Know your correlation: An interactive game
Natural Hazards (NH)
This dice-rolling game simulates the interaction between hazards, risk and inter-dependency; inter-dependency affects the chance of hazards (loss) exceeding a critical threshold.
Introductory level, for the widest audience. No equations! For relatively new starters in the field of catastrophe risk management, or PhD students studying compound or multi-hazards studying compound or or multi-hazard risk.
This training highlights how diversification is fundamental in the spread of risk, and how correlation (a.k.a. dependency) destroys diversification. If we get dependency wrong, we may mis-estimate risk and mis-price risk etc.
Key themes:
- Raising awareness of dependency (e.g. between hazards, lines of business, peril-regions) What is it? Why does it matter in my day job?
- The main metrics – Annual average loss (AAL) and 1-in-200 year return period losses.
- With limited events (observed or simulated), how do we cautiously interpret simulation modelling?