Moving beyond post hoc explainable artificial intelligence: a perspective paper on lessons learned from dynamical climate modeling Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-18-787-2025 14 February 2025 We draw from traditional climate modeling practices to make recommendations for machine-learning (ML)-driven climate science. Our intended audience is climate modelers who are relatively new to ML. We show how component-level understanding – obtained when scientists can link model behavior to parts within the overall model – should guide the development and evaluation of ML models. Better understanding yields a stronger basis for trust in the models. We highlight several examples to demonstrate. Read more
Causes of the exceptionally high number of fatalities in the Ahr valley, Germany, during the 2021 flood Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-581-2025 12 February 2025 In July 2021, flooding killed 190 people in Germany, 134 of them in the Ahr valley, making it the deadliest flood in recent German history. The flash flood was extreme in terms of water levels, flow velocities and flood extent, and early warning and evacuation were inadequate. Many died on the ground floor or in the street, with older and impaired individuals especially vulnerable. Clear warnings should urge people to seek safety rather than save belongings, and timely evacuations are essential. Read more
Turbulent heat flux dynamics along the Dotson and Getz ice-shelf fronts (Amundsen Sea, Antarctica) Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-21-359-2025 7 February 2025 Few observations exist in the Amundsen Sea. Consequently, studies rely on reanalysis (e.g., ERA5) to investigate how the atmosphere affects ocean variability (e.g., sea-ice formation and melt). We use data collected along ice shelves to show that cold, dry air blowing from Antarctica triggers large ocean heat loss, which is underestimated by ERA5. We then use an ocean model to show that this bias has an important impact on the ocean, with implications for sea-ice forecasts. Read more
Internal tides off the Amazon shelf in the western tropical Atlantic: analysis of SWOT Cal/Val mission data Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-21-325-2025 4 February 2025 This study focuses on the internal tides (ITs) off the Amazon shelf in the tropical Atlantic. It is based on 2 km horizontally gridded observations along the swaths of SWOT (Surface Water and Ocean Topography) track 20 during the calibration/validation phase (Cal/Val, 1 d orbit) from late March to early July 2023. We evaluate the amplitude of M2, N2, and S2 frequencies and use the M2 atlas as an internal tide correction model for SWOT observations. Internal tide amplitudes (models or atlases) are first derived by harmonic analysis of the SWOT sea level anomaly (SLA). The estimation is improved by performing a principal component analysis before the harmonic analysis. The results compare very well with the high-resolution empirical tide (HRET) internal tide model, the reference product for internal tide corrections in altimetry observations. The coherent mode 1 and mode 2 M2 can be distinguished in the internal tide model derived from SWOT, while the higher modes with their strong SLA signature are seen mostly in the incoherent part. In comparison to HRET, the correction of SWOT observations with SWOT-based atlases may be more relevant for this track. Read more
The alongshore tilt of mean dynamic topography and its implications for model validation and ocean monitoring Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-21-181-2025 31 January 2025 Mean dynamic topography (MDT) describes variations in the mean sea surface height above a reference surface called a geoid. We show that MDT predicted by a regional ocean model, including a significant tilt of several centimeters along the coast of Nova Scotia, is in good agreement with estimates based on sea level observations. We demonstrate that this alongshore tilt of MDT can provide a direct estimate of the average alongshore current and also of the area-integrated nearshore circulation. Read more
Assessment framework to predict sensitivity of marine calcifiers to ocean alkalinity enhancement – identification of biological thresholds and importance of precautionary principle Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-22-473-2025 31 January 2025 The environmental impacts of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) are unknown. Our synthesis, based on 68 collected studies with 84 unique species, shows that 35 % of species respond positively, 26 % respond negatively, and 39 % show a neutral response to alkalinity addition. Biological thresholds were found from 50 to 500 µmol kg−1 NaOH addition. A precautionary approach is warranted to avoid potential risks, while current regulatory framework needs improvements to assure safe biological limits. Read more
Blending 2D topography images from the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission into the altimeter constellation with the Level-3 multi-mission Data Unification and Altimeter Combination System (DUACS) Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-21-283-2025 31 January 2025 The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission delivers unprecedented swath-altimetry products. In this paper, we describe how we extended the Level-3 algorithms to handle SWOT’s unique swath-altimeter data. We also illustrate and discuss the benefits, relevance, and limitations of Level-3 swath-altimeter products for various research domains. Read more
