Land cover and management effects on ecosystem resistance to drought stress Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-14-1211-2023 20 November 2023 Ecosystem resistance reflects their susceptibility during adverse conditions and can be changed by land management. We estimate ecosystem resistance to drought and temperature globally. We find a higher resistance to drought in forests compared to croplands and an evident loss of resistance to drought when primary forests are converted to secondary forests or they are harvested. Old-growth trees tend to be more resistant in some forests and crops benefit from irrigation during drought periods. Read more
Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic ice shelf melting in conditions plausible by late 23rd century in a high-end scenario Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-19-1595-2023 17 November 2023 How much the Antarctic ice shelf basal melt rate can increase in response to global warming remains an open question. To achieve this, we compared an ocean simulation under present-day atmospheric condition to a one under late 23rd century atmospheric conditions. The ocean response to the perturbation includes a decrease in the production of cold dense water and an increased intrusion of warmer water onto the continental shelves. This induces a substantial increase in ice shelf basal melt rates. Read more
Universal differential equations for glacier ice flow modelling Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-16-6671-2023 15 November 2023 We developed a new modelling framework combining numerical methods with machine learning. Using this approach, we focused on understanding how ice moves within glaciers, and we successfully learnt a prescribed law describing ice movement for 17 glaciers worldwide as a proof of concept. Our framework has the potential to discover important laws governing glacier processes, aiding our understanding of glacier physics and their contribution to water resources and sea-level rise. Read more
Machine learning for numerical weather and climate modelling: a review Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-16-6433-2023 13 November 2023 Machine learning (ML) is an increasingly popular tool in the field of weather and climate modelling. While ML has been used in this space for a long time, it is only recently that ML approaches have become competitive with more traditional methods. In this review, we have summarized the use of ML in weather and climate modelling over time; provided an overview of key ML concepts, methodologies, and terms; and suggested promising avenues for further research. Read more
ESD Ideas: Arctic amplification’s contribution to breaches of the Paris Agreement Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-14-1165-2023 10 November 2023 The Arctic is warming several times faster than the rest of the planet. Here, we use climate model projections to quantify for the first time how this faster warming in the Arctic impacts the timing of crossing the 1.5 °C and 2 °C thresholds defined in the Paris Agreement. We show that under plausible emissions scenarios that fail to meet the Paris 1.5 °C target, a hypothetical world without faster warming in the Arctic would breach that 1.5 °C target around 5 years later. Read more
Opinion: A critical evaluation of the evidence for aerosol invigoration of deep convection Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-23-13791-2023 8 November 2023 As atmospheric particles called aerosols increase in number, the number of droplets in clouds tends to increase, which has been theorized to increase storm intensity. We critically evaluate the evidence for this theory, showing that flaws and limitations of previous studies coupled with unaddressed cloud process complexities draw it into question. We provide recommendations for future observations and modelling to overcome current uncertainties. Read more
Mechanisms controlling giant sea salt aerosol size distributions along a tropical orographic coastline Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-23-13735-2023 6 November 2023 Sea salt aerosol is an important marine aerosol that may be produced in greater quantities in coastal regions than over the open ocean. This study observed these particles along the windward coastline of O’ahu, Hawai’i, to understand how wind and waves influence their production and dispersal. Overall, wave heights were the strongest variable correlated with changes in aerosol concentrations, while wind speeds played an important role in their horizontal dispersal and vertical mixing. Read more
Rejuvenating the ocean: mean ocean radiocarbon, CO2 release, and radiocarbon budget closure across the last deglaciation Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-19-2177-2023 3 November 2023 Radiocarbon is best known as a dating tool, but it also allows us to track CO2 exchange between the ocean and atmosphere. Using decades of data and novel mapping methods, we have charted the ocean’s average radiocarbon ″age” since the last Ice Age. Combined with climate model simulations, these data quantify the ocean’s role in atmospheric CO2 rise since the last Ice Age while also revealing that Earth likely received far more cosmic radiation during the last Ice Age than hitherto believed. Read more
Rate-induced tipping in ecosystems and climate: the role of unstable states, basin boundaries and transient dynamics Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics DOI 10.5194/npg-30-481-2023 1 November 2023 Many systems in nature are characterized by the coexistence of different stable states for given environmental parameters and external forcing. Examples can be found in different fields of science, ranging from ecosystems to climate dynamics. Perturbations can lead to critical transitions (tipping) from one stable state to another. The study of these transitions requires the development of new methodological approaches that allow for modelling, analysing and predicting them. Read more
A spectrum of geoscience communication: from dissemination to participation Geoscience Communication DOI 10.5194/gc-6-131-2023 30 October 2023 In this article, I explore the various ways the geosciences can be communicated to a wider audience. I focus on creative methods that range from sharing information to involving the public in the research process. By using examples from my own work and the wider literature, I demonstrate how these approaches can engage diverse communities and promote greater recognition for geoscience communication. Read more
