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Social sensing a volcanic eruption: application to Kīlauea, 2018

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-1681-2025
13 May 2025

Protecting lives and livelihoods during volcanic eruptions is the key challenge in volcanology. Analysing social media usage during volcanic crises can help us better understand the impacts of volcanic eruptions and how warning messages are received and actioned, to eventually better protect those people and their livelihoods. Our work shows how social media data could be used in real time during a volcanic crisis to learn more about volcanic eruptions.

Cold-water coral mounds are effective carbon sinks in the western Mediterranean Sea

Cold-water coral mounds are large structures on the seabed that are built by corals over thousands of years. They are regarded as carbonate sinks, with a potentially important role in the marine carbon cycle, but more quantitative studies are needed. Using sediment cores, we calculate the amount of carbon that has been stored in two mounds over the last 400 000 years. We provide the first numbers and show that up to 19 times more carbon is accumulated in mounds than on the common seafloor.

Speed-up, slowdown, and redirection of ice flow on neighbouring ice streams in the Pope, Smith, and Kohler region of West Antarctica

We used satellite observations to measure recent changes in ice speed and flow direction in the Pope, Smith, and Kohler region of West Antarctica (2005–2022). We found substantial speed-up on seven ice streams of up to 87 %. However, Kohler West Glacier has slowed by 10 %, due to the redirection of ice flow into its rapidly thinning neighbour. This process of “ice piracy” has not previously been directly observed on this rapid timescale and may influence future ice shelf and sheet mass changes.

The system of atmosphere, land, ice and ocean in the region near the 79N Glacier in northeast Greenland: synthesis and key findings from the Greenland Ice Sheet–Ocean Interaction (GROCE) experiment

The Greenland Ice Sheet represents the second-largest contributor to global sea-level rise. We quantify atmosphere, ice and ocean processes related to the mass balance of glaciers in northeast Greenland, focusing on Greenland’s largest floating ice tongue, the 79° N Glacier. We find that together, the different in situ and remote sensing observations and model simulations reveal a consistent picture of a coupled atmosphere–ice sheet–ocean system that has entered a phase of major change.

Missing the input: the underrepresentation of plant physiology in global soil carbon research

Plant physiology has been addressed by less than 10 % of peer-reviewed soil organic carbon research published in the last century. Thus, our understanding of soil carbon dynamics is overwhelmingly built on research that neglects the fundamental processes underlying organic carbon inputs. Active engagement of plant scientists in soil carbon research is imperative for shedding light on this blind spot and developing holistic policies that support soil carbon sequestration.

Graphical representation of global water models

Global water models contribute to the evaluation of important natural and societal issues but are – as all models – simplified representation of reality. So, there are many ways to calculate the water fluxes and storages. This paper presents a visualization of 16 global water models using a standardized visualization and the pathway towards this common understanding. Next to academic education purposes, we envisage that these diagrams will help researchers, model developers, and data users.

High probability of triggering climate tipping points under current policies modestly amplified by Amazon dieback and permafrost thaw

We investigate the probabilities of triggering climate tipping points under various emission scenarios and how they are altered by additional carbon emissions from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost. We find that there is a high risk for triggering climate tipping points under a scenario comparable to current policies. However, the additional warming and hence the additional risk of triggering other climate tipping points from the tipping of the Amazon and permafrost remain small.

Cenozoic pelagic accumulation rates and biased sampling of the deep-sea record

We provide a new compilation of rates at which sediments deposited in the deep sea over the last 70 million years. We highlight a bias, linked to the drilling process, that makes it more likely for high rates to be recovered for younger sediments than for older ones. Correcting for this bias, the record shows, contrary to prior estimates, a more stable history, thus providing some insights on the past mismatch between physico-chemical model estimates and observations.

The energy-efficient reductive tricarboxylic acid cycle drives carbon uptake and transfer to higher trophic levels within the Kueishantao shallow-water hydrothermal system

In acidic hot springs off Kueishantao, Campylobacteria fix CO₂ by using the reductive tricarboxylic acid (rTCA) cycle, causing them to have an isotopically heavier biomass. Here, we report extremely low isotopic fractionation (of almost 0 ‰), which has never been reported in environmental samples. Moreover, the crab Xenograpsus testudinatus relies up to 34 % on campylobacterial biomass, highlighting the dependency of complex life on microscopic Bacteria in harsh environments.

High-resolution Holocene record based on detailed tephrochronology from Torfdalsvatn, north Iceland, reveals natural and anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial and aquatic environments

Questions remain about the past climate in Iceland, including the relative impacts of natural and human factors on vegetation change and soil erosion. We present a sub-centennial-scale record of landscape and algal productivity from a lake in north Iceland. Along with a high-resolution tephra age constraint that covers the last ∼ 12 000 years, our record provides an environmental template for the region and novel insight into the sensitivity of the Icelandic ecosystem to natural and human impacts.