Modelling current and future forest fire susceptibility in north-eastern Germany Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-383-2025 30 January 2025 In this study we applied a random forest machine learning algorithm to model current and future forest fire susceptibility (FFS) in north-eastern Germany using anthropogenic, climatic, topographic, soil, and vegetation variables. Model accuracy ranged between 69 % and 71 %, showing moderately high model reliability for predicting FFS. The model results underline the importance of anthropogenic and vegetation parameters. This study will support regional forest fire prevention and management. Read more
Present-day mass loss rates are a precursor for West Antarctic Ice Sheet collapse The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-19-283-2025 29 January 2025 In this study, we present an improved way of representing ice thickness change rates in an ice sheet model. We apply this method using two ice sheet models of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. We found that the two largest outlet glaciers on the Antarctic Ice Sheet, Thwaites Glacier and Pine Island Glacier, will collapse without further warming on a timescale of centuries. This would cause a sea level rise of about 1.2 m globally. Read more
Opinion: Understanding the impacts of agriculture and food systems on atmospheric chemistry is instrumental to achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-25-923-2025 28 January 2025 We discuss our current understanding of and knowledge gaps in how agriculture and food systems affect air quality and how agricultural emissions can be mitigated. We argue that scientists need to address these gaps, especially as the importance of fossil fuel emissions is fading. This will help guide food-system transformation in economically viable, socially inclusive, and environmentally responsible ways and is essential to help society achieve sustainable development. Read more
A methodology to compile multi-hazard interrelationships in a data-scarce setting: an application to the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-353-2025 27 January 2025 We present a methodology to compile single hazards and multi-hazard interrelationships in data-scarce urban settings, which we apply to the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal. Using blended sources, we collate evidence of 21 single natural hazard types and 83 multi-hazard interrelationships that could impact the Kathmandu Valley. We supplement these exemplars with multi-hazard scenarios developed by practitioner stakeholders, emphasising the need for inclusive disaster preparedness and response approaches. Read more
Spatial identification of regions exposed to multi-hazards at the pan-European level Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-287-2025 24 January 2025 This is the first study that uses spatial patterns (clusters/hotspots) and meta-analysis in order to identify the regions at a European level at risk of multi-hazards. The findings point out the socioeconomic dimension as a determining factor in the potential risk of multi-hazards. The outcome provides valuable input for the disaster risk management policy support and will assist national authorities on the implementation of a multi-hazard approach in national risk assessment preparation. Read more
Impacts from cascading multi-hazards using hypergraphs: a case study from the 2015 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-25-267-2025 22 January 2025 Natural hazards like earthquakes often trigger other disasters, such as landslides, creating complex chains of impacts. We developed a risk model using a mathematical approach called hypergraphs to efficiently measure the impact of interconnected hazards. We showed that it can predict broad patterns of damage to buildings and roads from the 2015 Nepal earthquake. The model’s efficiency allows it to generate multiple disaster scenarios, even at a national scale, to support preparedness plans. Read more
Efficiency metrics for ocean alkalinity enhancements under responsive and prescribed atmospheric pCO2 conditions Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-22-341-2025 20 January 2025 Marine CO2 removal (mCDR) is a promising technology for removing legacy emissions from the atmosphere. Its indirect nature makes it difficult to assess experimentally; instead one relies heavily on simulation. Many past papers have treated the atmosphere as non-responsive to the intervention studied. We show that even under these simplified assumptions, the increase in ocean CO2 inventory is equal to the equivalent quantity of direct CO2 removals occurring over time, in a realistic atmosphere. Read more
Ensemble estimates of global wetland methane emissions over 2000–2020 Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-22-305-2025 17 January 2025 This study assesses global methane emissions from wetlands between 2000 and 2020 using multiple models. We found that wetland emissions increased by 6–7 Tg CH4 yr-1 in the 2010s compared to the 2000s. Rising temperatures primarily drove this increase, while changes in precipitation and CO2 levels also played roles. Our findings highlight the importance of wetlands in the global methane budget and the need for continuous monitoring to understand their impact on climate change. Read more