N2O as a regression proxy for dynamical variability in stratospheric trace gas trends Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-23-13283-2023 27 October 2023 This paper presents a technique for understanding the causes of long-term changes in stratospheric composition. By using N2O as a proxy for stratospheric circulation in the model used to calculated trends, it is possible to separate the effects of dynamics and chemistry on observed trace gas trends. We find that observed HCl increases are due to changes in the stratospheric circulation, as are O3 decreases above 30 hPa in the Northern Hemisphere. Read more
Opinion: Recent developments and future directions in studying the mesosphere and lower thermosphere Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-23-13255-2023 25 October 2023 The mesosphere or lower thermosphere region of the atmosphere borders the edge of space. It is subject to extreme ultraviolet photons and charged particles from the Sun and atmospheric gravity waves from below, which tend to break in this region. The pressure is very low, which facilitates chemistry involving species in excited states, and this is also the region where cosmic dust ablates and injects various metals. The result is a unique and exotic chemistry. Read more
Mapping Antarctic crevasses and their evolution with deep learning applied to satellite radar imagery The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-17-4421-2023 23 October 2023 The presence of crevasses in Antarctica influences how the ice sheet behaves. It is important, therefore, to collect data on the spatial distribution of crevasses and how they are changing. We present a method of mapping crevasses from satellite radar imagery and apply it to 7.5 years of images, covering Antarctica’s floating and grounded ice. We develop a method of measuring change in the density of crevasses and quantify increased fracturing in important parts of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet. Read more
ESD Ideas: Translating historical extreme weather events into a warmer world Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-14-1081-2023 20 October 2023 Adapting to climate change requires an understanding of how extreme weather events are changing. We propose a new approach to examine how the consequences of a particular weather pattern have been made worse by climate change, using an example of a severe windstorm that occurred in 1903. When this storm is translated into a warmer world, it produces higher wind speeds and increased rainfall, suggesting that this storm would be more damaging if it occurred today rather than 120 years ago. Read more
Global observations of aerosol indirect effects from marine liquid clouds Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-23-13125-2023 18 October 2023 Interactions between aerosol pollution and liquid clouds are one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the effective radiative forcing of climate over the industrial era. We use global satellite observations to decompose the forcing into components from changes in cloud-droplet number concentration, cloud water content, and cloud amount. Our results reduce uncertainty in these forcing components and clarify their relative importance. Read more
Technical note: NASAaccess – a tool for access, reformatting, and visualization of remotely sensed earth observation and climate data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-27-3621-2023 16 October 2023 We present an open-source platform in response to the NASA Open-Source Science Initiative for accessing and presenting quantitative remote-sensing earth observation,and climate data. With our platform scientists, stakeholders and concerned citizens can engage in the exploration, modelling, and understanding of data. We envisioned this platform as lowering the technical barriers and simplifying the process of accessing and leveraging additional modelling frameworks for data. Read more
The dehydration carousel of stratospheric water vapor in the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-23-12935-2023 13 October 2023 We studied water vapour in a critical region of the atmosphere, the Asian summer monsoon anticyclone, using rare in situ observations. Our study shows that extremely high water vapour values observed in the stratosphere within the Asian monsoon anticyclone still undergo significant freeze-drying and that water vapour concentrations set by the Lagrangian dry point are a better proxy for the stratospheric water vapour budget than rare observations of enhanced water mixing ratios. Read more
Late Cenozoic sea-surface-temperature evolution of the South Atlantic Ocean Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-19-1931-2023 11 October 2023 We present two new sea surface temperature (SST) records in comparison with available SST records to reconstruct South Atlantic paleoceanographic evolution. Our results show a low SST gradient in the Eocene–early Oligocene due to the persistent gyral circulation. A higher SST gradient in the Middle–Late Miocene infers a stronger circumpolar current. The southern South Atlantic was the coldest region in the Southern Ocean and likely the main deep-water formation location in the Middle Miocene. Read more
Soil-biodegradable plastic films do not decompose in a lake sediment over 9 months of incubation Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-20-4213-2023 9 October 2023 Agriculture relies heavily on plastic mulch films, which may be transported to aquatic environments. We investigated the breakdown of soil-biodegradable agricultural mulch films in lake sediments. After 40 weeks, films were intact, and no significant CO2 or CH4 was produced from the biodegradable mulch films. We conclude that the mulch films we used have a low biodegradability in lake sediments. The sediment lacks the microbes needed to break down the biodegradable plastics that were used here. Read more
Linear polarization signatures of atmospheric dust with the SolPol direct-sun polarimeter Atmospheric Measurement Techniques DOI 10.5194/amt-16-4529-2023 6 October 2023 Atmospheric dust particles may present a preferential alignment due to their shape on long range transport. Since dust is abundant and plays a key role to global climate, the elusive observation of orientation will be a game changer to existing measurement techniques and the representation of particles in climate models. We utilize a specifically designed instrument, SolPol, and target the Sun from the ground for large polarization values under dusty conditions, a clear sign of orientation. Read more