A simple explanation for the sensitivity of the hydrologic cycle to surface temperature and solar radiation and its implications for global climate change Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-4-455-2013 5 December 2013 The global hydrologic cycle is likely to increase in strength with global warming, although some studies indicate that warming due to solar absorption may result in a different sensitivity than warming due to an elevated greenhouse effect. Here we show that these sensitivities of the hydrologic cycle can be derived analytically from an extremely simple surface energy balance model that is constrained by the assumption that vertical convective exchange within the atmosphere operates at the thermodynamic limit of maximum power. Read more
Critical impacts of global warming on land ecosystems Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-4-347-2013 8 October 2013 Here we present a macro-scale analysis of climate change impacts on terrestrial ecosystems based on newly developed sets of climate scenarios featuring a step-wise sampling of global mean temperature increase between 1.5 and 5 K by 2100. Read more
The impact of nitrogen and phosphorous limitation on the estimated terrestrial carbon balance and warming of land use change over the last 156 yr Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-4-333-2013 16 September 2013 We examine the impact of land use and land cover change (LULCC) over the period from 1850 to 2005 using an Earth system model that incorporates nitrogen and phosphorous limitation on the terrestrial carbon cycle. Read more
Climate response to imposed solar radiation reductions in high latitudes Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-4-301-2013 2 September 2013 The results of this paper suggest that, until emissions reductions are sufficient to limit the warming influence of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations, polar reductions in solar radiation, if they could be efficiently and effectively implemented, warrant further research as an approach to moderating the early stages of both high-latitude and global warming. Read more
Consistent increase in Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability across CMIP-5 models Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-4-287-2013 28 August 2013 The possibility of an impact of global warming on the Indian monsoon is of critical importance for the large population of this region. Future projections within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP-3) showed a wide range of trends with varying magnitude and sign across models. Here the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is evaluated in 20 CMIP-5 models for the period 1850 to 2100. CMIP-5 models">Read more
Carbon farming in hot, dry coastal areas: an option for climate change mitigation Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-4-237-2013 31 July 2013 We present a comprehensive, interdisciplinary project which demonstrates that large-scale plantations of Jatropha curcas – if established in hot, dry coastal areas around the world – could capture 17–25 t of carbon dioxide per hectare per year from the atmosphere (over a 20 yr period). Read more
Scenario and modelling uncertainty in global mean temperature change derived from emission-driven global climate models Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-4-95-2013 8 April 2013 We compare future changes in global mean temperature in response to different future scenarios which, for the first time, arise from emission-driven rather than concentration-driven perturbed parameter ensemble of a global climate model. Read more
A scaling approach to project regional sea level rise and its uncertainties Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-4-11-2013 23 January 2013 Here, we present an alternative approach to derive regional sea level changes for a range of emission and land ice melt scenarios, combining probabilistic forecasts of a simple climate model (MAGICC6) with the new CMIP5 general circulation models. Our regional sea level projections and the diagnosed uncertainties provide an improved basis for coastal impact analysis and infrastructure planning for adaptation to climate change. Read more
Effects of land cover change on temperature and rainfall extremes in multi-model ensemble simulations Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-3-213-2012 26 November 2012 The impact of historical land use induced land cover change on regional-scale climate extremes is examined using four climate models within the Land Use and Climate, IDentification of robust impacts project. Read more
Urbanization suitability maps: a dynamic spatial decision support system for sustainable land use Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-3-157-2012 20 November 2012 Recent developments in land consumption assessment identify the need to implement integrated evaluation approaches, with particular attention to the development of multidimensional tools for guiding and managing sustainable land use. Land use policy decisions are implemented mostly through spatial planning and its related zoning. We propose a novel methodological approach to identify a decision-making process for land use allocation. Read more
