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2151 items found

10 20 50

Historical climate extremes in Europe and the connection between spring precipitation and summer heat

We analyse the link between dry springs and hot summers in Europe over the past 600 years. Starting with a study of the heat summer of 1473, which followed dry spring conditions in Southeastern Europe, we use the ModE-RA data set family to statistically analyse the link. We find that the link is strongest in regions where evaporation is moisture-limited. Hot summers are preceded by increased blocking over north-central Europe and a positive East Atlantic pattern in spring.

Invited perspective: Uncertainties in natural systems may be uncomfortable, but ignoring them would be absurd

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-4861-2026
8 October 2026

Natural systems are complex and uncertain, making probabilistic forecasts essential. Representing and communicating all uncertainties is challenging but vital for risk management. A multidisciplinary review identified common challenges across hazards and proposes a shared framework based on a clear hierarchy of uncertainties, complete forecasts, rigorous model evaluation, and effective communication to support decision-making.

From manual classification to transformer-based language models: assessing the quality and consistency of historical convective event records

Before measuring instruments, thunderstorms and hail were recorded only in written reports. We analysed around 7000 reports from 1000 to 1817 and, using a rule-based workflow, linguistically decoded the intensity of the thunderstorm and hail events described. The annual cycle derived from this corresponds well with modern observations. With these data, language models can be trained to reliably classify such events and make large collections of text accessible for climate research.

Pokémon Trading Cards reveal visual stereotypes of natural minerals

Pokémon cards offer an unexpected 30-year record of how popular culture depicts minerals. Analyzing 223 illustrations revealed a "universal crystal template" reducing natural minerals to a shared visual stereotype: giant, translucent, symmetrical crystals inside caves. While these images oversimplify geological reality, their global familiarity and the diverse mineral examples already represented make this collection an excellent educational hook to inspire interest in authentic Earth science.

Decoded Antarctic snow accumulation history reconciles observed and modeled trends in accumulation and large-scale warming patterns

Snow accumulation on the Antarctic Ice Sheet could increase with greenhouse warming, storing water that would otherwise raise sea level. Employing multiple Earth system model simulations and reconstructions, we detect a warming-driven increase in accumulation consistent with greenhouse gas forcing, but observations can only be matched if wind and meltwater impacts on large-scale surface warming patterns are accounted for. This implies that predictions ignoring these effects are overconfident.

Origin of low ozone above western North America: an investigation of sources and trends

Background ozone over Western North America is increasing despite local emission reductions, driven by intensifying transport from Southeast Asia, expanded global shipping, and rising aircraft emissions in the upper troposphere-lower stratosphere (UTLS). By analyzing the ozone 'lower tail' (<33rd percentile), this study identifies growing remote influences and shifting trans-Pacific transport patterns that are fundamentally altering the region's background atmospheric state.

Assessing Earth system responses in mitigation scenarios with activity-driven simulation of carbon dioxide removal

Earth system models can simulate CO₂ removal by representing the activity that draws down atmospheric CO₂, e.g. growing bioenergy crops for energy production with carbon capture and storage or enhancing the oceans’ alkalinity. We describe a simulation framework, spanning the modeling chain from integrated assessment to Earth system models, that allows separating the intrinsic efficiency of CO₂ removal and the overall atmospheric CO₂ reduction, the latter being affected by Earth system feedbacks.

Ocean dynamics amplify remote warming effects of reforestation

Reforestation is a key strategy for tackling climate change, but forests influence climate beyond carbon storage, and some effects can cause warming in distant regions, offsetting their cooling benefits. Using a global climate model, we studied how oceans mediate these distant effects over centuries. We found that ocean processes amplify the warming in distant regions, particularly at high latitudes, highlighting the importance of considering the full long-term climate response of reforestation.

Invited Perspectives: Science for Comprehensive Disaster and Climate Risk Management

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-4589-2026
24 September 2026

We explore five core challenges that need to be addressed in order to move towards the Comprehensive Disaster and Climate Risk Management approach. This approach has been proposed within the newly emerging paradigm of a more holistic approach to managing the risks associated with climatic and/or non-climatic hazards and non-climatic risk drivers. We elaborate on each challenge, discuss why they matter for comprehensive disaster risk management, and provide ideas of how to overcome them.

