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Diurnal land surface energy balance partitioning estimated from the thermodynamic limit of a cold heat engine

Turbulent fluxes represent an efficient way to transport heat and moisture from the surface into the atmosphere. Due to their inherently highly complex nature, they are commonly described by semiempirical relationships. What we show here is that these fluxes can also be predicted by viewing them as the outcome of a heat engine that operates between the warm surface and the cooler atmosphere and that works at its limit.

sympl (v. 0.4.0) and climt (v. 0.15.3) – towards a flexible framework for building model hierarchies in Python

In the same way that the fruit fly or the yeast cell serve as model systems in biology, climate scientists use a range of computer models to gain a fundamental understanding of our climate system. These models range from extremely simple models that can run on your phone to those that require supercomputers. Sympl and climt are packages that make it easy for climate scientists to build a hierarchy of such models using Python, which facilitates easy to read and self-documenting models.

Wet avalanches: long-term evolution in the Western Alps under climate and human forcing

In the context of a warming climate, mountain environments are especially vulnerable to a change in the risk pattern. Our study focuses on the past evolution of wet avalanches, likely triggered by warmer temperatures destabilizing the snow cover. In the last 3300 years we observed an increase of wet avalanche occurrence related to human activities, intensifying pressure on forest cover, as well as favorable climate conditions such as warmer temperatures coinciding with retreating glacier phases.

The Variable Infiltration Capacity model version 5 (VIC-5): infrastructure improvements for new applications and reproducibility

Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) is a widely used hydrologic model. This paper documents the development of VIC version 5, which includes a reconfiguration of the model source code to support a wider range of modeling applications. It also represents a significant step forward for the VIC user community in terms of support for a range of modeling applications, reproducibility, and scientific robustness.

Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe

Climate change projections of temperature extremes are particularly uncertain in central Europe. We demonstrate that varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks in current climate models leads to an enhancement of model differences; thus, they can explain the large uncertainties in extreme temperature projections. Using an observation-based constraint, we show that the strong drying and large increase in temperatures exhibited by models on the hottest day in central Europe are highly unlikely.

The point of no return for climate action: effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance

We determine the point of no return (PNR) for climate change, which is the latest year to take action to reduce greenhouse gases to stay, with a certain probability, within thresholds set by the Paris Agreement. For a 67 % probability and a 2 K threshold, the PNR is the year 2035 when the share of renewable energy rises by 2 % per year. We show the impact on the PNR of the speed by which emissions are cut, the risk tolerance, climate uncertainties and the potential for negative emissions.

Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 ºC global warming target

Results show that an additional 6.97 million people will be exposed to droughts in China under a 1.5 ºC target relative to reference period, mostly in the east of China. Demographic change is the primary contributor to exposure. Moderate droughts contribute the most to exposure among 3 grades of drought. Our simulations suggest that drought impact on people will continue to be a large threat to China under the 1.5 ºC target. It will be helpful in guiding adaptation and mitigation strategies.

Improving the representation of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in climate models: impact of a new parameterization for the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

Earth system models provide simplified accounts of human–Earth interactions. Most current models treat CO₂ emissions as a homogeneously distributed forcing. However, this paper presents a new parameterization, POPEM (POpulation Parameterization for Earth Models), that computes anthropogenic CO₂ emissions at a grid point scale. A major advantage of this approach is the increased capacity to understand the potential effects of localized pollutant emissions on long-term global climate statistics.

Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0

Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications from agriculture to disaster risk reduction. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks or even months in advance. This paper introduces GloFAS-Seasonal, the first operational global-scale seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system producing openly available forecasts of high and low river flow out to 4 months ahead.

Climate impact on the development of Pre-Classic Maya civilisation

We present two new palaeoclimatic records for the central Maya lowlands, adding valuable new insights to the impact of climate change on the development of Maya civilisation. Lake Tuspan’s diatom record is indicative of precipitation changes at a local scale, while a beach ridge elevation record from the world’s largest late Holocene beach ridge plain provides a regional picture.

CL Climate: Past, Present & Future Highlight articles

Highlight articles

Diurnal land surface energy balance partitioning estimated from the thermodynamic limit of a cold heat engine

sympl (v. 0.4.0) and climt (v. 0.15.3) – towards a flexible framework for building model hierarchies in Python

Wet avalanches: long-term evolution in the Western Alps under climate and human forcing

The Variable Infiltration Capacity model version 5 (VIC-5): infrastructure improvements for new applications and reproducibility

Varying soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks explain divergent temperature extremes and precipitation projections in central Europe

The point of no return for climate action: effects of climate uncertainty and risk tolerance

Population exposure to droughts in China under the 1.5 ºC global warming target

Improving the representation of anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in climate models: impact of a new parameterization for the Community Earth System Model (CESM)

Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal v1.0

Climate impact on the development of Pre-Classic Maya civilisation

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