Integrating wide-swath altimetry data into Level-4 multi-mission maps Ocean Science DOI 10.5194/os-21-63-2025 15 January 2025 The Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT) mission provides unprecedented swath altimetry data. This study examines SWOT’s impact on mapping systems, showing a moderate effect with the current nadir altimetry constellation and a stronger impact with a reduced one. Integrating SWOT with dynamic mapping techniques improves the resolution of satellite-derived products, offering promising solutions for studying and monitoring sea-level variability at finer scales. Read more
A topographically controlled tipping point for complete Greenland ice sheet melt The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-19-63-2025 13 January 2025 Anthropogenic warming is causing accelerated Greenland ice sheet melt. Here, we use a computer model to understand how prolonged warming and ice melt could threaten ice sheet stability. We find a threshold beyond which Greenland will lose more than 80 % of its ice over several thousand years, due to the interaction of surface and solid-Earth processes. Nearly complete Greenland ice sheet melt occurs when the ice margin disconnects from a region of high elevation in western Greenland. Read more
Particle fluxes by subtropical pelagic communities under ocean alkalinity enhancement Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-22-71-2025 10 January 2025 Ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) is a negative emission technology which may alter marine communities and the particle export they drive. Here, impacts of carbonate-based OAE on the flux and attenuation of sinking particles in an oligotrophic plankton community are presented. Whilst biological parameters remained unaffected, abiotic carbonate precipitation occurred. Among counteracting OAE’s efficiency, it influenced mineral ballasting and particle sinking velocities, requiring monitoring. Read more
Evaluating downscaled products with expected hydroclimatic co-variances Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-17-8665-2024 25 December 2024 We evaluate downscaled products by examining locally relevant co-variances during precipitation events. Common statistical downscaling techniques preserve expected co-variances during convective precipitation (a stationary phenomenon). However, they dampen future intensification of frontal precipitation (a non-stationary phenomenon) captured in global climate models and dynamical downscaling. Our study quantifies a ramification of the stationarity assumption underlying statistical downscaling. Read more
Warming effects of reduced sulfur emissions from shipping Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-24-13681-2024 24 December 2024 A 2020 regulation has reduced sulfur emissions from shipping by about 80 %, leading to a decrease in atmospheric aerosols that have a cooling effect primarily by affecting cloud properties and amounts. Our climate model simulations predict a global temperature increase of 0.04 K over the next 3 decades as a result, which could contribute to surpassing the Paris Agreement’s 1.5 °C target. Reduced aerosols may have also contributed to the recent temperature spikes. Read more
Surface buoyancy control of millennial-scale variations in the Atlantic meridional ocean circulation Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-20-2719-2024 23 December 2024 Using an Earth system model that can simulate Dansgaard–Oeschger-like events, we show that conditions under which millennial-scale climate variability occurs are related to the integrated surface buoyancy flux over the northern North Atlantic. This newly defined buoyancy measure explains why millennial-scale climate variability arising from abrupt changes in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation occurred for mid-glacial conditions but not for interglacial or full glacial conditions. Read more
Lidar measurements of noctilucent clouds at Río Grande, Tierra del Fuego, Argentina Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-24-14029-2024 17 December 2024 Noctilucent clouds (NLCs) are silvery clouds that can be viewed during twilight and indicate atmospheric conditions like temperature and water vapor in the upper mesosphere. High-resolution measurements from a remote sensing laser instrument provide NLC height, brightness, and occurrence rate since 2017. Most observations occur in the morning hours, likely caused by strong tidal winds, and NLC ice particles are thus transported from elsewhere to the observing location in the Southern Hemisphere. Read more
Channel concavity controls planform complexity of branching drainage networks Earth Surface Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esurf-12-1347-2024 10 December 2024 To explore the pattern formed by rivers as they crisscross the land, we developed a way to measure how these patterns vary, from straight to complex, winding paths. We discovered that a river’s degree of complexity depends on how the river slope changes downstream. Although this is strange (i.e., why would changes in slope affect twists of a river in map view?), we show that this dependency is almost inevitable and that the complexity could signify how arid the climate is or used to be. Read more
