Spatial and temporal subsidence characteristics in Wuhan (China), during 2015–2019, inferred from Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-2285-2021 8 September 2021 We mapped the subsidence of Wuhan using Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired during 2015–2019. Overall subsidence coincides with the distribution of engineered geological regions with soft soils, while the subsidence centers shifted with urban construction activities. Correlation between karst subsidence and concentrated rainfall was identified in Qingling–Jiangdi. Results indicate that interferometric SAR can be employed to routinely monitor and identify geohazards. SAR) interferometry">Read more
Invited perspectives: The ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 challenges in the area of natural hazards Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-2163-2021 23 August 2021 The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts mission is to deliver high-quality global medium‐range (3–15 d ahead of time) weather forecasts and monitoring of the Earth system. We have published a new strategy, and in this paper we discuss what this means for forecasting and monitoring natural hazards. ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 challenges in the area of natural hazards">Read more
Invited perspectives: Landslide populations – can they be predicted? Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-1467-2021 1 July 2021 This is a perspective based on personal experience on whether a large number of landslides caused by a single trigger (e.g. an earthquake, an intense rainfall, a rapid snowmelt event) or by multiple triggers in a period can be predicted, in space and time, considering the consequences of slope failures. Read more
Glacier detachments and rock-ice avalanches in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan (1973–2019) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-1409-2021 24 June 2021 A cluster of 13 large mass flow events including five detachments of entire valley glaciers was observed in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan, in 1973–2019. The local clustering provides additional understanding of the influence of temperature, seismic activity, and geology. Most events occurred in summer of years with mean annual air temperatures higher than the past 46-year trend. The glaciers rest on weak bedrock and are rather short, making them sensitive to friction loss due to meltwater. Read more
A statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones for hazard assessment Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-893-2021 30 March 2021 We present the formulation of an open-source, statistical–parametric model of tropical cyclones (TCs) for use in hazard and risk assessment applications. We demonstrate the capability of the model to replicate observed behaviour of TCs, including coastal landfall rates which are of significant importance for risk assessments. Read more
Radar-based assessment of hail frequency in Europe Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-683-2021 10 March 2021 In this study we present a unique 10 year climatology of severe convective storm tracks for a large European area covering Germany, France, Belgium and Luxembourg. For the period 2005–2014, a high-resolution hail potential composite of 1×1 km2 is produced from two-dimensional radar reflectivity and lightning data. Read more
A revision of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI)used in the European Drought Observatory (EDO) Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-481-2021 19 February 2021 Building on almost 10 years of expertise and operational application of the Combined Drought Indicator (CDI), which is implemented within the European Commission’s European Drought Observatory (EDO) for the purposes of early warning and monitoring of agricultural droughts in Europe, this paper proposes a revised version of the index. CDI)used in the European Drought Observatory (EDO)">Read more
A methodology for attributing the role of climate change in extreme events: a global spectrally nudged storyline Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-171-2021 8 February 2021 Extreme weather events are generally associated with unusual dynamical conditions, yet the signal-to-noise ratio of the dynamical aspects of climate change that are relevant to extremes appears to be small, and the nature of the change can be highly uncertain. Read more
Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of rare floods Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-3521-2020 15 January 2021 This work proposes methods for reducing the computational requirements of hydrological simulations for the estimation of very rare floods that occur on average less than once in 1000 years. These methods enable the analysis of long streamflow time series (here for example 10 000 years) at low computational costs and with modelling uncertainty. They are to be used within continuous simulation frameworks with long input time series and are readily transferable to similar simulation tasks. Read more
New global characterisation of landslide exposure Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-3413-2020 12 January 2021 Landslides cause thousands of fatalities and cost billions of dollars of damage worldwide every year, but different inventories of landslide events can have widely diverging completeness. This can lead to spatial biases in our understanding of the impacts. Here we use a globally homogeneous model of landslide hazard and exposure to provide consistent estimates of where landslides are most likely to cause damage to people, roads and other critical infrastructure at 1 km resolution. Read more