Inter-model differences in 21st century glacier runoff for the world's major river basins

Glacier models have historically been used to understand glacier melt’s contribution to sea level rise. The capacity to project seasonal glacier runoff is a relatively recent development for these models. In this study we provide the first model intercomparison of runoff projections for the glacier evolution models capable of simulating future runoff globally. We compare model projections from 2000 to 2100 for all major river basins larger than 3000 km² with over 30 km² of initial glacier cover.

Stratospheric residence time and the lifetime of volcanic stratospheric aerosols

The climate impact of volcanic eruptions depends in part on how long aerosols spend in the stratosphere. We develop a conceptual model for stratospheric aerosol lifetime in terms of production and decay timescales, as well as a lag between injection and decay. We find residence time depends strongly on injection height in the lower stratosphere. We show that the lifetime of stratospheric aerosol from the 1991 Pinatubo eruption is around 22 months, significantly longer than is commonly reported.

Incorporating science communication and bicultural knowledge in teaching a blended volcanology course

We added more science communication activities and cultural content from Māori cultural experts in a course that combines online interactive virtual fieldtrip content with reflective workshops, laboratory sessions, and fieldwork, to reflect a need for these skills in the Aotearoa NZ workforce. Students mentioned science communication and cultural competence more when responding to a survey question regarding What they learnt?, and they highlighted the importance that these skills might have for themselves.

Pristine oceans are a significant source of uncertainty in quantifying global cloud condensation nuclei

Aerosol particles in the atmosphere increase cloud reflectivity, thereby cooling the Earth. Accurate global measurements of these particles are crucial for estimating this cooling effect. This study compares and harmonizes two newly developed global aerosol datasets, offering insights for their future use and refinement. We identify pristine oceans as a significant source of uncertainty in the datasets and, therefore, in quantifying the role of aerosols in Earth's climate.

Potential for equation discovery with AI in the climate sciences

AI is impacting science, providing key data insights, but most algorithms are statistical requiring cautious "out-of-sample" extrapolation. Yet climate research concerns predicting future climatic states. We consider a new method of AI-led equation discovery. Equations offer process interpretation and more robust predictions. We recommend this method for climate analysis, suggesting illustrative application to atmospheric convection, land–atmosphere CO₂ flux, and global ocean circulation models.

Composite model-based estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022

The ocean is a major natural carbon sink. Despite its importance, estimates of the ocean carbon sink remain uncertain. Here, I present a hybrid model estimate of the ocean carbon sink from 1959 to 2022. By combining ocean models in hindcast mode and Earth system models, I keep the strength of each approach and remove the respective weaknesses. This composite model estimate is similar in magnitude to the best estimate of the Global Carbon Budget but 70 % less uncertain.

Modulation of the northern polar vortex by the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai eruption and the associated surface response

In January 2022, the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcano erupted, sending massive amounts of water vapour into the atmosphere. This event had a significant impact on stratospheric and lower-mesospheric chemical composition. Two years later, stratospheric conditions were disturbed during so-called sudden stratospheric warmings. Here we simulate a novel pathway by which this water-rich eruption may have contributed to conditions during these events and consequently impacted the surface climate.

The glaciers of the Dolomites: the last 40 years of melting

We have reconstructed the multi-decadal (1980s–2023) ice mass changes for all the current mountain glaciers in the Dolomites. We used historical aerial photographs, drone surveys, and lidar to fill the glaciological data gap for the region. We observed an alarming decline in both glacier area and volume, with some of the glaciers showing smaller losses due to local topography and debris cover feedback. We strongly recommend more specific monitoring of these glaciers.

Decadal changes in phytoplankton functional composition in the Eastern English Channel: possible upcoming major effects of climate change

This study provides the first assessment of decadal changes in the whole phytoplankton community, addressed by flow cytometry, in the highly productive waters of the Strait of Dover. A significant surface seawater temperature increase of 1°C, associated with an important change in the nutrient concentration and balance, has triggered a change in the phytoplankton communities, characterized by a higher total abundance and an increasing proportion of the smallest cells (picroeukaryotes and picocyanobacteria).

Reconstruction of Holocene and Last Interglacial vegetation dynamics and wildfire activity in southern Siberia

We analyse a southern Siberian stalagmite to reconstruct soil respiration, wildfire, and vegetation trends during the Last Interglacial (LIG) (124.1–118.8 ka) and the Holocene (10–0 ka). Wildfires were more prevalent during the LIG than the Holocene and were supported by fire-prone species, low soil respiration, and a greater difference between summer and winter temperature. We show that vegetation type and summer/winter temperature contrast are strong drivers of Siberian wildfires.