Social sensing a volcanic eruption: application to Kīlauea, 2018 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-1681-2025 13 May 2025 Protecting lives and livelihoods during volcanic eruptions is the key challenge in volcanology. Analysing social media usage during volcanic crises can help us better understand the impacts of volcanic eruptions and how warning messages are received and actioned, to eventually better protect those people and their livelihoods. Our work shows how social media data could be used in real time during a volcanic crisis to learn more about volcanic eruptions. Read more
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025 12 February 2025 In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential. Read more
Modelling current and future forest fire susceptibility in north-eastern Germany Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025 30 January 2025 In this study we applied a random forest machine learning algorithm to model current and future forest fire susceptibility (FFS) in north-eastern Germany using anthropogenic, climatic, topographic, soil, and vegetation variables. Model accuracy ranged between 69 % and 71 %, showing moderately high model reliability for predicting FFS. The model results underline the importance of anthropogenic and vegetation parameters. This study will support regional forest fire prevention and management. Read more
A methodology to compile multi-hazard interrelationships in a data-scarce setting: an application to the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-353-2025 27 January 2025 We present a methodology to compile single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings, which we apply to the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Using blended sources, we collate evidence of 21 single natural hazard types and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships that could impact the Kathmandu Valley. We supplement these exemplars with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders, emphasising the need for inclusive disaster preparedness and response approaches. Read more
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025 24 January 2025 This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation. Read more
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025 22 January 2025 Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model’s efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans. Read more
Exploring drought hazard, vulnerability, and related impacts on agriculture in Brandenburg Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-4237-2024 5 December 2024 Droughts are a threat to agricultural crops, but different factors influence how much damage occurs. This is important to know to create meaningful risk maps and to evaluate adaptation options. We investigate the years 2013–2022 in Brandenburg, Germany, and find in particular the soil quality and meteorological drought in June to be statistically related to the observed damage. Measurement of crop health from satellites is also related to soil quality and not necessarily to anomalous yields. Read more
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024 26 November 2024 Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning. Read more
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland, ERM-CH23 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024 17 October 2024 The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population. ERM-CH23">Read more
Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024 23 September 2024 Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management. Read more