Opinion: Challenges and needs of tropospheric chemical mechanism development Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-24-13317-2024 9 December 2024 Chemical mechanisms describe the chemical processes in atmospheric models that are used to describe the changes in the atmospheric composition. Therefore, accurate chemical mechanisms are necessary to predict the evolution of air pollution and climate change. The article describes all steps that are needed to build chemical mechanisms and discusses the advances and needs of experimental and theoretical research activities needed to build reliable chemical mechanisms. Read more
Exploring drought hazard, vulnerability, and related impacts on agriculture in Brandenburg Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-4237-2024 5 December 2024 Droughts are a threat to agricultural crops, but different factors influence how much damage occurs. This is important to know to create meaningful risk maps and to evaluate adaptation options. We investigate the years 2013–2022 in Brandenburg, Germany, and find in particular the soil quality and meteorological drought in June to be statistically related to the observed damage. Measurement of crop health from satellites is also related to soil quality and not necessarily to anomalous yields. Read more
Weak liquid water path response in ship tracks Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-24-13269-2024 5 December 2024 Ship emissions can form artificially brightened clouds, known as ship tracks, and provide us with an opportunity to investigate how aerosols interact with clouds. Previous studies that used ship tracks suggest that clouds can experience large increases in the amount of water (LWP) from aerosols. Here, we show that there is a bias in previous research and that, when we account for this bias, the LWP response to aerosols is much weaker than previously reported. Read more
Modeling 2020 regulatory changes in international shipping emissions helps explain anomalous 2023 warming Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-15-1527-2024 4 December 2024 On 1 January 2020, international shipping vessels were required to substantially reduce the amount of particulate they emit to improve air quality. In this work we demonstrate how this regulatory change contributed to the anomalous warming observed in recent months using climate model simulations that include such a change. Future policies should also perhaps consider their impact on climate, and climate modelers should promptly include those changes in future modeling efforts. Read more
Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-15-1509-2024 2 December 2024 The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a gigantic natural orchestra playing with the temperature of Pacific waters and influencing air temperature and rainfall worldwide. Naturally, the “loudness” or amplitude of ENSO has effects on climate; however, consonance of its various tones, or phases of different ENSO oscillatory components, can exert causal effects on rainfall in some areas in China. In different regions, different aspects of ENSO dynamics can predict rainfall amounts. Read more
Microbial response to deliquescence of nitrate-rich soils in the hyperarid Atacama Desert Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-21-5305-2024 29 November 2024 We studied unique nitrate-rich soils in the hyperarid Atacama Desert that form brines at night under high relative humidity. Despite providing water for microorganisms, these soils exhibit extremely low microbial activity, indicating that the high nitrate levels inhibit microbial life. On the other hand, enriched organic matter indicates their potential preservation. This research helps to understand the limits of life in extreme environments and aids in the search for signs of life on Mars. Read more
Microbial strong organic-ligand production is tightly coupled to iron in hydrothermal plumes Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-21-5233-2024 29 November 2024 Hydrothermally derived iron can be transported kilometers away from deep-sea vents, representing a significant flux of vital micronutrients to the ocean. However, the mechanisms that support the stabilization of dissolved iron remain elusive. Using electrochemical, spectrometry, and genomic methods, we demonstrated that strong ligands exert an important control on iron in plumes, and high-affinity iron-binding siderophores were identified in several hydrothermal plume samples for the first time Read more
Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6 Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-21-5321-2024 28 November 2024 This study investigates present-day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better but also show many remaining biases. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with a nitrogen cycle is found, with only small differences between emission- and concentration-based simulations. Thus, we recommend using emission-driven simulations in CMIP7 by default and including the nitrogen cycle in all future carbon cycle models. Read more
