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This page features highlight articles from EGU's open access journals Climate of the Past, Earth System Dynamics, Geoscientific Model Development and Weather and Climate Dynamics. These articles of particular interest are selected by journal editors.

274 items found

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Towards automatic finite-element methods for geodynamics via Firedrake

Firedrake is a state-of-the-art system that automatically generates highly optimised code for simulating finite-element (FE) problems in geophysical fluid dynamics. It creates a separation of concerns between employing the FE method and implementing it. Here, we demonstrate the applicability and benefits of Firedrake for simulating geodynamical flows, with a focus on the slow creeping motion of Earth’s mantle over geological timescales, which is ultimately the engine driving our dynamic Earth.

The 852/3 CE Mount Churchill eruption: examining the potential climatic and societal impacts and the timing of the Medieval Climate Anomaly in the North Atlantic region

We assess the climatic and societal impact of the 852/3 CE Alaska Mount Churchill eruption using environmental reconstructions, historical records and climate simulations. The eruption is associated with significant Northern Hemisphere summer cooling, despite having only a moderate sulfate-based climate forcing potential; however, evidence of a widespread societal response is lacking. We discuss the difficulties of confirming volcanic impacts of a single eruption even when it is precisely dated.

Glacial runoff buffers droughts through the 21st century

Global climate models suggest that droughts could worsen over the coming century. In mountain basins with glaciers, glacial runoff can ease droughts, but glaciers are retreating worldwide. We analysed how one measure of drought conditions changes when accounting for glacial runoff that changes over time. Surprisingly, we found that glacial runoff can continue to buffer drought throughout the 21st century in most cases, even as the total amount of runoff declines.

Downscaling of climate change scenarios for a high-resolution, site-specific assessment of drought stress risk for two viticultural regions with heterogeneous landscapes

We modelled water budget developments of viticultural growing regions on the spatial scale of individual vineyard plots with respect to landscape features like the available water capacity of the soils, slope, and aspect of the sites. We used an ensemble of climate simulations and focused on the occurrence of drought stress. The results show a high bandwidth of projected changes where the risk of potential drought stress becomes more apparent in steep-slope regions.

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

We explore the long-term dynamics of Earth’s climate and carbon cycles under a pair of contrasting scenarios to the year 2300 using six models that include both climate and carbon cycle dynamics. One scenario assumes very high emissions, while the second assumes a peak in emissions, followed by rapid declines to net negative emissions. We show that the models generally agree that warming is roughly proportional to carbon emissions but that many other aspects of the model projections differ.

Training a supermodel with noisy and sparse observations: a case study with CPT and the synch rule on SPEEDO – v.1

In this study, we present a novel formulation to build a dynamical combination of models, the so-called supermodel, which needs to be trained based on data. Previously, we assumed complete and noise-free observations. Here, we move towards a realistic scenario and develop adaptations to the training methods in order to cope with sparse and noisy observations. The results are very promising and shed light on how to apply the method with state of the art general circulation models.

Technical Note: Past and future warming – direct comparison on multi-century timescales

Global mean surface temperatures are rising to levels unprecedented in over 100 000 years. This conclusion takes into account both recent global warming and likely future warming, which thereby enables a direct comparison with paleotemperature reconstructions on multi-century timescales.

Coupling human and natural systems for sustainability: experience from China’s Loess Plateau

To understand the dynamics of a coupled human and natural system (CHANS) and promote its sustainability, we propose a conceptual “pattern-process-service-sustainability” cascade framework. The use of this framework is systematically illustrated by a review of CHANS research experience in China’s Loess Plateau in terms of coupling landscape patterns and ecological processes, linking ecological processes to ecosystem services, and promoting social-ecological sustainability.

Impact of bioenergy crop expansion on climate–carbon cycle feedbacks in overshoot scenarios

The deployment of bioenergy crops for capturing carbon from the atmosphere facilitates global warming mitigation via generating negative CO2 emissions. Here, we explored the consequences of large-scale energy crops deployment on the land carbon cycle. The land-use change for energy crops leads to carbon emissions and loss of future potential increase in carbon uptake by natural ecosystems. This impact should be taken into account by the modelling teams and accounted for in mitigation policies.

Arctic glaciers and ice caps through the Holocene:a circumpolar synthesis of lake-based reconstructions

This paper synthesizes 66 records of glacier variations over the Holocene from lake archives across seven Arctic regions. We find that summers only moderately warmer than today drove major environmental change across the Arctic in the early Holocene, including the widespread loss of glaciers. In comparison, future projections of Arctic temperature change far exceed estimated early Holocene values in most locations, portending the eventual loss of most of the Arctic’s small glaciers.

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