The North American CORDEX-CMIP6 WRF evaluation run: comparing historical simulations from 25 km to convection-permitting scales

This study presents a new 12 km CORDEX (Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment )-CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) simulation for North America, compared against an earlier 25 km CMIP5 version and a 4 km convection-permitting simulation. The updated run reduces temperature and precipitation biases, improves precipitation timing, and better captures tropical cyclone intensity. Extreme precipitation at 12 km closely matches convection-permitting results, offering a practical resolution for regional climate assessment.

The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) contribution to CMIP7

Clouds constitute a key uncertainty for climate change projections. The Cloud Feedback Model Intercomparison Project (CFMIP) aims to address this challenge by evaluating and understanding clouds and their impacts on atmospheric circulation, precipitation, and climate sensitivity. The present paper describes the CFMIP experiment protocol for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), and discusses the accompanying science questions and opportunities for progress.

Ballistic projectile hazard of major explosions and paroxysms at Stromboli (Italy) with uncertainty quantification – Part 2: Conditional and temporal probability maps

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-4503-2026
17 September 2026

Using historical records and mathematical models, researchers created maps that show the probability of different areas being affected by ballistic fallout from volcanic eruptions in Stromboli, Italy. Hazard maps were developed for both major explosions and paroxysms as well as for the two categories combined together by assuming a relative proportion. By using a temporal model of the explosive events, first probability maps of ballistic fallout in the next 10 and 50 years are finally presented.

The state of diversity, equity, and inclusion in the cloud physics community

A survey and literature metadata analysis from the cloud physics community are used to investigate the state of diversity, equity and inclusion in the cloud physics community. We show the evolution of gender contributions to cloud physics and the inclusion of tropics-based scientists. The publication analysis reveals the rate of men and women dropping out of the field is not different, however, gender balance was better achieved when women led publications compared to men.

Limited atmospheric iron availability increase during the Younger Dryas in the Northern Hemisphere

Ice-core measurements from Greenland suggest that atmospheric iron deposition played a smaller role than previously thought in regulating marine productivity in the iron-limited North Pacific. Despite a strong increase in total iron deposition, the fraction of iron more likely to be available to phytoplankton rose only modestly, pointing to sea-ice extent and sedimentary iron remobilization as potentially more important factors during the last glacial transition.

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) contribution to CMIP7 – description of new experimental protocols and preliminary results

The Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project is a coordinated international model intercomparison effort aiming to provide robust experimental protocols for simulations of various Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) methods. In this manuscript, we describe a list of novel experiments decided by the community, to be run by climate models to better understand sources of uncertainty in SRM. We also show and discuss some preliminary results from a few climate models.

Imaging deep carbon stocks with complex electrical conductivity

Biogeosciences
DOI 10.5194/bg-23-6287-2026
11 September 2026

Understanding the role of soil in the storage of organic carbon is critical for a large number of environmental processes. Current practices rely on the drilling and analysis of samples, which is expensive, time consuming and destructive. Here we present a technique able to map soil organic carbon variability using measurements of the electrical properties of the subsurface without drilling. Our results advance soil management strategies to enhance carbon sequestration and storage.

Evaluating surface mass balance variability from climate models using GPS Bedrock Vertical Time Series data

The Cryosphere
DOI 10.5194/tc-20-5099-2026
10 September 2026

Antarctic surface mass balance (SMB) is a source of major uncertainty in ice-sheet mass balance estimates, but its evaluation remains limited. We introduce a novel method using continuous, bedrock-fixed GPS vertical displacements as a spatially integrated constraint on low-frequency SMB variability over hundreds of kilometres. Applied across Antarctica, it reveals systematic, region-dependent differences with modelled SMB-driven displacements, guiding SMB model refinement.

Cloud liquid water path at the North Slope of Alaska has minimal sensitivity to local meteorology in Arctic winter

Liquid-containing Arctic clouds have a strong influence on surface temperature and sea ice extent in winter, but how weather conditions impact cloud cover remains a mystery. This study uses observations from northern Alaska to investigate this relationship. We find that, contrary to expectations, the amount of cloud liquid is remarkably insensitive to temperature, moisture, wind direction, and the large-scale atmospheric flow.

Global hyper-resolution modeling of historical and future groundwater dynamics

We simulated how global groundwater levels have changed in the past and how they might change in the future. By improving model accuracy and using hyper-resolution data, we can now see where water tables are falling or rising across the world at 1km resolution. These results help communities and decision-makers plan for more sustainable water use in a changing climate.

