Comparing the transport-limited and ξ–q models for sediment transport Earth Surface Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esurf-10-301-2022 27 June 2022 By comparing two models for the transport of sediment, we find that they share a similar steady-state solution that adequately predicts the shape of most depositional systems made of a fan and an alluvial plain. The length of the fan is controlled by the size of the mountain drainage area feeding the sedimentary system and its slope by the incoming sedimentary flux. We show that the models differ in their transient behaviour to external forcing and are characterized by different response times. Read more
Uncertainty estimation with deep learning for rainfall–runoff modeling Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-26-1673-2022 24 June 2022 This contribution evaluates distributional run-off predictions from deep-learning-based approaches. We propose a benchmarking setup and establish four strong baselines. The results show that accurate, precise, and reliable uncertainty estimation can be achieved with deep learning. Read more
Full latitudinal marine atmospheric measurements of iodine monoxide Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-22-4005-2022 22 June 2022 We have undertaken atmospheric iodine monoxide (IO) observations in the global marine boundary layer with a wide latitudinal coverage and sea surface temperature (SST) range. We conclude that atmospheric iodine is abundant over the Western Pacific warm pool, appearing as an iodine fountain, where ozone (O3) minima occur. Our study also found negative correlations between IO and O3 concentrations over IO maxima, which requires reconsideration of the initiation process of halogen activation. Read more
Arctic glaciers and ice caps through the Holocene:a circumpolar synthesis of lake-based reconstructions Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-18-579-2022 20 June 2022 This paper synthesizes 66 records of glacier variations over the Holocene from lake archives across seven Arctic regions. We find that summers only moderately warmer than today drove major environmental change across the Arctic in the early Holocene, including the widespread loss of glaciers. In comparison, future projections of Arctic temperature change far exceed estimated early Holocene values in most locations, portending the eventual loss of most of the Arctic’s small glaciers. Read more
Strong increase in thawing of subsea permafrost in the 22nd century caused by anthropogenic climate change The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-16-1057-2022 17 June 2022 Thawing permafrost releases carbon to the atmosphere, enhancing global warming. Part of the permafrost soils have been flooded by rising sea levels since the last ice age, becoming subsea permafrost (SSPF). The SSPF is less studied than the part on land. In this study we use a global model to obtain rates of thawing of SSPF under different future climate scenarios until the year 3000. After the year 2100 the scenarios strongly diverge, closely connected to the eventual disappearance of sea ice. Read more
Towards hybrid modeling of the global hydrological cycle Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-26-1579-2022 15 June 2022 We present a physics-aware machine learning model of the global hydrological cycle. As the model uses neural networks under the hood, the simulations of the water cycle are learned from data, and yet they are informed and constrained by physical knowledge. The simulated patterns lie within the range of existing hydrological models and are plausible. The hybrid modeling approach has the potential to tackle key environmental questions from a novel perspective. Read more
Evaporation enhancement drives the European water-budget deficit during multi-year droughts Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-26-1527-2022 13 June 2022 Droughts are a creeping disaster, meaning that their onset, duration and recovery are challenging to monitor and forecast. Here, we provide further evidence of an additional challenge of droughts, i.e. the fact that the deficit in water supply during droughts is generally much more than expected based on the observed decline in precipitation. At a European scale we explain this with enhanced evapotranspiration, sustained by higher atmospheric demand for moisture during such dry periods. Read more
Performance of temperature and productivity proxies based on long-chain alkane-1, mid-chain diols at test: a 5-year sediment trap record from the Mauritanian upwelling Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-19-1587-2022 10 June 2022 A 5-year record of long-chain mid-chain diol export flux and composition is presented with a 1- to 3-week resolution sediment trap CBeu (in the NW African upwelling). All environmental parameters as well as the diol composition are dominated by the seasonal cycle, albeit with different phase relations for temperature and upwelling. Most diol-based proxies are dominated by upwelling. The long-chain diol index reflects temperatures of the oligotrophic summer sea surface. Read more
101 geodynamic modelling: how to design, interpret, and communicate numerical studies of the solid Earth Solid Earth DOI 10.5194/se-13-583-2022 8 June 2022 Geodynamic modelling of the solid Earth provides a powerful tool to investigate processes in the Earth’s crust and mantle that are not directly observable. In this review, we present a comprehensive yet concise overview of the modelling process with an emphasis on best practices, clear communication, and synergies with related fields. Hence, this review is the perfect starting point for anyone wishing to (re)gain a solid understanding of geodynamic modelling as a whole. Read more
Magnitude, frequency and climate forcing of global volcanism during the last glacial period as seen in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-18-485-2022 6 June 2022 We employ acidity records from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores to estimate the emission strength, frequency and climatic forcing for large volcanic eruptions from the last half of the last glacial period. A total of 25 volcanic eruptions are found to be larger than any eruption in the last 2500 years, and we identify more eruptions than obtained from geological evidence. Towards the end of the glacial period, there is a notable increase in volcanic activity observed for Greenland. Read more
