Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024 20 September 2024 The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events. Read more
The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: overview and results Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024 20 September 2024 The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe. Read more
Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024 6 September 2024 Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events. Read more
Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024 23 August 2024 Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations. Read more
Brief communication: Storm Daniel flood impact in Greece in 2023: mapping crop and livestock exposure from synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-2375-2024 22 July 2024 About 820 km2 of agricultural land was inundated in central Greece due to Storm Daniel. A detailed analysis revealed that the crop most affected by the flooding was cotton; the inundated area of more than 282 km2 comprised ~ 30 % of the total area planted with cotton in central Greece. In terms of livestock, we estimate that more than 14 000 ornithoids and 21 500 sheep and goats were affected. Consequences for agriculture and animal husbandry in Greece are expected to be severe. SAR)">Read more
The risk of synoptic-scale Arctic cyclones to shipping Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-2115-2024 19 July 2024 The risk posed to ships by Arctic cyclones has seldom been quantified due to the lack of publicly available historical Arctic ship track data. This study investigates historical Arctic ship tracks, cyclone tracks, and shipping incident reports to determine the number of shipping incidents caused by the passage of Arctic cyclones. Results suggest that Arctic cyclones have not been hazardous to ships and that ships are resilient to the rough sea conditions caused by Arctic cyclones. Read more
A downward-counterfactual analysis of flash floods in Germany Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-2147-2024 8 July 2024 To identify flash flood potential in Germany, we shifted the most extreme rainfall events from the last 22 years systematically across Germany and simulated the consequent runoff reaction. Our results show that almost all areas in Germany have not seen the worst-case scenario of flood peaks within the last 22 years. With a slight spatial change of historical rainfall events, flood peaks of a factor of 2 or more would be achieved for most areas. The results can aid disaster risk management. Read more
Does a convection-permitting regional climate model bring new perspectives on the projection of Mediterranean floods? Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-1163-2024 20 May 2024 High-resolution convection-permitting climate models (CPMs) are now available to better simulate rainstorm events leading to flash floods. In this study, two hydrological models are compared to simulate floods in a Mediterranean basin, showing a better ability of the CPM to reproduce flood peaks compared to coarser-resolution climate models. Future projections are also different, with a projected increase for the most severe floods and a potential decrease for the most frequent events. Read more
Cost estimation for the monitoring instrumentation of landslide early warning systems Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-23-3913-2023 25 December 2023 A new approach for the deployment of landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) is proposed. We combine data-driven landslide susceptibility mapping and population maps to identify exposed locations. We estimate the cost of monitoring sensors and demonstrate that LEWSs could be installed with a budget ranging from EUR 5 to EUR 41 per person in Medellín, Colombia. We provide recommendations for stakeholders and outline the challenges and opportunities for successful LEWS implementation. Read more
Contribution of solitons to enhanced rogue wave occurrence in shallow depths: a case study in the southern North Sea Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-23-2053-2023 26 June 2023 Rogue waves exceed twice the significant wave height. They occur more often than expected in the shallow waters off Norderney. When applying a nonlinear Fourier transform for the Korteweg–de Vries equation to wave data from Norderney, we found differences in the soliton spectra of time series with and without rogue waves. A strongly outstanding soliton in the spectrum indicated an enhanced probability for rogue waves. We could attribute spectral solitons to the measured rogue waves. Read more