Invited perspectives: Towards usable compound event research

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-4309-2026
7 September 2026

Impacts from extreme weather events may become more severe due to increased likelihood of compounding events under global warming, which challenge present day climate modelling and forecasting capacities. In this perspective we reflect on the usability of compound event research to bridge the gap between academic research and real-world applications.

Natural disturbances from bark beetle outbreaks and windthrow increasingly affect Europe's most mature and carbon-rich forests

Europe’s forests store vast amounts of carbon, but climate-driven disturbances are becoming more frequent. By combining satellite records with information on forest age and structure, we show that recent disturbances increasingly affect the oldest and most carbon-rich forests, particularly spruce forests in Central Europe. This emerging pattern puts long-accumulated carbon at risk and may reduce the long-term climate benefits provided by Europe’s forests.

The impact of stochastic sea ice perturbations on seasonal forecasts

Numerical weather forecasts of sea ice are unreliable, exhibiting an overly narrow range of plausible sea ice evolutions. Stochastic perturbations introduce randomness to the forecast in order to alleviate this by representing uncertainties in the representation of sea ice physics. We show that including such perturbations in a forecast model improves the reliability of sea ice forecasts, and furthermore results in improved seasonal forecasts of the northern European winter circulation.

Saturation effect of background temperature and aridity on vegetation phenological sensitivity to urban warming

Using satellite data from 293 Chinese cities, we tested how background climate shapes vegetation responses to urban warming. Urban heat advances spring growth 12 days and delays autumn aging nearly 10 days, yet responses saturate with extra warming. Dryness weakens and reverses growing‑season extension in dry inland zones. Temperature and moisture explain about 75 % spatial variation. Our results challenge the view that urban heat always lengthens growing seasons for climate‑adapted greening.

Dune aurora: survey from a citizen science database

Dune aurora is an intriguing phenomenon recently discovered thanks to citizen science. It is a dim, diffuse auroral form exhibiting wave-like stripes of brighter emission. We carry out the first statistical study of dune aurora, using 308 observation reports submitted to the Skywarden database by citizen scientists from Europe, North America, and Oceania. We find that dunes are an evening phenomenon, most often reported in March and October and associated with currents in the auroral atmosphere.

Water masses in the Atlantic Ocean: water mass ages and ventilation

We measured the age of Atlantic waters using man-made gases and a radioactive isotope. Age increases with depth: young surface waters are about 30 years old, deep Antarctic water reaches 100 years, and the oldest bottom water is roughly 120 years. The western Atlantic is younger and better ventilated than the east. These patterns help estimate deep-sea oxygen use and are key for climate models and marine ecosystems.

From regular to random: a unifying framework for step-pool spacing

The expected spacing of step-pool sequences has long been mired in debate, hampering stream restoration efforts. We define a continuum to evaluate the degree of regularity and randomness across step-pools from field observations, flume experiments, and numerical simulations and show that the full range is occupied without one formation mechanism dominating. Bounds related to channel hydraulics provide a way to track dynamic step spacing without assuming a mechanism.

Quantifying the influence of wood carbon fractions on tree- and forest ecosystem-scale carbon estimation in a temperate forest

Forests are critical in the global carbon cycle. Accurate estimates of tree and forest carbon stocks depend on assumptions surrounding wood chemistry, though this is often overlooked in forest carbons science. We show that species-specific wood chemistry values upward-revise tree-and forest carbon stock estimates, though certain wood chemistry assumptions – namely, the commonly-employed 50 % wood carbon fraction assumption – over-estimate carbon stocks in virtually all temperate trees and forests.

Editorial: Introducing a new article type: Limitations, Errors, Surprises, Shortcomings and Opportunities for New Science (LESSONS)

We explain a new article type that is being introduced in participating EGU publications. "LESSONS" articles describe the Limitations, Errors, Surprises, Shortcomings and Opportunities for New Science emerging from the scientific process. The publication of non-positive results and associated learnings aims to complete an unbiased record of the research effort, contributes to open and transparent science, allows the authors and others to learn, and may open opportunities for new science.

Spatial heterogeneity in post-fire permafrost evolution as revealed by satellite radar observations

This study examines the impacts of wildfires on permafrost thaw in the Arctic spanning up to ~90 years post-fire and explores the potential of using radar satellite observations to enhance our understanding of environmental change. By assessing diverse high-latitude permafrost landscapes, we show that ground deformation anomalies after fires display similar patterns across regions, while radar backscatter varies depending on predominant ground temperatures.

