Highlight articles

This page features highlight articles from EGU's open access journals Earth Surface Dynamics, Geoscientific Model Development and Solid Earth. These articles of particular interest are selected by journal editors.

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How can geologic decision-making under uncertainty be improved?

Solid Earth
DOI 10.5194/se-10-1469-2019
3 September 2019

In this paper, we outline the key insights from decision-making research about how, when faced with uncertainty, humans constrain decisions through the use of heuristics (rules of thumb), making them vulnerable to systematic and suboptimal decision biases. We also review existing strategies to debias decision-making that have applicability in the geosciences, giving special attention to strategies that make use of information technology and artificial intelligence.

Improved methodologies for Earth system modelling of atmospheric soluble iron and observation comparisons using the Mechanism of Intermediate complexity for Modelling Iron (MIMI v1.0)

MIMI v1.0 was designed for use within Earth system models to simulate the 3-D emission, atmospheric processing, and deposition of iron and its soluble fraction. Understanding the iron cycle is important due to its role as an essential micronutrient for ocean phytoplankton; its supply limits primary productivity in many of the world’s oceans. Human activity has perturbed the iron cycle, and MIMI is capable of diagnosing many of these impacts; hence, it is important for future climate studies.

A global delta dataset and the environmental variables that predict delta formation on marine coastlines

River deltas are valuable resources that support biodiversity and human habitation. Despite this we do not have a global census of deltas nor do we know the conditions that promote their formation. We surveyed 5399 river mouths greater than 50 m wide and found that 2174 (40%) create a delta. The conditions that lead to delta formation are high sediment input and low wave and tide conditions. These results can be used to understand how deltas will adapt to environmental changes.

Fault-controlled dolomitization in the Montagna dei Fiori Anticline (Central Apennines, Italy): record of a dominantly pre-orogenic fluid migration

The dolomitized intervals of the Lower Jurassic deposits exposed in the Montagna dei Fiori Anticline (Central Apennines, Italy) have been investigated. Accordingly, two fault-related dolomitization events were recognised and interpreted as having occurred before and during the Apenninic orogeny. The analyses suggest significant involvement of evaporitic fluids in both events, most likely derived from the underlying Upper Triassic Burano Formation in the detachment level.

Evaluating post-glacial bedrock erosion and surface exposure duration by coupling in situ optically stimulated luminescence and 10Be dating

Assessing the impact of glaciation at the Earth’s surface requires simultaneous quantification of the impact of climate variability on past glacier fluctuations and on bedrock erosion. Here we present a new approach for evaluating post-glacial bedrock surface erosion in mountainous environments by combining two different surface exposure dating methods. This approach can be used to estimate how bedrock erosion rates vary spatially and temporally since glacier retreat in an alpine environment.

Alluvial channel response to environmental perturbations: fill-terrace formation and sediment-signal disruption

We performed seven physical experiments to explore terrace formation and sediment export from a braided alluvial river system that is perturbed by changes in water discharge, sediment supply, or base level. Each perturbation differently affects (1) the geometry of terraces and channels, (2) the timing of terrace formation, and (3) the transient response of sediment discharge. Our findings provide guidelines for interpreting fill terraces and sediment export from fluvial systems.

Induced seismicity in geologic carbon storage

To meet the goal of the Paris Agreement to limit temperature increase below 2 ºC, geologic carbon storage (GCS) will be necessary at the gigatonne scale. But to successfully deploy GCS, seismicity induced by CO₂injection should be controlled and maintained below a threshold that does not generate nuisances to the population. We conclude that felt induced seismicity can be minimized provided that a proper site characterization, monitoring and pressure management are performed.

The Bortoluzzi Mud Volcano (Ionian Sea, Italy) and its potential for tracking the seismic cycle of active faults

The Ionian Sea in southern Italy is at the center of active convergence between the Eurasian and African plates, with many known M_w > 7.0 earthquakes. Here, a recently discovered mud volcano (called the Bortoluzzi Mud Volcano or BMV) was surveyed during the Seismofaults 2017 cruise (May 2017). The BMV is the active emergence of crustal fluids probably squeezed up during the seismic cycle. As such, the BMV may potentially be used to track the seismic cycle of active faults.

Time-lapse gravity and levelling surveys reveal mass loss and ongoing subsidence in the urban subrosion-prone area of Bad Frankenhausen, Germany

Subrosion, i.e. the underground leaching of soluble rocks, causes disastrous sinkhole events worldwide. We investigate the accompanying mass transfer using quarter-yearly time-lapse gravity campaigns over 4 years in the town of Bad Frankenhausen, Germany. After correcting for seasonal soil water content, we find evidence of underground mass loss and attempt to quantify its amount. This is the first study of its kind to prove the feasibility of this approach in an urban area.

Terrainbento 1.0: a Python package for multi-model analysis in long-term drainage basin evolution

Terrainbento 1.0 is a Python package for modeling the evolution of the surface of the Earth over geologic time (e.g., thousands to millions of years). Despite many decades of effort by the geomorphology community, there is no one established governing equation for the evolution of topography. Terrainbento 1.0 thus provides 28 alternative models that support hypothesis testing and multi-model analysis in landscape evolution.

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