Why does a conceptual hydrological model fail to correctly predict discharge changes in response to climate change? Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-3493-2020 23 July 2020 We investigate why a conceptual hydrological model failed to correctly predict observed discharge changes in response to increasing precipitation and air temperature in 156 Austrian catchments. Simulations indicate that poor model performance is related to two problems, namely a model structure that neglects changes in vegetation dynamics and inhomogeneities in precipitation data caused by changes in stations density with time. Other hypotheses did not improve simulated discharge changes. Read more
Changing global cropping patterns to minimize national blue water scarcity Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-3015-2020 18 June 2020 Previous studies on water saving through food trade focussed either on comparing water productivities among countries or on analysing food trade in relation to national water endowments. Here, we consider, for the first time, both differences in water productivities and water endowments to analyse national comparative advantages. Our study reveals that blue water scarcity can be reduced to sustainable levels by changing cropping patterns while maintaining current levels of global production. Read more
Linking economic and social factors to peak flows in an agricultural watershed using socio-hydrologic modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-2873-2020 11 June 2020 We describe a socio-hydrologic model that couples an agent-based model (ABM) of human decision-making with a hydrologic model. We establish this model for a typical agricultural watershed in Iowa, USA, and simulate the evolution of large discharge events over a 47-year period under changing land use. Using this modeling approach, relationships between seemingly unrelated variables such as crop markets or crop yields and local peak flow trends are quantified. Read more
Comparing Palmer Drought Severity Index drought assessments using the traditional offline approach with direct climate model outputs Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-2921-2020 11 June 2020 Many previous studies using offline drought indices report that future warming will increase worldwide drought. However, this contradicts observations/projections of vegetation greening and increased runoff. We resolved this paradox by re-calculating the same drought indices using direct climate model outputs and find no increase in future drought as the climate warms. We also find that accounting for the impact of CO 2 on plant transpiration avoids the previous overestimation of drought. Read more
Wetropolis extreme rainfall and flood demonstrator: from mathematical design to outreach Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-2483-2020 28 May 2020 Wetropolis is a table-top demonstration model with extreme rainfall and flooding, including random rainfall, river flow, flood plains, an upland reservoir, a porous moor, and a city which can flood. It lets the viewer experience extreme rainfall and flood events in a physical model on reduced spatial and temporal scales with an event return period of 6.06 min rather than, say, 200 years. We disseminate its mathematical design and how it has been shown most prominently to over 500 flood victims. Read more
Surface water and groundwater: unifying conceptualization and quantification of the two “water worlds” Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-1831-2020 27 April 2020 We present a blueprint for a unified modelling framework to quantify chemical transport in both surface water and groundwater systems. There has been extensive debate over recent decades, particularly in the surface water literature, about how to explain and account for long travel times of chemical species that are distinct from water flow (rainfall-runoff) travel times. We suggest a powerful modelling framework known to be robust and effective from the field of groundwater hydrology. Read more
Changing suspended sediment in United States rivers and streams: linking sediment trends to changes in land use/cover, hydrology and climate Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-991-2020 17 March 2020 Between 1992 and 2012, concentrations of suspended sediment decreased at about 60 % of 137 US stream sites, with increases at only 17 % of sites. Sediment trends were primarily attributed to changes in land management, but streamflow changes also contributed to these trends at > 50 % of sites. At many sites, decreases in sediment occurred despite small-to-moderate increases in the amount of anthropogenic land use, suggesting sediment reduction activities across the US may be seeing some success. Read more
Temperature controls production but hydrology regulates export of dissolved organic carbon at the catchment scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-945-2020 12 March 2020 Lateral carbon fluxes from terrestrial to aquatic systems remain central uncertainties in determining ecosystem carbon balance. This work explores how temperature and hydrology control production and export of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) at the catchment scale. Results illustrate the asynchrony of DOC production, controlled by temperature, and export, governed by flow paths; concentration–discharge relationships are determined by the relative contribution of shallow versus groundwater flow. Read more
The millennium-old hydrogeology textbook The Extraction of Hidden Waters by the Persian mathematician and engineer Abubakr Mohammad Karaji (953 CE–1029 CE) Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-761-2020 27 February 2020 We revisit and shed light on the textbook The Extraction of Hidden Waters by the Persian mathematician and engineer Abubakr Mohammad Karaji. Ground-breaking ideas and descriptions of hydrological and hydrogeological perceptions such as components of the hydrological cycle, groundwater quality and driving factors for groundwater flow were presented in the book. We speculate that Karaji’s book is the first of its kind to provide a construction and maintenance manual for an engineering project. Read more
Surface water as a cause of land degradation from dryland salinity Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-717-2020 25 February 2020 Secondary dryland salinity is a global land degradation issue. Our understanding of causal processes is adapted from wet and hydrologically connected landscapes and concludes that low end-of-catchment runoff indicates land clearing alters water balance in favour of increased infiltration and rising groundwater that bring salts to the surface causing salinity. This study shows surface flows play an important role in causing valley floor recharge and dryland salinity in low-gradient landscapes. Read more
