Going beyond the flood insurance rate map: insights from flood hazard map co-production Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-18-1097-2018 6 April 2018 In this study, engineers and social scientists explore opportunities for improving the utility of flood hazard maps through focus groups with end users. Focus groups revealed that end users preferred legends that describe flood intensity both quantitatively and with qualitative reference points, as well as flood scenario descriptions that describe the magnitude (rather than frequency) of the flood. Illustrations of pluvial flooding, or flooding caused directly by rainfall, were highly desired. Read more
Developing fragility functions for aquaculture rafts and eelgrass in the case of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-18-145-2018 10 January 2018 We developed fragility functions of aquaculture rafts and eelgrass based on damage data and numerical simulation of the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami. These fragility functions explain damage characteristics of both items against tsunami flow velocity. By understanding these characteristics, damage estimation and loss assessment as well as marine/fishery disaster mitigation plan and management in other areas of the world from future tsunamis can be implemented. Read more
Invited perspectives: Hydrological perspectives on precipitation intensity-duration thresholds for landslide initiation: proposing hydro-meteorological thresholds Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-18-31-2018 4 January 2018 The vast majority of shallow landslides and debris flows are precipitation initiated and predicted using historical landslides plotted versus observed precipitation information. However, this approach has severe limitations. This is partly due to the fact that it is not precipitation that initiates a landslide or debris flow but rather the hydrological dynamics in the soil and slope. We propose to include hydrological information in the regional hydro-meteorological hazard assessment. Read more
Impact of asymmetric uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on regional sea level projections Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-17-2125-2017 4 December 2017 This paper provides a full range of possible future sea levels on a regional scale, since it includes extreme, but possible, contributions to sea level change from dynamical mass loss from the Greenland and Antarctica ice sheets. In contrast to the symmetric distribution used in the IPCC report, it is found that an asymmetric distribution toward high sea level change values locally can increase the mean sea level by 1.8 m this century. Read more
When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 1: Model components for sources parameterization Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-17-1981-2017 22 November 2017 The volcanic region of Mt. Etna (Sicily, Italy) represents a perfect lab for testing innovative approaches to seismic hazard assessment. We present here the model components and the procedures adopted for defining seismic sources to be used in a new generation of probabilistic seismic hazard assessment, the first results and maps of which are presented in a companion paper, Peruzza et al. (2017). Read more
When probabilistic seismic hazard climbs volcanoes: the Mt. Etna case, Italy – Part 2: Computational implementation and first results Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-17-1999-2017 22 November 2017 It is well known that volcanoes and earthquakes are associated, and some active volcanoes cause damaging earthquakes. Nonetheless, volcanoes usually are not pinpointed on a hazard map, as the effects of shallow, volcanic earthquakes can be overshadowed by stronger tectonic earthquakes in the region, particularly when long exposure periods are considered. In this study we faced some challenges with software implementations and original concept scheme for an original PSHA at Mt. Etna, Italy. Read more
Revisiting the synoptic-scale predictability of severe European winter storms using ECMWF ensemble reforecasts Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-17-1795-2017 19 October 2017 The predictability of 25 historical winter storms over Europe is revisited by taking advantage of a homogeneous dataset of retrospective forecasts for the 1995–2015 period. The forecasts well predict the storms up to 2–4 days ahead only but also show clear potential for the early warning of storms up to 10 days ahead. However, the predictability of individual storms exhibits large variability and physical characteristics are identified for outliers with a poor predictability. ECMWF ensemble reforecasts">Read more
Statistical characteristics of convective wind gusts in Germany Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-17-957-2017 23 June 2017 Due to the small-scale and non-stationary nature of the convective wind gusts usually associated with thunderstorms, there is a considerable lack of knowledge regarding their characteristics and statistics. Thus, we investigated the temporal and spatial distribution, intensity, and return values of those wind events in Germany. The study constitutes a fundamental addition to an improved understanding of convective wind gusts and serves as basis for further risk assessments. Read more
Debris-flow modeling at Meretschibach and Bondasca catchments, Switzerland: sensitivity testing of field-data-based entrainment model Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-17-801-2017 1 June 2017 This study describes a sensitivity analysis of the RAMMS debris-flow entrainment model, which is intended to help solve problems related to predicting the runout of debris flows. The results indicate that the entrainment model predicts plausible erosion volumes in comparison with field data. These eroded volumes are sensitive to the initial landslide volume, suggesting that this tool may be useful for both reconstruction of historical events and modeling of debris flow scenarios. Read more
Brief communication: Sendai framework for disaster risk reduction – success or warning sign for Paris? Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-16-2189-2016 30 September 2016 In March 2015, a new international blueprint for disaster risk reduction (DRR) has been adopted in Sendai, Japan, at the end of the Third UN World Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction (WCDRR, March 14–18, 2015). We review and discuss the agreed commitments and targets, as well as the negotiation leading the Sendai Framework for DRR (SFDRR), and discuss briefly its implication for the later UN-led negotiations on sustainable development goals and climate change. Read more
