Opinion: Cloud-phase climate feedback and the importance of ice-nucleatingparticles Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-21-665-2021 5 February 2021 Shallow clouds covering vast areas of the world’s middle- and high-latitude oceans play a key role in dampening the global temperaturerise associated with CO2. These clouds, which contain both ice andsupercooled water, respond to a warming world by transitioning to a statewith more liquid water and a greater albedo, resulting in a negative“cloud-phase” climate feedback component. Here we argue that the magnitudeof the negative cloud-phase feedback component depends on the amount andnature of the small fraction of aerosol particles that can nucleate icecrystals. We propose that a concerted research effort is required to reducesubstantial uncertainties related to the poorly understoodsources, concentration, seasonal cycles and nature of these ice-nucleatingparticles (INPs) and their rudimentary treatment in climate models. Thetopic is important because many climate models may have overestimated themagnitude of the cloud-phase feedback, and those with better representationof shallow oceanic clouds predict a substantially larger climate warming. Wemake the case that understanding the present-day INP population in shallowclouds in the cold sector of cyclone systems is particularly critical fordefining present-day cloud phase and therefore how the clouds respond towarming. We also need to develop a predictive capability for future INPemissions and sinks in a warmer world with less ice and snow and potentiallystronger INP sources. Read more
ModIs Dust AeroSol (MIDAS): a global fine-resolution dust optical depth data set Atmospheric Measurement Techniques DOI 10.5194/amt-14-309-2021 4 February 2021 Monitoring and describing the spatiotemporal variability in dust aerosols is crucial for understanding their multiple effects, related feedbacks, and impacts within the Earth system. This study describes the development of the ModIs Dust AeroSol (MIDAS) data set. MIDAS provides columnar daily dust optical depth (DOD) at 550 nm at a global scale and fine spatial resolution (0.1∘ × 0.1∘) over a 15-year period (2003–2017). This new data set combines quality filtered satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) retrievals from MODIS-Aqua at swath level (Collection 6.1; Level 2), along with DOD-to-AOD ratios provided by the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis to derive DOD on the MODIS native grid. The uncertainties of the MODIS AOD and MERRA-2 dust fraction, with respect to the AEronet RObotic NETwork (AERONET) and LIdar climatology of vertical Aerosol Structure for space-based lidar simulation (LIVAS), respectively, are taken into account for the estimation of the total DOD uncertainty. MERRA-2 dust fractions are in very good agreement with those of LIVAS across the dust belt in thetropical Atlantic Ocean and the Arabian Sea; the agreement degrades in North America and the Southern Hemisphere, where dust sources are smaller. MIDAS, MERRA-2, and LIVAS DODs strongly agree when it comes to annual and seasonal spatial patterns, with colocated global DOD averages of 0.033, 0.031, and 0.029, respectively; however, deviations in dust loading are evident and regionally dependent. Overall, MIDAS is well correlated with AERONET-derived DODs (R=0.89) and only shows a small positive bias (0.004 or 2.7 %). Among the major dust areas of the planet, the highest R values (>0.9) are found at sites of North Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. MIDAS expands, complements, and upgrades the existing observational capabilities of dust aerosols, and it is suitable for dust climatological studies, model evaluation, and data assimilation. Read more
On the ice-nucleating potential of warm hydrometeors in mixed-phase clouds Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-21-561-2021 3 February 2021 The question as to whether or not the presence of warm hydrometeors in clouds mayplay a significant role in the nucleation of new ice particles has been debatedfor several decades. While the early works of and indicated that it might be irrelevant, the more recentstudy of suggested otherwise. In this work, weattempt to quantify the ice-nucleating potential using high-fidelity flowsimulation techniques around a single hydrometeor and use favorable considerationsto upscale the effects to a collective of ice particles in clouds. While we find that ice nucleationmay be significantly enhanced in the vicinity of a warm hydrometeorand that the affected volume of air is much larger than previously estimated, it isunlikely that this effect alone causes the rapidenhancement of ice nucleation observed in some types of clouds, mainly due to the lowinitial volumetric ice concentration. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that the excess nucleationrate does not primarily depend on the rate at which cloud volume is sampled by the meteors’wakes but is rather limited by the exposure time of ice-nucleating particles to the wake,which is estimated to be of the order of few microseconds. It is suggested to further investigatethis phenomenon by tracking the trajectories of ice-nucleating particles in order to obtaina parametrization which can be implemented into existing cloud models to investigate second-order effectssuch as ice enhancement after the onset of glaciation. Read more
