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Review article: Geothermal heat flow in Antarctica: current and future directions

The Antarctic ice sheet is the largest source for sea level rise. However, one key control on ice sheet flow remains poorly constrained: the effect of heat from the rocks beneath the ice sheet (known as geothermal heat flow). Although this may not seem like a lot of heat, beneath thick, slow ice this heat can control how well the ice flows and can lead to melting of the ice sheet. We discuss the methods used to estimate this heat, compile existing data, and recommend future research.

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

The Antarctic ice sheet has been losing mass over at least the past 3 decades in response to changes in atmospheric and oceanic conditions. This study presents an ensemble of model simulations of the Antarctic evolution over the 2015–2100 period based on various ice sheet models, climate forcings and emission scenarios. Results suggest that the West Antarctic ice sheet will continue losing a large amount of ice, while the East Antarctic ice sheet could experience increased snow accumulation.

A protocol for calculating basal melt rates in the ISMIP6 Antarctic ice sheet projections

To predict the future Antarctic contribution to sea level rise, we need to use ice sheet models. The Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for AR6 (ISMIP6) builds an ensemble of ice sheet projections constrained by atmosphere and ocean projections from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). In this work, we present and assess a method to derive ice shelf basal melting in ISMIP6 from the CMIP6 ocean outputs, and we give examples of projected melt rates.

The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6

In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century.
The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively.

Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+)

We present the results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+). MISMIP+ is one in a series of exercises that test numerical models of ice sheet flow in simple situations. This particular exercise concentrates on the response of ice sheet models to the thinning of their floating ice shelves, which is of interest because numerical models are currently used to model the response to contemporary and near-future thinning in Antarctic ice shelves.

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The MOSAiC ice floe: sediment-laden survivor from the Siberian shelf

In October 2019 the research vessel Polarstern was moored to an ice floe in order to travel with it on the 1-year-long MOSAiC journey through the Arctic. Here we provide historical context of the floe’s evolution and initial state for upcoming studies. We show that the ice encountered on site was exceptionally thin and was formed on the shallow Siberian shelf. The analyses presented provide the initial state for the analysis and interpretation of upcoming biogeochemical and ecological studies.

Landfast sea ice material properties derived from ice bridge simulations using the Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology

We study the formation of ice arches between two islands using a model that resolves crack initiation and propagation. This model uses a damage parameter to parameterize the presence or absence of cracks in the ice. We find that the damage parameter allows for cracks to propagate in the ice but in a different orientation than predicted by theory. The results call for improvement in how stress relaxation associated with this damage is parameterized.

Changes of the Arctic marginal ice zone during the satellite era

It is well known that the Arctic sea ice extent is declining, and it is often assumed that the marginal ice zone (MIZ), the area of partial sea ice cover, is consequently increasing. However, we find no trend in the MIZ extent during the last 40 years from observations that is consistent with a widening of the MIZ as it moves northward. Differences of MIZ extent between different satellite retrievals are too large to provide a robust basis to verify model simulations of MIZ extent.

New observations of the distribution, morphology and dissolution dynamics of cryogenic gypsum in the Arctic Ocean

Based on an observed omnipresence of gypsum crystals, we concluded that their release from melting sea ice is a general feature in the Arctic Ocean. Individual gypsum crystals sank at more than 7000 m d ⁻¹ , suggesting that they are an important ballast mineral. Previous observations found gypsum inside phytoplankton aggregates at 2000 m depth, supporting gypsum as an important driver for pelagic-benthic coupling in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean.

The catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage events of 2018 in northwestern Alaska: Fast-forward into the future

Northwestern Alaska has been highly affected by changing climatic patterns with new temperature and precipitation maxima over the recent years. In particular, the Baldwin and northern Seward peninsulas are characterized by an abundance of thermokarst lakes that are highly dynamic and prone to lake drainage, like many other regions at the southern margins of continuous permafrost. We used Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and Planet CubeSat optical remote sensing data to analyze recently observed widespread lake drainage.

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