Highlight articles

Statistical estimation of global surface temperature response to forcing under the assumption of temporal scaling

This paper presents efficient Bayesian methods for linear response models of global mean surface temperature that take into account long-range dependence. We apply the methods to the instrumental temperature record and historical model runs in the CMIP5 ensemble to provide estimates of the transient climate response and temperature projections under the Representative Concentration Pathways.

Back to the future II: tidal evolution of four supercontinent scenarios

We have confirmed that there is a supertidal cycle associated with the supercontinent cycle. As continents drift due to plate tectonics, oceans also change size, controlling the strength of the tides and causing periods of supertides. In this work, we used a coupled tectonic–tidal model of Earth’s future to test four different scenarios that undergo different styles of ocean closure and periods of supertides. This has implications for the Earth system and for other planets with liquid oceans.

Earth system data cubes unravel global multivariate dynamics

The ever-growing availability of data streams on different subsystems of the Earth brings unprecedented scientific opportunities. However, researching a data-rich world brings novel challenges. We present the concept of Earth system data cubes to study the complex dynamics of multiple climate and ecosystem variables across space and time. Using a series of example studies, we highlight the potential of effectively considering the full multivariate nature of processes in the Earth system.

A multi-model analysis of teleconnected crop yield variability in a range of cropping systems

In this study, we analyse the impacts of three major climate oscillations on global crop production. Our results show that maize, rice, soybean, and wheat yields are influenced by climate oscillations to a wide extent and in several important crop-producing regions. We observe larger impacts if crops are rainfed or fully fertilized, while irrigation tends to mitigate the impacts. These results can potentially help to increase the resilience of the global food system to climate-related shocks.

ESD Ideas: Why are glaciations slower than deglaciations?

Here we explore ancient climate transitions from warm periods to ice ages and from ice ages to warm periods of the last 400 000 years. The changeovers from warm to ice age conditions are slower than those from ice age to warm conditions. We propose the presence of strong negative sea–ice feedbacks may be responsible for slowing the transition from warm to full ice age conditions. By improving understanding of past abrupt changes, we may have improved knowledge of future system behavior.

ESD Ideas: Why are glaciations slower than deglaciations?">Read more

Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change

Concerns are growing that human activity will lead to social and environmental breakdown, but it is hard to anticipate when and where such breakdowns might occur. We developed a new model of land management decisions in Europe to explore possible future changes and found that decision-making that takes into account social and environmental conditions can produce unexpected outcomes that include societal breakdown in challenging conditions.

Meeting climate targets by direct CO2 injections: what price would the ocean have to pay?

This modeling study is the first one to look at the suitability and collateral effects of direct CO₂injection into the deep ocean as a means to bridge the gap between CO₂emissions and climate impacts of an intermediate CO₂emission scenario and a temperature target on a millennium timescale, such as the 1.5 °C climate target of the Paris Agreement.

Evaluating climate emulation: fundamental impulse testing of simple climate models

Simple climate models (SCMs) underlie many important scientific and decision-making endeavors. This illustrates the need for their use to be rooted in a clear understanding of their fundamental responses. In this study, we provide a comprehensive assessment of model performance by evaluating the fundamental responses of several SCMs. We find biases in some responses, which have implications for decision science. We conclude by recommending a standard set of validation tests for any SCM.

Modeling forest plantations for carbon uptake with the LPJmL dynamic global vegetation model

We developed a computer model that simulates forests plantations at global scale and how fast such forests can take up CO₂from the atmosphere. Using this new model, we performed simulations for a scenario in which a large fraction (14 %) of global croplands and pastures are either converted to planted forests or natural forests. We find that planted forests take up CO₂substantially faster than natural forests and are therefore a viable strategy for reducing climate change.

Including the efficacy of land ice changes in deriving climate sensitivity from paleodata

Processes causing the same global-average radiative forcing might lead to different global temperature changes. We expand the theoretical framework by which we calculate paleoclimate sensitivity with an efficacy factor. Applying the revised approach to radiative forcing caused by CO₂and land ice albedo perturbations, inferred from data of the past 800 000 years, gives a new paleo-based estimate of climate sensitivity.

News & press Highlight articles

Highlight articles

Information for

External links