Stratospheric aerosol layer perturbation caused by the 2019 Raikoke and Ulawun eruptions and their radiative forcing Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-21-535-2021 2 February 2021 In June 2019 a stratospheric eruption occurred at Raikoke (48∘ N,153∘ E). Satellite observations show the injection of ash and SO2 into the lower stratosphere and an early entrainment of the plume into a cyclone. Following the Raikoke eruption, stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD) values increased in the whole Northern Hemisphere and tropics and remained enhanced for more than 1 year, with peak values at 0.040 (short-wavelength, high northern latitudes) to 0.025 (short-wavelength, Northern Hemisphere average). Discrepancies between observations and global model simulations indicate that ash may have influenced the extent and evolution of the sAOD. Top of the atmosphere radiative forcings are estimated at values between -0.3 and -0.4Wm-2 (clear-sky) and of -0.1 to -0.2Wm-2 (all-sky), comparable to what was estimated for the Sarychev eruption in 2009. Almost simultaneously two significantly smaller stratospheric eruptions occurred at Ulawun (5∘ S, 151∘ E) in June and August. Aerosol enhancements from the Ulawun eruptions mainly had an impact on the tropics and Southern Hemisphere. The Ulawun plume circled the Earth within 1 month in the tropics. Peak shorter-wavelength sAOD values at 0.01 are found in the tropics following the Ulawun eruptions and a radiative forcing not exceeding -0.15 (clear-sky) and -0.05 (all-sky). Compared to the Canadian fires (2017), Ambae eruption (2018), Ulawun (2019) and the Australian fires (2019/2020), the highest sAOD and radiative forcing values are found for the Raikoke eruption. Read more
Fire and vegetation dynamics in northwest Siberia during the last 60 years based on high-resolution remote sensing Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-18-207-2021 1 February 2021 The rapidly warming Arctic undergoes transitions that can influence global carbon balance. One of the key processes is the shift towards vegetation types with higher biomass underlining a stronger carbon sink. The shift is predicted by bioclimatic models based on abiotic climatic factors, but it is not always confirmed with observations. Recent studies highlight the role of disturbances in the shift. Here we use high-resolution remote sensing to study the process of transition from tundra to forest and its connection to wildfires in the 20 000 km2 area in northwest Siberia. Overall, 40 % of the study area was burned during a 60-year period. Three-quarters of the burned areas were dry tundra. About 10 % of the study area experienced two–three fires with an interval of 15–60 years suggesting a shorter fire return interval than that reported earlier for the northern areas of central Siberia (130–350 years). Based on our results, the shift in vegetation (within the 60-year period) occurred in 40 %–85 % of the burned territories. All fire-affected territories were flat; therefore no effect of topography was detected. Oppositely, in the undisturbed areas, a transition of vegetation was observed only in 6 %–15 % of the territories, characterized by steeper topographic slopes. Our results suggest a strong role of disturbances in the tree advance in northwest Siberia. Read more
Millennial-age glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) in forested mineral soils: 14C-based evidence for stabilization of microbial necromass Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-18-189-2021 29 January 2021 Understanding controls on the persistence of soil organic matter (SOM) is essential to constrain its role in the carbon cycle and inform climate–carbon cycle model predictions. Emerging concepts regarding the formation and turnover of SOM imply that it is mainly comprised of mineral-stabilized microbial products and residues; however, direct evidence in support of this concept remains limited. Here, we introduce and test a method for the isolation of isoprenoid and branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (GDGTs) – diagnostic membrane lipids of archaea and bacteria, respectively – for subsequent natural abundance radiocarbon analysis. The method is applied to depth profiles from two Swiss pre-Alpine forested soils. We find that the Δ14C values of these microbial markers markedly decrease with increasing soil depth, indicating turnover times of millennia in mineral subsoils. The contrasting metabolisms of the GDGT-producing microorganisms indicates it is unlikely that the low Δ14C values of these membrane lipids reflect heterotrophic acquisition of 14C-depleted carbon. We therefore attribute the 14C-depleted signatures of GDGTs to their physical protection through association with mineral surfaces. These findings thus provide strong evidence for the presence of stabilized microbial necromass in forested mineral soils. Read more
