Drift simulation of MH370 debris using superensemble techniques Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-16-1623-2016 27 July 2016 In March 2014, a commercial airliner vanished without a trace. The main wreckage of the plane was never recovered, except for some small parts that washed up more than 17 months after the disappearance. In this paper we show a method to model the most likely trajectories of floating debris from the aircraft. The results show that the assumed area of the crash site is compatible with the recovered debris and predict that further debris may be found along the African east coast. Read more
Using video games for volcanic hazard education and communication: an assessment of the method and preliminary results Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-16-1673-2016 22 July 2016 Here, we aim to better understand the potential for using video games in volcanic hazard education with at-risk communities. A study using a bespoke-designed video game – St. Vincent’s Volcano – was trialled on the Caribbean island of St. Vincent in 2015. Preliminary data analysis demonstrates 94 % of study participants had an improved knowledge of volcanic hazards after playing the game, leading us to conclude that video games could be a logical progression for education and outreach activities. Read more
Causes and systematics of inundations of the Krasnodar territory on the Russian Black Sea coast Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-16-1289-2016 8 June 2016 Inundations on the Black Sea coast of the Krasnodar territory of the Russian Federation were analysed for 1945 to 2013. Risks, hazards and damage from inundations here are some of the highest in the country. The large quantity and the extremeness of rainfall, and the intense flood regimes of the rivers are the main contributors. Additionally, anthropogenic impact such as badly planned economic activities in channels, floodplains and on river watersheds strongly enhance the effects. Read more
Combined fluvial and pluvial urban flood hazard analysis: concept development and application to Can Tho city, Mekong Delta, Vietnam Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-16-941-2016 13 April 2016 Many urban areas experience both fluvial and pluvial floods, thus this study aims to analyse fluvial and pluvial flood hazards as well as combined pluvial and fluvial flood hazards. This combined fluvial-pluvial flood hazard analysis is performed in a tropical environment for Can Tho city in the Mekong Delta. The final results are probabilistic hazard maps, showing the maximum inundation caused by floods of different magnitudes along with an uncertainty estimation. Read more
Maximum wind radius estimated by the 50 kt radius: improvement of storm surge forecasting over the western North Pacific Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-16-705-2016 11 March 2016 We proposed an Rmax estimation method based on the radius of the 50 knot wind (R50). The data obtained during the passage of strong typhoons by a meteorological station network in the Japanese archipelago enabled us to derive the following simple formula, Rmax = 0.23 R50. The proposed method is expected to increase the reliability of storm surge prediction and contribute to disaster risk management, particularly in the western North Pacific. Read more
Comment on “Ultra low frequency (ULF) electromagnetic anomalies associated with large earthquakes in Java Island, Indonesia by using wavelet transform and detrended fluctuation analysis” by Febriani et al. (2014) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-15-2697-2015 18 December 2015 Reports of possible earthquake precursors have social responsibility. They motivate the idea that earthquakes may be predicted in the future. Thus, these papers should be convincing about the seismogenic origin of the reported precursors. We have reviewed Febriani et al. (2014). We have shown that the pre-earthquake magnetic changes they reported are not seismogenic but global-scale variations in the geomagnetic field in response to Sun–Earth interactions. ULF) electromagnetic anomalies associated with large earthquakes in Java Island, Indonesia by using wavelet transform and detrended fluctuation analysis” by Febriani et al. (2014)">Read more
Earthquakes and depleted gas reservoirs: which comes first? Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-15-2201-2015 7 October 2015 While the debate is on the possibility that the 2012 Emilia quakes could have been triggered by human activity, we studied the inverse relationship between hydrocarbon and seismicity. Overlapping a data set of gas and oil wells with a database of seismic sources, we found that only 1/19 wells falling on the largest faults is currently productive, while the highest ratio of productive wells is found outside the seismogenic sources. In general, productive gas wells are anti-correlated with faults. Read more
A contribution to the selection of tsunami human vulnerability indicators: conclusions from tsunami impacts in Sri Lanka and Thailand (2004), Samoa (2009), Chile (2010) and Japan (2011) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-15-1493-2015 3 July 2015 Human vulnerability indicators used by the scientific community are validated in light of past tsunamis (2011 Japan, 2010 Chile, 2009 Samoa, 2004 Indian Ocean). Temporal exposure depends on livelihoods, traditions and gender roles. Vulnerable age groups are the elderly (highest mortality rates) and children. Female mortality is not always higher. There is a high correlation between damaged buildings and victims; distance to the sea, building materials and water depths determine type of damage. Read more
Development of a Global Fire Weather Database Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-15-1407-2015 30 June 2015 The authors of this study have developed a global database of daily, gridded Fire Weather Index System calculations beginning in 1980. Input data and two different estimates of precipitation from rain gauges were obtained from the NASA Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications. This data set can be used for analyzing historical relationships between fire weather and fire activity, and in identifying large-scale atmosphere–ocean controls on fire weather. Read more
Dynamics of the Oso-Steelhead landslide from broadband seismic analysis Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-15-1265-2015 17 June 2015 We carry out a study of the seismic signals generated by the devastating Oso-Steelhead landslides. We invert the long-period seismic signals generated by the first main event and obtain estimates of its trajectory, kinematics and mass. No distinct long-period surface waves were recorded for the second failure, which prevents inversion for its source parameters. However, from the comparison of the energy of the short-period waves generated by both events, we can estimate the volume of the second. Read more
