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Estimating return periods for extreme events in climate models through Ensemble Boosting

Weather extremes have become more frequent due to climate change. It is therefore crucial to understand them, but since they are rarer than average weather, they are challenging to study. Ensemble Boosting (EB) is a tool that generates extreme climate model events efficiently, but without directly estimating their probability. Here, we present a method to recover these probabilities for a global climate model. EB can thus now be used to find extremes with meaningful statistical information.

Mercury contamination in staple crops impacted by artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM): stable Hg isotopes demonstrate dominance of atmospheric uptake pathway for Hg in crops

Air, soil, and three common staple crops were assessed at an artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) processing site, and mercury (Hg) contamination was observed at a farm ≈ 500 m from the processing site. Of the crop tissues examined, foliage had the highest concentrations. Mercury stable isotopes indicate uptake of mercury from the air to the foliage as the dominant uptake pathway. Using typical dietary data for Nigerians, Hg intake from these crops was below reference dose levels and generally safe for consumption.

AR6 updates to RF by GHGs and aerosols lowers the probability of accomplishing the Paris Agreement compared to AR5 formulations

We show that recent assessed updates to the future abundance and radiative forcing (RF) of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and tropospheric aerosols result in a 0.2 to 0.4 ⁰C rise in global mean surface temperature by the end of the century, relative to prior projections. For society to have confidence in achieving the 2 ⁰C warming limit of the Paris Agreement, the RF due to GHGs and aerosols must be placed close to the primary 2.6 W m⁻² Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenario (SSP1−2.6) over the coming decades.

TICOI: an operational Python package to generate regular glacier velocity time series

While global annual glacier velocities are openly accessible, sub-annual velocity time series are still lacking. This hinders our ability to understand flow processes and the integration of these observations in numerical models. We introduce an open source Python package called TICOI (Temporal Inversion using linear Combinations of Observations, and Interpolation) to fuse multi-temporal and multi-sensor image-pair velocities produced by different processing chains to produce standardized sub-annual velocity products.

A dilatant visco-elasto-viscoplasticity model with globally continuous tensile cap: stable two-field mixed formulation

We present a simple plasticity model that can be used for robust modeling of strain localization in both shear and tensile failure regimes. The new model overcomes the difficulty related to combining these regimes and enables for particularly simple and reliable numerical implementation, which delivers regularized solutions that are insensitive to mesh resolution. We describe algorithmic details and demonstrate the applications to a number of relevant strain localization problems.

A tracer study for the development of in-water monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) of ship-based ocean alkalinity enhancement

Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a carbon removal approach in which alkaline materials are added to the marine environment, increasing the ocean's ability to store carbon dioxide. We conducted an open-water experiment releasing and tracking a fluorescent water tracer. Under the right conditions, in-water monitoring of OAE does appear to be possible. We conclude with a series of practical recommendations for open-water OAE monitoring.

Mapping the safe operating space of marine ecosystems under contrasting emission pathways

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions significantly impact ocean ecosystems through climate change and acidification, leading to either progressive or abrupt changes. This study maps the crossing of physical and ecological limits for various ocean impact metrics under three emission scenarios. Using Earth system models, we identify when these limits are exceeded, highlighting the urgent need for ambitious climate action to safeguard the world's oceans and ecosystems.

Tipping points in ocean and atmosphere circulations

In this work, we draw on palaeo-records, observations, and modelling studies to review tipping points in the ocean overturning circulations, monsoon systems, and global atmospheric circulations. We find indications for tipping in the ocean overturning circulations and the West African monsoon, with potentially severe impacts on the Earth system and humans. Tipping in the other considered systems is regarded as conceivable but is currently not sufficiently supported by evidence.

Place-based science from Okinawa: 18th-century climate and geology recorded in Ryukyuan classical music

Indigenous Ryukyuan music records the 18th-century climate and geology of the Ryukyu Kingdom (21st-century Okinawa Prefecture, Japan). By collaborating with Ryukyuan cultural practitioners, we find that two seafaring songs detail the winds, ocean currents, and volcanoes that historical voyagers faced during envoys to Kyushu, Japan. Educators can use such observations in place-based learning to increase environmental science engagement in 21st-century Okinawa and the Okinawan diaspora worldwide.

Extensive fire-driven degradation in 2024 marks worst Amazon forest disturbance in over 2 decades

The Amazon forest faces increasing wildfires due to extreme drought and human activity. In 2024, disturbances surged by 152 %, hitting a 20-year high. Forest degradation from fires grew by over 400 %, exceeding that from deforestation. Brazil and Bolivia were hit hardest. These fires released huge amounts of CO₂, 7 times more than in recent years, pushing the Amazon towards a dangerous tipping point. Urgent action is needed to prevent irreversible harm.