Increased carbon capture by a silicate-treated forested watershed affected by acid deposition Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-18-169-2021 28 January 2021 Meeting internationally agreed-upon climate targets requirescarbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies coupled with an urgent phase-down offossil fuel emissions. However, the efficacy and wider impacts of CDR arepoorly understood. Enhanced rock weathering (ERW) is a land-based CDRstrategy requiring large-scale field trials. Here we show that a low 3.44 t ha-1 wollastonite treatment in an 11.8 ha acid-rain-impacted forested watershed in New Hampshire, USA, led to cumulative carbon capture by carbonic acid weathering of 0.025–0.13 t CO2 ha-1 over 15 years. Despite a 0.8–2.4 t CO2 ha-1 logistical carbon penalty from mining,grinding, transportation, and spreading, by 2015 weathering together withincreased forest productivity led to net CDR of 8.5–11.5 t CO2 ha-1. Our results demonstrate that ERW may be an effective, scalableCDR strategy for acid-impacted forests but at large scales requiressustainable sources of silicate rock dust. Read more
Intercomparison of freshwater fluxes over ocean and investigations into water budget closure Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-25-121-2021 27 January 2021 The net exchange of water between the surface and atmosphere is mainly determined by the freshwater flux: the difference between evaporation ( E ) and precipitation ( P ), or E−P . Although there is consensus among modelers that with a warming climate E−P will increase, evidence from satellite data is still not conclusive, mainly due to sensor calibration issues. We here investigate the degree of correspondence among six recent satellite-based climate data records and ERA5 reanalysis E−P data. Read more
Evaluating the dependence structure of compound precipitation and wind speed extremes Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-12-1-2021 26 January 2021 Compound extremes such as heavy precipitation and extreme winds can lead to large damage. To date it is unclear how well climate models represent such compound extremes. Here we present a new measure to assess differences in the dependence structure of bivariate extremes. This measure is applied to assess differences in the dependence of compound precipitation and wind extremes between three model simulations and one reanalysis dataset in a domain in central Europe. Read more
Glider-based observations of CO2 in the Labrador Sea Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-17-1-2021 25 January 2021 This paper describes challenges around the direct measurement of CO 2 in the ocean using ocean gliders. We discuss our method of using multiple sensor platforms as test beds to carry out observing experiments and highlight the implications of our study for future glider missions. We also show high-resolution measurements and discuss challenges and lessons learned in the context of future ocean gas measurements. Read more
Southern Ocean Biogeochemical Argo detect under-ice phytoplankton growth before sea ice retreat Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-18-25-2021 22 January 2021 This paper examines the question of what causes the rapid spring growth of microscopic marine algae (phytoplankton) in the ice-covered ocean surrounding Antarctica. One prominent hypothesis proposes that the melting of sea ice is the primary cause, while our results suggest that this is only part of the explanation. In particular, we show that phytoplankton are able to start growing before the sea ice melts appreciably, much earlier than previously thought. Read more
Plateaus and jumps in the atmospheric radiocarbon record – potential origin and value as global age markers for glacial-to-deglacial paleoceanography, a synthesis Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-16-2547-2020 21 January 2021 The dating technique of 14 C plateau tuning uses U/Th-based model ages, refinements of the Lake Suigetsu age scale, and the link of surface ocean carbon to the globally mixed atmosphere as basis of age correlation. Our synthesis employs data of 20 sediment cores from the global ocean and offers a coherent picture of global ocean circulation evolving over glacial-to-deglacial times on semi-millennial scales to be compared with climate records stored in marine sediments, ice cores, and speleothems. Read more