Code accessibility and code quality across phases of the models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

We studied how accessible and reliable the computer code behind major climate models has been over time. By reviewing different phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we found improvements in transparency and coding practices, but also gaps that limit reproducibility. Our work suggests practical steps to make future climate research more open, traceable, and trustworthy for scientists and society.

Forecast-based attribution of the role of stratospheric variability in weather extremes

Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is thought to play a role in driving weather extremes, but quantifying this role for a given event has proved challenging. Using a new set of perturbed subseasonal forecast experiments from 7 modelling centres, we determine the stratospheric contribution to the risk and severity of three recent extreme weather events. The forecast-based methodology that we develop is applicable to understanding a range of other drivers of weather extremes.

Towards family-friendly conferences: results from a first survey in the geosciences

Balancing academic careers and family responsibilities presents significant challenges, particularly for early-career researchers attending conferences. These events are essential for professional development but often create logistical difficulties for parents. Based on a survey of geoscientists, we show that parents require more support and non-parents largely approve of family-friendly measures. We provide practical guidelines to help conference organizers support researchers with families.

Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO₂ emissions

We investigated a response of permafrost using an Earth system model driven by an idealized overshooting carbon emission scenario, and found that the permafrost response to warming and cooling is reversible in the area but irreversible in its property. The permafrost response shows hysteresis, arising from a slow soil response tied to heat conductivity and specific heat of water phase change. A carbon release from thawed permafrost accounts for 0.6–41% of the cumulative carbon emission.

Chlorophyll a variation trends in marginal seas: assessing the impact of global warming and anthropogenic activities using time-series satellite data (1998–2020)

Analyzing 1998–2020 satellite data, this study finds global warming reduces offshore Chl a in open marginal seas, a trend extending nearshore. In contrast, Chl a in highly polluted enclosed seas remains unaffected by warming, dominated instead by nutrient inputs. Successful environmental policies reducing pollution may inadvertently accelerate the climate-driven Chl a decline, revealing a complex ecological trade-off.

AngleCam V2: Predicting leaf inclination angles across taxa from daytime and nighttime photos

To adapt to changing environmental conditions, plants can adjust their leaf angles. We developed AngleCam V2, an AI method that estimates leaf inclination angles from photos taken during day and night. Trained on thousands of images from about 200 species, it monitors daily changes in leaf angle, aligns with laser-scanning data, and detects systematic shifts under water limitation. AngleCam V2 provides an open-source tool for monitoring leaf angle dynamics over time, taxa, and environments.

Catalogue of strong nonlinear surprises in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in CMIP6

We present a first catalogue of abrupt changes/state transitions in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate scenarios. We find many models that show Arctic sea-ice disappearance, North Atlantic winter mixed-layer collapse and/or subsequent transition of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to a weak state. We find more abrupt changes/state transitions than in previous work at lower global warming levels.

Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track

The Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) is a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of Earth system models. Built upon four disparate community evaluation tools, the REF is designed to provide model-data comparisons for the Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The REF will be run at the Earth System Grid Federation to enable model devleopers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues.

Climate change may increase landslide frequency despite generally drier conditions in the Mediterranean area

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3723-2026
10 August 2026

We present a framework linking projected rainfall with hydro-mechanical processes to assess landslide occurrences in a Mediterranean area, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Despite generally drier soils, landslide frequency rises because shifts in the timing and intensity of rainfall, altering antecedent soil moisture during triggering events. This counterintuitive result highlights the importance of rainfall patterns in slope stability and informs climate-risk assessment and adaptation planning.

An update to the expression of atmospheric refractivity for GNSS signals

Refinement of previous work on atmospheric refractivity, providing an expression as a function of air density, temperature, and composition. Studies with radio occultations in weather prediction show that the formulation of refractivity is critical with large data volumes. Compared to earlier work, this study incorporates updated fundamental measurements, accounts for variability in atmospheric composition, and extends the model to include hydrometeors.

New insights into decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic revealed by data-driven dynamical models

We use artificial intelligence to learn simple equations from historical climate data that describe how North Atlantic ocean temperature, air pressure and rainfall vary and influence each other over decades. Analysing the model's behaviour and equation terms, we find rainfall strongly feeds back on both the ocean and the atmosphere. These interactions are well captured by the models and allow rainfall to be predicted over the ocean, and nearby regions such as Europe over coming decades.

