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2131 items found

10 20 50

Natural disturbances from bark beetle outbreaks and windthrow increasingly affect Europe's most mature and carbon-rich forests

Europe’s forests store vast amounts of carbon, but climate-driven disturbances are becoming more frequent. By combining satellite records with information on forest age and structure, we show that recent disturbances increasingly affect the oldest and most carbon-rich forests, particularly spruce forests in Central Europe. This emerging pattern puts long-accumulated carbon at risk and may reduce the long-term climate benefits provided by Europe’s forests.

The impact of stochastic sea ice perturbations on seasonal forecasts

Numerical weather forecasts of sea ice are unreliable, exhibiting an overly narrow range of plausible sea ice evolutions. Stochastic perturbations introduce randomness to the forecast in order to alleviate this by representing uncertainties in the representation of sea ice physics. We show that including such perturbations in a forecast model improves the reliability of sea ice forecasts, and furthermore results in improved seasonal forecasts of the northern European winter circulation.

Saturation effect of background temperature and aridity on vegetation phenological sensitivity to urban warming

Using satellite data from 293 Chinese cities, we tested how background climate shapes vegetation responses to urban warming. Urban heat advances spring growth 12 days and delays autumn aging nearly 10 days, yet responses saturate with extra warming. Dryness weakens and reverses growing‑season extension in dry inland zones. Temperature and moisture explain about 75 % spatial variation. Our results challenge the view that urban heat always lengthens growing seasons for climate‑adapted greening.

Dune aurora: survey from a citizen science database

Dune aurora is an intriguing phenomenon recently discovered thanks to citizen science. It is a dim, diffuse auroral form exhibiting wave-like stripes of brighter emission. We carry out the first statistical study of dune aurora, using 308 observation reports submitted to the Skywarden database by citizen scientists from Europe, North America, and Oceania. We find that dunes are an evening phenomenon, most often reported in March and October and associated with currents in the auroral atmosphere.

Water masses in the Atlantic Ocean: water mass ages and ventilation

We measured the age of Atlantic waters using man-made gases and a radioactive isotope. Age increases with depth: young surface waters are about 30 years old, deep Antarctic water reaches 100 years, and the oldest bottom water is roughly 120 years. The western Atlantic is younger and better ventilated than the east. These patterns help estimate deep-sea oxygen use and are key for climate models and marine ecosystems.

From regular to random: a unifying framework for step-pool spacing

The expected spacing of step-pool sequences has long been mired in debate, hampering stream restoration efforts. We define a continuum to evaluate the degree of regularity and randomness across step-pools from field observations, flume experiments, and numerical simulations and show that the full range is occupied without one formation mechanism dominating. Bounds related to channel hydraulics provide a way to track dynamic step spacing without assuming a mechanism.

Quantifying the influence of wood carbon fractions on tree- and forest ecosystem-scale carbon estimation in a temperate forest

Forests are critical in the global carbon cycle. Accurate estimates of tree and forest carbon stocks depend on assumptions surrounding wood chemistry, though this is often overlooked in forest carbons science. We show that species-specific wood chemistry values upward-revise tree-and forest carbon stock estimates, though certain wood chemistry assumptions – namely, the commonly-employed 50 % wood carbon fraction assumption – over-estimate carbon stocks in virtually all temperate trees and forests.

Editorial: Introducing a new article type: Limitations, Errors, Surprises, Shortcomings and Opportunities for New Science (LESSONS)

We explain a new article type that is being introduced in participating EGU publications. "LESSONS" articles describe the Limitations, Errors, Surprises, Shortcomings and Opportunities for New Science emerging from the scientific process. The publication of non-positive results and associated learnings aims to complete an unbiased record of the research effort, contributes to open and transparent science, allows the authors and others to learn, and may open opportunities for new science.

Spatial heterogeneity in post-fire permafrost evolution as revealed by satellite radar observations

This study examines the impacts of wildfires on permafrost thaw in the Arctic spanning up to ~90 years post-fire and explores the potential of using radar satellite observations to enhance our understanding of environmental change. By assessing diverse high-latitude permafrost landscapes, we show that ground deformation anomalies after fires display similar patterns across regions, while radar backscatter varies depending on predominant ground temperatures.

Code accessibility and code quality across phases of the models of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project

We studied how accessible and reliable the computer code behind major climate models has been over time. By reviewing different phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, we found improvements in transparency and coding practices, but also gaps that limit reproducibility. Our work suggests practical steps to make future climate research more open, traceable, and trustworthy for scientists and society.