Long-term deposition and condensation ice-nucleatingparticle measurements from four stations across the globe Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-20-15983-2020 20 January 2021 Long-term ice-nucleating particle (INP) data are presented from four semi-pristine sites located in the Amazon, the Caribbean, Germany and the Arctic. Average INP concentrations did not differ by orders of magnitude between the sites. For all sites short-term variability dominated the time series, which lacked clear trends and seasonalities. Common drivers to explain the INP levels and their variations could not be identified, illustrating the complex nature of heterogeneous ice nucleation. Read more
Emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity in CMIP5: do they hold for CMIP6? Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-11-1233-2020 19 January 2021 As an important measure of climate change, the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) describes the change in surface temperature after a doubling of the atmospheric CO 2 concentration. Climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) show a wide range in ECS. Emergent constraints are a technique to reduce uncertainties in ECS with observational data. Emergent constraints developed with data from CMIP phase 5 show reduced skill and higher ECS ranges when applied to CMIP6 data. Read more
Brief communication: Heterogenous thinning and subglacial lake activity on Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-14-4603-2020 18 January 2021 The West Antarctic Ice Sheet has long been considered geometrically prone to collapse, and Thwaites Glacier, the largest glacier in the Amundsen Sea, is likely in the early stages of disintegration. Using observations of Thwaites Glacier velocity and elevation change, we show that the transport of ~2 km 3 of water beneath Thwaites Glacier has only a small and transient effect on glacier speed relative to ongoing thinning driven by ocean melt. Read more
Downsizing parameter ensembles for simulations of rare floods Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-3521-2020 15 January 2021 This work proposes methods for reducing the computational requirements of hydrological simulations for the estimation of very rare floods that occur on average less than once in 1000 years. These methods enable the analysis of long streamflow time series (here for example 10 000 years) at low computational costs and with modelling uncertainty. They are to be used within continuous simulation frameworks with long input time series and are readily transferable to similar simulation tasks. Read more
Biases in the albedo sensitivity to deforestation in CMIP5 models and their impacts on the associated historical radiative forcing Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-11-1209-2020 14 January 2021 Trees are darker than crops or grasses; hence, they absorb more solar radiation. Therefore, land cover changes modify the fraction of solar radiation reflected by the land surface (its albedo), with consequences for the climate. We apply a new statistical method to simulations conducted with 15 recent climate models and find that albedo variations due to land cover changes since 1860 have led to a decrease in the net amount of energy entering the atmosphere by −0.09 W m 2 on average. Read more
Quantifying CO2 emissions of a city with the Copernicus Anthropogenic CO2 Monitoring satellite mission Atmospheric Measurement Techniques DOI 10.5194/amt-13-6733-2020 13 January 2021 The European CO2M mission is a proposed constellation of CO 2 imaging satellites expected to monitor CO 2 emissions of large cities. Using synthetic observations, we show that a constellation of two or more satellites should be able to quantify Berlin’s annual emissions with 10–20 % accuracy, even when considering atmospheric transport model errors. We therefore expect that CO2M will make an important contribution to the monitoring and verification of CO 2 emissions from cities worldwide. Read more
New global characterisation of landslide exposure Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-3413-2020 12 January 2021 Landslides cause thousands of fatalities and cost billions of dollars of damage worldwide every year, but different inventories of landslide events can have widely diverging completeness. This can lead to spatial biases in our understanding of the impacts. Here we use a globally homogeneous model of landslide hazard and exposure to provide consistent estimates of where landslides are most likely to cause damage to people, roads and other critical infrastructure at 1 km resolution. Read more
Tropical Pacific climate variability under solar geoengineering: impacts onENSO extremes Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-20-15461-2020 11 January 2021 Solar geoengineering has been introduced to mitigate human-caused global warming by reflecting sunlight back into space. This research investigates the impact of solar geoengineering on the tropical Pacific climate. We find that solar geoengineering can compensate some of the greenhouse-induced changes in the tropical Pacific but not all. In particular, solar geoengineering will result in significant changes in rainfall, sea surface temperatures, and increased frequency of extreme ENSO events. Read more