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Propagating meteorological uncertainty in physically based mountain snow modeling

Improving mountain snow prediction requires better representation of meteorological uncertainty. This study generates meteorological ensembles accounting for topography, gauge undercatch, and large-scale atmospheric patterns. Driving a physics-based snow model calibrated using a Large Sample Emulator with these ensembles propagates forcing uncertainty into snow accumulation and melt, producing probablistic estimates for data assimilation and hydrological forecasting.

Temperate marine macrophytes are highly variable sources of Biogenic Volatile Organic Compounds – a comparative study from the Baltic Sea and NE Atlantic

Biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) emitted by Earth’s ecosystems have profound climate impacts, but emissions from marine benthic sources are poorly quantified. We quantified BVOC emission rates from three macrophytes across two contrasting marine regions and found highly diverse emission profiles with high intra‑ and interspecific variability. Our results underscore the need for more high-quality data, so that macrophyte emissions can eventually be integrated into marine BVOC budgets.

Historical climate extremes in Europe and the connection between spring precipitation and summer heat

We analyse the link between dry springs and hot summers in Europe over the past 600 years. Starting with a study of the heat summer of 1473, which followed dry spring conditions in Southeastern Europe, we use the ModE-RA data set family to statistically analyse the link. We find that the link is strongest in regions where evaporation is moisture-limited. Hot summers are preceded by increased blocking over north-central Europe and a positive East Atlantic pattern in spring.

Invited perspective: Uncertainties in natural systems may be uncomfortable, but ignoring them would be absurd

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-4861-2026
8 October 2026

Natural systems are complex and uncertain, making probabilistic forecasts essential. Representing and communicating all uncertainties is challenging but vital for risk management. A multidisciplinary review identified common challenges across hazards and proposes a shared framework based on a clear hierarchy of uncertainties, complete forecasts, rigorous model evaluation, and effective communication to support decision-making.

From manual classification to transformer-based language models: assessing the quality and consistency of historical convective event records

Before measuring instruments, thunderstorms and hail were recorded only in written reports. We analysed around 7000 reports from 1000 to 1817 and, using a rule-based workflow, linguistically decoded the intensity of the thunderstorm and hail events described. The annual cycle derived from this corresponds well with modern observations. With these data, language models can be trained to reliably classify such events and make large collections of text accessible for climate research.

Pokémon Trading Cards reveal visual stereotypes of natural minerals

Pokémon cards offer an unexpected 30-year record of how popular culture depicts minerals. Analyzing 223 illustrations revealed a "universal crystal template" reducing natural minerals to a shared visual stereotype: giant, translucent, symmetrical crystals inside caves. While these images oversimplify geological reality, their global familiarity and the diverse mineral examples already represented make this collection an excellent educational hook to inspire interest in authentic Earth science.

Decoded Antarctic snow accumulation history reconciles observed and modeled trends in accumulation and large-scale warming patterns

Snow accumulation on the Antarctic Ice Sheet could increase with greenhouse warming, storing water that would otherwise raise sea level. Employing multiple Earth system model simulations and reconstructions, we detect a warming-driven increase in accumulation consistent with greenhouse gas forcing, but observations can only be matched if wind and meltwater impacts on large-scale surface warming patterns are accounted for. This implies that predictions ignoring these effects are overconfident.

Origin of low ozone above western North America: an investigation of sources and trends

Background ozone over Western North America is increasing despite local emission reductions, driven by intensifying transport from Southeast Asia, expanded global shipping, and rising aircraft emissions in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS). By analyzing the ozone 'lower tail' (<33rd percentile), this study identifies growing remote influences and shifting trans-Pacific transport patterns that are fundamentally altering the region's background atmospheric state.

Assessing Earth system responses in mitigation scenarios with activity-driven simulation of carbon dioxide removal

Earth system models can simulate CO₂ removal by representing the activity that draws down atmospheric CO₂, e.g. growing bioenergy crops for energy production with carbon capture and storage or enhancing the oceans’ alkalinity. We describe a simulation framework, spanning the modeling chain from integrated assessment to Earth system models, that allows separating the intrinsic efficiency of CO₂ removal and the overall atmospheric CO₂ reduction, the latter being affected by Earth system feedbacks.

Ocean dynamics amplify remote warming effects of reforestation

Reforestation is a key strategy for tackling climate change, but forests influence climate beyond carbon storage, and some effects can cause warming in distant regions, offsetting their cooling benefits. Using a global climate model, we studied how oceans mediate these distant effects over centuries. We found that ocean processes amplify the warming in distant regions, particularly at high latitudes, highlighting the importance of considering the full long-term climate response of reforestation.

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