Increased future ocean heat uptake constrained by Antarctic sea ice extent

Future projections of global ocean heat uptake (OHU) strongly differ between climate models. Here, we reveal an observational constraint on future OHU based on historical Antarctic sea ice extent observations. This emergent constraint is based on a coupling between sea ice, deep- and surface ocean temperatures, and cloud feedback. It implies an upward correction of 2024–2100 global OHU projections by up to 14 % and suggests that previous constraints have underestimated future warming.

The coupled oxygen and carbon dynamics in the subsurface waters of the Gulf and Lower St. Lawrence Estuary and implications for artificial oxygenation

We combine two decades of oxygen data with new carbon observations and a tracer-informed model to quantify oxygen loss and carbon buildup in the deep waters of the Gulf and Lower St. Lawrence Estuary. We then test a novel idea: reoxygenating these waters with the oxygen produced as a by-product from green-hydrogen production. Our results suggest this could significantly reduce hypoxia, though full recovery would require larger inputs.

Insights from hailstorm track analysis in European climate change simulations

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-3693-2025
1 October 2025

Hailstorms can cause severe damage to homes, crops, and infrastructure. Using high-resolution climate simulations, we tracked thousands of hailstorms across Europe to study future changes. Large hail will become more frequent, hail-covered areas will expand, and instances of extreme hail combined with heavy rain will double. These shifts could increase risks for communities and businesses, highlighting the need for better preparedness and adaptation.

Visualising historical changes in air pollution with the Air Quality Stripes

The Air Quality Stripes images visualise historical changes in particulate matter air pollution in over 150 cities worldwide. The project celebrates significant improvements in air quality in regions like Europe, North America, and China while highlighting the urgent need for action in areas such as central Asia. Designed to raise awareness, the images aim to inspire discussions about the critical impact of air pollution and the global inequalities it causes.

Food trade disruption after global catastrophes

The global food trade system can handle small disturbances, but large disasters could cause major disruptions. We looked at how nuclear war or severe infrastructure loss would affect global trade in key crops. Both would be catastrophic, but a nuclear war would cause more severe disruptions, with many countries losing most of their food imports. Both scenarios highlight the need for better preparation to protect global food security.

Physiological responses to ultra-high CO₂ levels in an evergreen tree species

Biogeosciences
DOI 10.5194/bg-22-5069-2025
28 September 2025

As atmospheric CO₂ increases globally, plants increase the rate of photosynthesis. Still, leaf–gas exchange can be downregulated by the plant. Here we tested the limits of these plant responses in a fruit tree species under very high CO₂ levels relevant to the future Earth and to contemporary Mars. Plant water use decreased at 1600 ppm CO₂ and remained low at 6000 ppm. Photosynthesis significantly increased at 6000 ppm. In summary, ultra-high CO₂ may partly compensate for limited water availability.

Technical note: Pondi – a low-cost logger for long-term monitoring of methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrous oxide in aquatic and terrestrial systems

Biogeosciences
DOI 10.5194/bg-22-5051-2025
27 September 2025

The Pondi is a cost-effective, lightweight logger designed for long-term monitoring of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions in both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. It addresses key challenges in greenhouse gas monitoring by providing an automated, low-cost, solar-powered solution with cloud connectivity and real-time analytics. Its robust design enables deployment in diverse environmental conditions, supporting large-scale, high-resolution emission assessments.

Learning predictable and informative dynamical drivers of extreme precipitation using variational autoencoders

Large-scale atmospheric dynamics modulate the occurrence of extreme events and can improve their prediction. We present a generative machine learning method to identify key dynamical drivers of an impact variable in the form of targeted circulation regimes. Applied to extreme precipitation in Morocco, we show that these targeted regimes are more predictive of the impact while preserving their own predictability and physical consistency.

4D GPR imaging of a near-terminus glacier collapse feature

The Cryosphere
DOI 10.5194/tc-19-4045-2025
25 September 2025

We demonstrate the use of a drone-based ground-penetrating radar (GPR) system to gather high-resolution, high-density 4D data over a near-terminus glacier collapse feature. We monitor the growth of an air cavity and the evolution of the subglacial drainage system, providing insights into the dynamics of the collapse event. This work highlights potential future applications of drone-based GPR for monitoring glaciers, in particular in regions which are inaccessible by surface-based methods.

Impacts of eutrophication and deoxygenation on the sediment biogeochemistry in the Sea of Marmara

Biogeosciences
DOI 10.5194/bg-22-4953-2025
24 September 2025

This study aims to understand the impacts of deoxygenation and eutrophication on sedimentary biogeochemical processes in the Sea of Marmara. We showed that diffusive phosphorus and fixed nitrogen fluxes were markedly high under highly eutrophic and hypoxic areas of the Sea of Marmara. This benthic feedback may exacerbate the ongoing eutrophication and deoxygenation in the Sea of Marmara, which is now at risk of becoming one of the major marine dead zones.