A predictive viscosity model for aqueous electrolytes and mixed organic–inorganic aerosol phases Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-22-3203-2022 3 June 2022 Depending on temperature and chemical makeup, certain aerosols can be highly viscous or glassy, with atmospheric implications. We have therefore implemented two major upgrades to the predictive viscosity model AIOMFAC-VISC. First, we created a new viscosity model for aqueous electrolyte solutions containing an arbitrary number of ion species. Second, we integrated the electrolyte model within the existing AIOMFAC-VISC framework to enable viscosity predictions for organic–inorganic mixtures. Read more
Persistence of moist plumes from overshooting convection in the Asian monsoon anticyclone Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-22-3169-2022 1 June 2022 The Asian monsoon anticyclone is the key contributor to the global annual maximum in lower stratospheric water vapour. We investigate the impact of deep convection on the lower stratospheric water using a unique set of observations aboard the high-altitude M55-Geophysica aircraft deployed in Nepal in summer 2017 within the EU StratoClim project. We find that convective plumes of wet air can persist within the Asian anticyclone for weeks, thereby enhancing the occurrence of high-level clouds. Read more
Ideas and perspectives: Sea-level change, anaerobic methane oxidation, and the glacial–interglacial phosphorus cycle Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-19-1421-2022 30 May 2022 A glacial–interglacial methane-fuelled redistribution of reactive phosphorus between the oceanic and sedimentary phosphorus reservoirs can occur in the ocean when falling sea level lowers the pressure on the seafloor, destabilizes methane hydrates, and triggers the dissolution of P-bearing iron oxides. The mass of phosphate potentially mobilizable from the sediment is similar to the size of the current oceanic reservoir. Hence, this process may play a major role in the marine phosphorus cycle. Read more
Bacterial and eukaryotic intact polar lipids point to in situ production as a key source of labile organic matter in hadal surface sediment of the Atacama Trench Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-19-1395-2022 27 May 2022 In this study, we investigate the chemical diversity and abundance of microbial lipids as markers of organic matter sources in the deepest points of the Atacama Trench sediments and compare them to similar lipid stocks in shallower surface sediments and in the overlying water column. We evaluate possible organic matter provenance and some potential chemical adaptations of the in situ microbial community to the extreme conditions of high hydrostatic pressure in hadal realm. Read more
The impact of stratospheric aerosol intervention on the North Atlantic and Quasi-Biennial Oscillations in the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) G6sulfur experiment Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-22-2999-2022 25 May 2022 Simulations by six Earth-system models of geoengineering by introducing sulfuric acid aerosols into the tropical stratosphere are compared. A robust impact on the northern wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation is found, exacerbating precipitation reduction over parts of southern Europe. In contrast, the models show no consistency with regard to impacts on the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, although results do indicate a risk that the oscillation could become locked into a permanent westerly phase. Read more
Using machine learning and beach cleanup data to explain litter quantities along the Dutch North Sea coast Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-18-269-2022 23 May 2022 A large amount of marine litter, such as plastics, is located on or around beaches. Both the total amount of this litter and its transport are poorly understood. We investigate this by training a machine learning model with data of clean-up efforts on Dutch beaches between 2014 and 2019, obtained by about 14 000 volunteers. We find that Dutch beaches contain up to 30 000 kg of litter, largely depending on tides, oceanic transport, and how exposed the beaches are. Read more
Magnetospheric response to solar wind forcing: ultra-low-frequency wave–particle interaction perspective Annales Geophysicae DOI 10.5194/angeo-40-121-2022 20 May 2022 Magnetospheric physics is in an extremely vibrant phase, with a number of ongoing and highly successful missions, e.g., Cluster, THEMIS, Van Allen Probes, and the MMS spacecraft, providing the most amazing observations and data sets. Since there are many fundamental and unsolved problems, in this paper I have addressed selected topics of ULF wave-charged particle interactions which encompass many special fields of radiation belt, ring current and plasmaspheric physics. Read more
Multilayer modelling of waves generated by explosive subaqueous volcanism Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-22-617-2022 18 May 2022 Volcanic eruptions can produce tsunamis through multiple mechanisms. We present validation cases for a numerical method used in simulating waves caused by submarine explosions: a laboratory flume experiment and waves generated by explosions at field scale. We then demonstrate the use of the scheme for simulating analogous volcanic eruptions, illustrating the resulting wavefield. We show that this scheme models such dispersive sources more proficiently than standard tsunami models. Read more
Future water temperature of rivers in Switzerland under climate change investigated with physics-based models Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-26-1063-2022 16 May 2022 This study presents an extensive study of climate change impacts on river temperature in Switzerland. Results show that, even for low-emission scenarios, water temperature increase will lead to adverse effects for both ecosystems and socio-economic sectors throughout the 21st century. For high-emission scenarios, the effect will worsen. This study also shows that water seasonal warming will be different between the Alpine regions and the lowlands. Finally, efficiency of models is assessed. Read more
Using neural network ensembles to separate ocean biogeochemical and physical drivers of phytoplankton biogeography in Earth system models Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-1595-2022 13 May 2022 It can be challenging to understand why Earth system models (ESMs) produce specific results because one can arrive at the same result simply by changing the values of the parameters. In our paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to use machine learning to figure out how and why particular components of an ESM (such as biology or ocean circulations) affect the output. This work could be applied to observations to improve the accuracy of the formulations used in ESMs. Read more