The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-9075-2022 22 February 2023 Assessing hundreds or thousands of emission scenarios in terms of their global mean temperature implications requires standardised procedures of infilling, harmonisation, and probabilistic temperature assessments. We here present the open-source “climate-assessment” workflow that was used in the IPCC AR6 Working Group III report. The paper provides key insight for anyone wishing to understand the assessment of climate outcomes of mitigation pathways in the context of the Paris Agreement. IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures">Read more
Global biomass burning fuel consumption and emissions at 500m spatial resolution based on the Global Fire Emissions Database (GFED) Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-8411-2022 23 January 2023 We present a global fire emission model based on the GFED model framework with a spatial resolution of 500 m. The higher resolution allowed for a more detailed representation of spatial heterogeneity in fuels and emissions. Specific modules were developed to model, for example, emissions from fire-related forest loss and belowground burning. Results from the 500 m model were compared to GFED4s, showing that global emissions were relatively similar but that spatial differences were substantial. GFED)">Read more
HORAYZON v1.2: an efficient and flexible ray-tracing algorithm to compute horizon and sky view factor Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-6817-2022 28 November 2022 Terrain horizon and sky view factor are crucial quantities for many geoscientific applications; e.g. they are used to account for effects of terrain on surface radiation in climate and land surface models. Because typical terrain horizon algorithms are inefficient for high-resolution (< 30 m) elevation data, we developed a new algorithm based on a ray-tracing library. A comparison with two conventional methods revealed both its high performance and its accuracy for complex terrain. HORAYZON v1.2: an efficient and flexible ray-tracing algorithm to compute horizon and sky view factor">Read more
Root-mean-square error (RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE): when to use them or not Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-5481-2022 24 October 2022 The task of evaluating competing models is fundamental to science. Models are evaluated based on an objective function, the choice of which ultimately influences what scientists learn from their observations. The mean absolute error (MAE) and root-mean-squared error (RMSE) are two such functions. Both are widely used, yet there remains enduring confusion over their use. This article reviews the theoretical justification behind their usage, as well as alternatives for when they are not suitable. RMSE) or mean absolute error (MAE): when to use them or not">Read more
The eWaterCycle platform for open and FAIR hydrological collaboration Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-5371-2022 21 October 2022 With the eWaterCycle platform, we are providing the hydrological community with a platform to conduct their research that is fully compatible with the principles of both open science and FAIR science. The eWatercyle platform gives easy access to well-known hydrological models, big datasets and example experiments. Using eWaterCycle hydrologists can easily compare the results from different models, couple models and do more complex hydrological computational research. FAIR hydrological collaboration">Read more
Towards automatic finite-element methods for geodynamics via Firedrake Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-5127-2022 23 September 2022 Firedrake is a state-of-the-art system that automatically generates highly optimised code for simulating finite-element (FE) problems in geophysical fluid dynamics. It creates a separation of concerns between employing the FE method and implementing it. Here, we demonstrate the applicability and benefits of Firedrake for simulating geodynamical flows, with a focus on the slow creeping motion of Earth’s mantle over geological timescales, which is ultimately the engine driving our dynamic Earth. Read more
Training a supermodel with noisy and sparse observations: a case study with CPT and the synch rule on SPEEDO – v.1 Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-3831-2022 8 August 2022 In this study, we present a novel formulation to build a dynamical combination of models, the so-called supermodel, which needs to be trained based on data. Previously, we assumed complete and noise-free observations. Here, we move towards a realistic scenario and develop adaptations to the training methods in order to cope with sparse and noisy observations. The results are very promising and shed light on how to apply the method with state of the art general circulation models. CPT and the synch rule on SPEEDO – v.1">Read more
Using neural network ensembles to separate ocean biogeochemical and physical drivers of phytoplankton biogeography in Earth system models Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-1595-2022 13 May 2022 It can be challenging to understand why Earth system models (ESMs) produce specific results because one can arrive at the same result simply by changing the values of the parameters. In our paper, we demonstrate that it is possible to use machine learning to figure out how and why particular components of an ESM (such as biology or ocean circulations) affect the output. This work could be applied to observations to improve the accuracy of the formulations used in ESMs. Read more
The Whole Antarctic Ocean Model (WAOM v1.0): development and evaluation Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-617-2022 15 April 2022 Here we present an improved model of the Antarctic continental shelf ocean and demonstrate that it is capable of reproducing present-day conditions. The improvements are fundamental and regard the inclusion of tides and ocean eddies. We conclude that the model is well suited to gain new insights into processes that are important for Antarctic ice sheet retreat and global ocean changes. The model will ultimately help to improve projections of sea level rise and climate change. WAOM v1.0): development and evaluation">Read more
Impact of increased resolution on long-standing biases in HighResMIP-PRIMAVERA climate models Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-15-269-2022 11 April 2022 Climate models do not fully reproduce observations: they show differences (biases) in regional temperature, precipitation, or cloud cover. Reducing model biases is important to increase our confidence in their ability to reproduce present and future climate changes. Model realism is set by its resolution: the finer it is, the more physical processes and interactions it can resolve. We here show that increasing resolution of up to ~ 25 km can help reduce model biases but not remove them entirely. PRIMAVERA climate models">Read more