Alluvial plain dynamics in the southern Amazonian foreland basin Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-7-453-2016 10 May 2016 This paper analyses the behaviour of 12 tributaries of the Río Mamoré and their influence on alluvial plain dynamics. These rivers are extremely active: between 1984 and 2014, 7 of these 12 rivers underwent a total of 41 crevasses and 29 avulsions. Most of the sedimentary load of these rivers is deposited on the alluvial plains before they reach the Mamoré. Crevasses and avulsions are not controlled by ENSO cycles, but rather are the result of intrabasinal processes. Read more
Revolutions in energy input and material cycling in Earth history and human history Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-7-353-2016 22 April 2016 We identify six past revolutions in energy input and material cycling in Earth and human history. We find that human energy use has now reached a magnitude comparable to the biosphere, and conclude that a prospective sustainability revolution will require scaling up new solar energy technologies and the development of much more efficient material recycling systems. Our work was inspired by recognising the connections between Earth system science and industrial ecology at the “LOOPS” workshop. Read more
Differential climate impacts for policy-relevant limits to global warming: the case of 1.5 ∘C and 2 ∘C Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-7-327-2016 21 April 2016 We present for the first time a comprehensive assessment of key climate impacts for the policy relevant warming levels of 1.5 °C and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We report substantial impact differences in intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, regional water availability and agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. The increase in climate impacts is particularly pronounced in tropical and sub-tropical regions. Read more
Early warning signals of tipping points in periodically forced systems Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-7-313-2016 13 April 2016 We find early warnings of abrupt changes in complex dynamical systems such as the climate where the usual early warning indicators do not work. In particular, these are systems that are periodically forced, for example by the annual cycle of solar insolation. We show these indicators are good theoretically in a general setting then apply them to a specific system, that of the Arctic sea ice, which has been conjectured to be close to such a tipping point. We do not find evidence of it. Read more
Imprints of climate forcings in global gridded temperature data Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-7-231-2016 11 March 2016 Using regression analysis, near-surface temperatures from several gridded data sets were investigated for the presence of components attributable to external climate forcings and to major internal climate variability modes, over the 1901-2010 period. The spatial patterns of local temperature response and their combination in globally averaged temperature were shown and discussed, with special focus on highlighting the inter-dataset contrasts. Read more
Delaying future sea-level rise by storing water in Antarctica Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-7-203-2016 10 March 2016 Sea level will continue to rise for centuries. We investigate the option of delaying sea-level rise by pumping ocean water onto Antarctica. Due to wave propagation ice is discharged much faster back into the ocean than expected from pure advection. A millennium-scale storage of >80% of the additional ice requires a distance of >700km from the coastline. The pumping energy required to elevate ocean water to mitigate a sea-level rise of 3mm/yr exceeds 7% of current global primary energy supply. Read more
Topology of sustainable management of dynamical systems with desirable states: from defining planetary boundaries to safe operating spaces in the Earth system Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-7-21-2016 18 January 2016 The debate about a safe and just operating space for humanity and the possible pathways towards and within it requires an analysis of the inherent dynamics of the Earth system and of the options for influencing its evolution. We present and illustrate with examples a conceptual framework for performing such an analysis not in a quantitative, optimizing mode, but in a qualitative way that emphasizes the main decision dilemmas that one may face in the sustainable management of the Earth system. Read more
Decomposing uncertainties in the future terrestrial carbon budget associated with emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem simulations using the ISI-MIP results Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-6-435-2015 13 July 2015 Our MS focused on uncertainties terrestrial C cycling under newly developed scenarios with CMIP 5 experiment. This study is first results to figure out the relative uncertainties of projected terrestrial C cycling in multiple projection components. Only using our new model inter-comparison project datasets enables us to evaluate various uncertainty sources in projection periods. The information about relative uncertainties are useful for climate science and the climate change impact evaluation. ISI-MIP results">Read more
Path independence of climate and carbon cycle response over a broad range of cumulative carbon emissions Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-5-409-2014 24 November 2014 Recent studies have identified an approximately proportional relationship between global warming and cumulative carbon emissions. This relationship – referred to as the transient climate response to cumulative carbon emissions (TCRE) – is useful for climate policy applications. We show that the TCRE is constant for cumulative emissions lower than ~1500 GtC, but declines for higher cumulative emissions. We also find the TCRE to decrease with increasing emission rate. Read more
Projecting Antarctic ice discharge using response functions from SeaRISE ice-sheet models Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-5-271-2014 14 August 2014 In this paper, the authors attempt to estimate the uncertainty range of future ice discharge from Antarctica by combining uncertainty in the climatic forcing, the oceanic response and the ice-sheet model response. Read more