Opinion: Beyond global means – novel space-based approaches to indirectly constrain the concentrations of and trends and variations in the tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH) Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-24-13001-2024 28 November 2024 Trace gases emitted to or formed within the atmosphere may be chemically or physically removed from the atmosphere. One trace gas, the hydroxyl radical (OH), is responsible for initiating the chemical removal of many trace gases, including some greenhouse gases. Despite its importance, scientists have not been able to adequately measure OH. In this opinion piece, we discuss promising new methods to indirectly constrain OH using satellite data of trace gases that control the abundance of OH. Read more
Eddy covariance with slow-response greenhouse gas analysers on tall towers: bridging atmospheric and ecosystem greenhouse gas networks Atmospheric Measurement Techniques DOI 10.5194/amt-17-6625-2024 27 November 2024 This study presents direct flux measurements in tall towers using existing slow-response analysers and adding 3D sonic anemometers. This way, we can significantly improve greenhouse gas monitoring with little extra instrumental effort. Slow-response analysers may be used here as the relevant frequency ranges depend on measuring height. Tall towers offer a large footprint, amplifying spatial coverage. The presented concept is a valuable bridge between atmospheric and ecosystem communities. Read more
Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024 26 November 2024 Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning. Read more
X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-21-5079-2024 25 November 2024 The movement of water, carbon, and energy from the Earth’s surface to the atmosphere, or flux, is an important process to understand because it impacts our lives. Here, we outline a method called FLUXCOM-X to estimate global water and CO2 fluxes based on direct measurements from sites around the world. We go on to demonstrate how these new estimates of net CO2 uptake/loss, gross CO2 uptake, total water evaporation, and transpiration from plants compare to previous and independent estimates. Read more
Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-18-5045-2024 18 November 2024 Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report. Read more
How to measure the efficiency of bioenergy crops compared to forestation Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-21-5005-2024 15 November 2024 Using a state-of-the-art land model, we find that bioenergy plants can store carbon more efficiently than forests over long periods in the soil, in geological reservoirs, or by substituting fossil-fuel-based energy. Planting forests is more suitable for reaching climate targets by 2050. The carbon removal potential depends also on local environmental conditions. These considerations have important implications for climate policy, spatial planning, nature conservation, and agriculture. Read more
An overview of outdoor low-cost gas-phase air quality sensor deployments: current efforts, trends, and limitations Atmospheric Measurement Techniques DOI 10.5194/amt-17-6425-2024 12 November 2024 We reviewed 60 sensor networks and 17 related efforts (sensor review papers and data accessibility projects) to better understand the landscape of stationary low-cost gas-phase sensor networks deployed in outdoor environments worldwide. Gaps in monitoring efforts include the availability of gas-phase measurements compared to particulate matter (PM) and geographic coverage gaps (the Global South, rural areas). We conclude with a summary of cross-network unification and quality control efforts. Read more
Testing floc settling velocity models in rivers and freshwater wetlands Earth Surface Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esurf-12-1267-2024 11 November 2024 Fine sediment grains in freshwater can cohere into faster-settling particles called flocs, but floc settling velocity theory has not been fully validated. Combining three data sources in novel ways in the Wax Lake Delta, we verified a semi-empirical model relying on turbulence and geochemical factors. For a physics-based model, we showed that the representative grain diameter within flocs relies on floc structure and that heterogeneous flow paths inside flocs increase floc settling velocity. Read more
Tropospheric links to uncertainty in stratospheric subseasonal predictions Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-24-12259-2024 6 November 2024 Strong variations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex can profoundly affect surface weather extremes; therefore, accurately predicting the stratosphere can improve surface weather forecasts. The research reveals how uncertainty in the stratosphere is linked to the troposphere. The findings suggest that refining models to better represent the identified sources and impact regions in the troposphere is likely to improve the prediction of the stratosphere and its surface impacts. Read more
A three-stage model pipeline predicting regional avalanche danger in Switzerland (RAvaFcast v1.0.0): a decision-support tool for operational avalanche forecasting Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-17-7569-2024 31 October 2024 By harnessing AI models, this work enables processing large amounts of data, including weather conditions, snowpack characteristics, and historical avalanche data, to predict human-like avalanche forecasts in Switzerland. Our proposed model can significantly assist avalanche forecasters in their decision-making process, thereby facilitating more efficient and accurate predictions crucial for ensuring safety in Switzerland’s avalanche-prone regions. Read more
Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5 Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-15-1353-2024 30 October 2024 Governments are targeting net-zero emissions later this century with the aim of limiting global warming in line with the Paris Agreement. However, few studies explore the long-term consequences of reaching net-zero emissions and the effects of a delay in reaching net-zero. We use the Australian Earth system model to examine climate evolution under net-zero emissions. We find substantial changes which differ regionally, including continued Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice reduction. Read more
Air quality modeling intercomparison and multiscale ensemble chain for Latin America Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-17-7467-2024 29 October 2024 Latin America (LAC) has some of the most populated urban areas in the world, with high levels of air pollution. Air quality management in LAC has been traditionally focused on surveillance and building emission inventories. This study performed the first intercomparison and model evaluation in LAC, with interesting and insightful findings for the region. A multiscale modeling ensemble chain was assembled as a first step towards an air quality forecasting system. Read more
Opinion: How will advances in aerosol science inform our understanding of the health impacts of outdoor particulate pollution? Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-24-11981-2024 28 October 2024 This opinion paper explores how advances in aerosol science inform our understanding of the health impacts of outdoor particulate pollution. We advocate for a shift in the way we target PM pollution, focusing on the most harmful anthropogenic emissions. We highlight key observations, modelling developments, and emission measurements needed to achieve this shift. Read more
Barchan swarm dynamics from a Two-Flank Agent-Based Model Earth Surface Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esurf-12-1205-2024 25 October 2024 Barchans are fast-moving sand dunes which form large populations (swarms) on Earth and Mars. We show that a small range of model parameters produces swarms in which dune size does not vary downwind – something that is observed in nature but not when using earlier models. We also show how the shape of dunes and the spatial patterns they form are affected by wind direction. This work furthers our understanding of the interplay between environmental drivers, dune interactions, and swarm properties. Read more
Seafloor sediment characterization improves estimates of organic carbon standing stocks: an example from the Eastern Shore Islands, Nova Scotia, Canada Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-21-4569-2024 25 October 2024 Quantifying how much organic carbon is stored in seafloor sediments is key to assessing how human activities can accelerate the process of carbon storage at the seabed, an important consideration for climate change. This study uses seafloor sediment maps to model organic carbon content. Carbon estimates were 12 times higher when assuming the absence of detailed sediment maps, demonstrating that high-resolution seafloor mapping is critically important for improved estimates of organic carbon. Read more
A global analysis of the fractal properties of clouds revealing anisotropy of turbulence across scales Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics DOI 10.5194/npg-31-497-2024 23 October 2024 The shapes of clouds viewed from space reflect vertical and horizontal motions in the atmosphere. We theorize that, globally, cloud perimeter complexity is related to the dimension of turbulence also governed by horizontal and vertical motions. We find agreement between theory and observations from various satellites and a numerical model and, remarkably, that the theory applies globally using only basic planetary physical parameters from the smallest scales of turbulence to the planetary scale. Read more
Energy transfer from internal solitary waves to turbulence via high-frequency internal waves: seismic observations in the northern South China Sea Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics DOI 10.5194/npg-31-477-2024 21 October 2024 With seismic data, we observed high-frequency internal waves (HIWs) with amplitudes of around 10 m. A shoaling thermocline and gentle slope suggest that HIWs result from fission. Remote sensing data support this. Strong shear caused Ri below 0.25 over 20–30 km, indicating instability. HIWs enhance mixing, averaging 10-4 m2s-1, revealing a new energy cascade from shoaling waves to turbulence, and enhancing our understanding of energy dissipation and mixing in the northern South China Sea. Read more
Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-15-1319-2024 18 October 2024 We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake. Read more
The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland, ERM-CH23 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024 17 October 2024 The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population. Read more