Reviews and syntheses: Eddy covariance-based evapotranspiration partitioning

It is important to understand how much water is lost from plant processes to better understand ecosystem dynamics and the global water cycle. This review summarizes methods developed to partition plant water loss from total ecosystem water loss measurements. Eleven independent methods were identified, each reliant on various ecosystem assumptions. The methods were applied across 129 independent studies, reporting that globally, plant water loss accounts for 57 % of total ecosystem water loss.

disdrodb: an open-source Python package for standardized processing, sharing, and analysis of disdrometer data

disdrodb is a Python package for standardized sharing, processing, and analysis of disdrometer observations. It makes precipitation particle size distribution datasets easier to discover, access, and download, and converts heterogeneous raw measurements into global harmonized products for remote sensing precipitation retrievals and particle size distribution studies.

A global high-resolution hydrological model to simulate the dynamics of surface liquid reservoirs: application on Mars

In this paper, we present a global high-resolution hydrological model to investigate how water may have once flowed and accumulated on Mars. Using detailed topography, the model tracks how lakes and seas form, grow, merge, overflow, and dry out over time. It reveals how a vast northern ocean could emerge from smaller bodies of water. This approach links surface landforms to past climates, offering new perspectives on Mars' watery history and its potential habitability.

Valley longitudinal profiles record the fluvial landscape evolution and geological structure of the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, East Antarctica

This study focusses on the Gamburtsev Subglacial Mountains, a 600 km-long mountain range that is completely hidden beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We look at the valley networks within the Gamburtsevs and use these to understand how the mountains formed. Our main findings are that the valleys were first cut by rivers that existed before Antarctica was glaciated, the shape of the valleys is affected by the bedrock geology, and the mountains are probably younger than previously thought.

Assessment of seismicity and risk from gas injection in the Groningen gas field

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3443-2026
28 July 2026

Gas production from the Groningen gas field caused felt earthquakes, resulting in field closure in 2023. Despite this, earthquakes are expected to continue for years to come. This study models whether gas injection may be used to reduce earthquakes. The results suggest that, under continued zero-production scenarios, gas injection would decrease the number of earthquakes and the associated seismic risk compared to a no-injection scenario, offering a potential avenue for active mitigation.

CO₂ and H₂O isotope exchange and flux partitioning in Amazonia

We used high-frequency H₂O and CO₂ isotope measurements taken in the Amazon Tall Tower Observatory (ATTO) to separate water vapour and carbon dioxide fluxes into their component processes. During midday, ~95 % of evapotranspiration came from plant transpiration. Isotopes also revealed the balance between photosynthesis and respiration, showing strong sensitivity to leaf CO₂ ratios. These results improve understanding of Amazon ecosystem function.

The added value of new ground-based observations in improving China's methane emission quantification

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas, yet existing satellite and ground observations in China are too sparse to accurately quantify emissions, highlighting the need for an expanded ground network. Using Bayesian inversion and simulated annealing, we identify optimal locations for new sites. Results show that prioritizing stations in eastern and southwestern China would be most effective. Expanding the network with 50 stations could nearly double the current emission constraint capability.

Europe's transport infrastructure is not ready to face climate change

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3345-2026
22 July 2026

Climate extremes like floods, heatwaves, droughts, and wildfires are disrupting Europe’s transport. This study combines a review of past events and future projections to assess current losses and the future exposure of transport infrastructure. Exposure to extremes is projected to rise, but lower emissions can reduce it. Urgent action is needed to reduce emissions and adapt the Trans-European Transport Network to a changing climate.

From continental to street scales: climate change impacts on atmospheric composition over Europe and London

We use innovative coupled modelling to quantify how natural emissions, chemistry, deposition and transport influence climate change responses of air pollutants from continental to urban scales across Europe. We highlight uncertainties in climate-sensitive biogenic emissions as key to future projections of ozone and fine particulate matter. High resolution modelling is essential for evaluating the benefits and trade-offs of climate change for achieving WHO air quality targets and guidelines.

Brief communication: Temperature-driven shrinkage of a disappearing Himalayan glacier

Glacier AX010 in Nepal, monitored since the 1970s, has been shrinking at an accelerating rate, mainly due to rising temperatures. Drone surveys, modeling, and reanalysis data show mass loss began in the early 1970s and intensified after 2000. While rising temperatures drive shrinkage, precipitation changes have neither accelerated nor mitigated mass loss. At the current rate, the glacier may disappear within 10–20 years.