relies heavily on plastic mulch films, which may be transported to aquatic environments. We investigated the breakdown of soil-biodegradable agricultural mulch films in lake sediments. After 40 weeks, films were intact, and no significant CO2 or CH4 was produced from the biodegradable mulch films. We conclude that the mulch films we used have a low biodegradability in lake sediments. The sediment lacks the microbes needed to break down the biodegradable plastics that were used here.

Biomineralization of amorphous Fe-, Mn- and Si-rich mineral phases by cyanobacteria under oxic and alkaline conditions

Iron and manganese are poorly soluble in oxic and alkaline solutions but much more soluble under anoxic conditions. As a result, authigenic minerals rich in Fe and/or Mn have been viewed as diagnostic of anoxic conditions. However, here we reveal a new case of biomineralization by specific cyanobacteria, forming abundant Fe(III)- and Mn(IV)-rich amorphous phases under oxic conditions in an alkaline lake. This might be an overlooked biotic contribution to the scavenging of Fe from water columns.

Emulating lateral gravity wave propagation in a global chemistry–climate model (EMAC v2.55.2) through horizontal flux redistribution

The columnar approach of gravity wave (GW) schemes results in dynamical model biases, but parallel decomposition makes horizontal GW propagation computationally unfeasible. In the global model EMAC, we approximate it by GW redistribution at one altitude using tailor-made redistribution maps generated with a ray tracer. More spread-out GW drag helps reconcile the model with observations and close the 60°S GW gap. Polar vortex dynamics are improved, enhancing climate model credibility.

Methane emissions due to reservoir flushing: a significant emission pathway?

Biogeosciences
DOI 10.5194/bg-20-4057-2023
25 September 2023

Based on a large dataset of seasonally resolved methane (CH4) pore water concentrations in a reservoir’s sediment, we assess the significance of CH4 emissions due to reservoir flushing. In the studied reservoir, CH4 emissions caused by one flushing operation can represent 7 %–14 % of the annual CH4 emissions and depend on the timing of the flushing operation. In reservoirs with high sediment loadings, regular flushing may substantially contribute to the overall CH4 emissions.

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