Global catchment modelling using World-Wide HYPE (WWH), open data, andstepwise parameter estimation Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-535-2020 11 February 2020 How far can we reach in predicting river flow globally, using integrated catchment modelling and open global data? For the first time, a catchment model was applied world-wide, covering the entire globe with a relatively high resolution. The results show that stepwise calibration provided better performance than traditional modelling of the globe. The study highlights that open data and models are crucial to advance hydrological sciences by sharing knowledge and enabling transparent evaluation. Read more
Seasonal partitioning of precipitation between streamflow and evapotranspiration, inferred from end-member splitting analysis Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-17-2020 17 January 2020 Perhaps the oldest question in hydrology is “Where does water go when it rains?”. Here we present a new way to measure how the terrestrial water cycle partitions precipitation into its two ultimate fates: “green water” that is evaporated or transpired back to the atmosphere and “blue water” that is discharged to stream channels. Our analysis may help in gauging the vulnerability of both water resources and terrestrial ecosystems to changes in rainfall patterns. Read more
Distinct stores and the routing of water in the deep critical zone of a snow-dominated volcanic catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-4661-2019 3 December 2019 This paper examines the influence of the subsurface structure on water routing, water residence times, and the hydrologic response of distinct groundwater stores and further investigates their contribution to streamflow. We conclude that deep groundwater from the fractured aquifer system, rather than shallow groundwater, is the dominant source of streamflow, which highlights the need to better characterize the deep subsurface of mountain systems using interdisciplinary studies such as this one. Read more
Benchmarking the predictive capability of hydrological models for river flow and flood peak predictions across over 1000 catchments in Great Britain Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-4011-2019 30 September 2019 We evaluated four hydrological model structures and their parameters on over 1100 catchments across Great Britain, considering modelling uncertainties. Models performed well for most catchments but failed in parts of Scotland and south-eastern England. Failures were often linked to inconsistencies in the water balance. This research shows what conceptual lumped models can achieve, gives insights into where and why these models may fail, and provides a benchmark of national modelling capability. Read more
Global-scale human pressure evolution imprints on sustainability of river systems Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-3933-2019 25 September 2019 A simple and effective index for the quantitative estimation of the evolution of human pressure on rivers at global scale is proposed. This index, based on nightlights and river discharge data, shows a significant increase from 1992 to 2013 worldwide. The most notable changes are found in river basins across Africa and Asia, where human pressure on rivers is growing markedly. This index identifies priority areas that can be targeted for the implementation of mitigation strategies and plans. Read more
Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 1: Projected climate and meteorology Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-3437-2019 23 August 2019 This article examines future atmospheric-related phenomena across the interior of western Canada associated with abusiness-as-usualclimate scenario. Changes in large-scale atmospheric circulation and extent of warming vary with season, and these generally lead to increases, especially after mid-century, in factors associated with winter snowstorms, freezing rain, drought, forest fires, as well as atmospheric forcing of spring floods, although not necessarily summer convection. Read more
A salinity module for SWAT to simulate salt ion fate and transport at the watershed scale Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-3155-2019 31 July 2019 Salinity is one of the most common water quality threats in river basins and irrigated regions worldwide. Available watershed models, however, do not simulate the fate and transport of salt species. This paper presents a modified version of the popular SWAT watershed model that simulates the transport of major salt ions in a watershed system. Salt is transported via surface runoff, soil percolation, groundwater flow, and streamflow. The model can be used in salt-affected watersheds worldwide. Read more
Assessing the characteristics and drivers of compound flooding events around the UK coast Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-3117-2019 23 July 2019 Flooding can arise from multiple sources, including waves, extreme sea levels, rivers, and severe rainfall. When two or more sources combine, the consequences can be greatly multiplied. We find the potential for the joint occurrence of extreme sea levels and river discharge to be greater on the western coast of the UK compared to the eastern coast. This is due to the weather conditions generating each flood source around the UK. These results will help increase our flood forecasting ability. Read more
Technical note: A microcontroller-based automatic rain sampler for stable isotope studies Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-2637-2019 19 June 2019 Most commercial automatic rain samplers are costly and do not prevent evaporation from the collection bottles. Hence, we have developed a microcontroller-based collector enabling timer-actuated integral rain sampling. The simple, low-cost device is robust and effectively minimizes post-sampling evaporation. The excellent performance of the collector during an evaporation experiment in a lab oven suggests that even multi-week field deployments in warm climates are feasible. Read more
Using a coupled agent-based modeling approach to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-2261-2019 10 May 2019 This study applies a two-way coupled agent-based model (ABM) with a river-reservoir management model (RiverWare) to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions using the Bayesian inference mapping joined with the cost–loss model. The calibration results capture the dynamics of historical irrigated area and streamflow changes and suggest that the proposed framework improves the representation of human decision-making processes compared to conventional rule-based ABMs. Read more