Forecast-based attribution of the role of stratospheric variability in weather extremes

Variability of the stratospheric polar vortex is thought to play a role in driving weather extremes, but quantifying this role for a given event has proved challenging. Using a new set of perturbed subseasonal forecast experiments from 7 modelling centres, we determine the stratospheric contribution to the risk and severity of three recent extreme weather events. The forecast-based methodology that we develop is applicable to understanding a range of other drivers of weather extremes.

Towards family-friendly conferences: results from a first survey in the geosciences

Balancing academic careers and family responsibilities presents significant challenges, particularly for early-career researchers attending conferences. These events are essential for professional development but often create logistical difficulties for parents. Based on a survey of geoscientists, we show that parents require more support and non-parents largely approve of family-friendly measures. We provide practical guidelines to help conference organizers support researchers with families.

Hysteresis and irreversibility in permafrost physical response to increase and decrease of CO₂ emissions

We investigated a response of permafrost using an Earth system model driven by an idealized overshooting carbon emission scenario, and found that the permafrost response to warming and cooling is reversible in the area but irreversible in its property. The permafrost response shows hysteresis, arising from a slow soil response tied to heat conductivity and specific heat of water phase change. A carbon release from thawed permafrost accounts for 0.6–41% of the cumulative carbon emission.

Chlorophyll a variation trends in marginal seas: assessing the impact of global warming and anthropogenic activities using time-series satellite data (1998–2020)

Analyzing 1998–2020 satellite data, this study finds global warming reduces offshore Chl a in open marginal seas, a trend extending nearshore. In contrast, Chl a in highly polluted enclosed seas remains unaffected by warming, dominated instead by nutrient inputs. Successful environmental policies reducing pollution may inadvertently accelerate the climate-driven Chl a decline, revealing a complex ecological trade-off.

AngleCam V2: Predicting leaf inclination angles across taxa from daytime and nighttime photos

To adapt to changing environmental conditions, plants can adjust their leaf angles. We developed AngleCam V2, an AI method that estimates leaf inclination angles from photos taken during day and night. Trained on thousands of images from about 200 species, it monitors daily changes in leaf angle, aligns with laser-scanning data, and detects systematic shifts under water limitation. AngleCam V2 provides an open-source tool for monitoring leaf angle dynamics over time, taxa, and environments.

Catalogue of strong nonlinear surprises in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in CMIP6

We present a first catalogue of abrupt changes/state transitions in ocean, sea-ice, and atmospheric variables in future Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 climate scenarios. We find many models that show Arctic sea-ice disappearance, North Atlantic winter mixed-layer collapse and/or subsequent transition of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation to a weak state. We find more abrupt changes/state transitions than in previous work at lower global warming levels.

Rapid Evaluation Framework for the CMIP7 Assessment Fast Track

The Rapid Evaluation Framework (REF) is a community-driven platform for benchmarking and performance assessment of Earth system models. Built upon four disparate community evaluation tools, the REF is designed to provide model-data comparisons for the Assessment Fast Track for the Seventh Phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The REF will be run at the Earth System Grid Federation to enable model devleopers and scientists to quickly identify model biases and performance issues.

Climate change may increase landslide frequency despite generally drier conditions in the Mediterranean area

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-3723-2026
10 August 2026

We present a framework linking projected rainfall with hydro-mechanical processes to assess landslide occurrences in a Mediterranean area, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Despite generally drier soils, landslide frequency rises because shifts in the timing and intensity of rainfall, altering antecedent soil moisture during triggering events. This counterintuitive result highlights the importance of rainfall patterns in slope stability and informs climate-risk assessment and adaptation planning.

An update to the expression of atmospheric refractivity for GNSS signals

Refinement of previous work on atmospheric refractivity, providing an expression as a function of air density, temperature, and composition. Studies with radio occultations in weather prediction show that the formulation of refractivity is critical with large data volumes. Compared to earlier work, this study incorporates updated fundamental measurements, accounts for variability in atmospheric composition, and extends the model to include hydrometeors.

New insights into decadal climate variability in the North Atlantic revealed by data-driven dynamical models

We use artificial intelligence to learn simple equations from historical climate data that describe how North Atlantic ocean temperature, air pressure and rainfall vary and influence each other over decades. Analysing the model's behaviour and equation terms, we find rainfall strongly feeds back on both the ocean and the atmosphere. These interactions are well captured by the models and allow rainfall to be predicted over the ocean, and nearby regions such as Europe over coming decades.