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Global hyper-resolution modeling of historical and future groundwater dynamics

We simulated how global groundwater levels have changed in the past and how they might change in the future. By improving model accuracy and using hyper-resolution data, we can now see where water tables are falling or rising across the world at 1km resolution. These results help communities and decision-makers plan for more sustainable water use in a changing climate.

Invited perspectives: Towards usable compound event research

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-26-4309-2026
7 September 2026

Impacts from extreme weather events may become more severe due to increased likelihood of compounding events under global warming, which challenge present day climate modelling and forecasting capacities. In this perspective we reflect on the usability of compound event research to bridge the gap between academic research and real-world applications.

Natural disturbances from bark beetle outbreaks and windthrow increasingly affect Europe's most mature and carbon-rich forests

Europe’s forests store vast amounts of carbon, but climate-driven disturbances are becoming more frequent. By combining satellite records with information on forest age and structure, we show that recent disturbances increasingly affect the oldest and most carbon-rich forests, particularly spruce forests in Central Europe. This emerging pattern puts long-accumulated carbon at risk and may reduce the long-term climate benefits provided by Europe’s forests.

The impact of stochastic sea ice perturbations on seasonal forecasts

Numerical weather forecasts of sea ice are unreliable, exhibiting an overly narrow range of plausible sea ice evolutions. Stochastic perturbations introduce randomness to the forecast in order to alleviate this by representing uncertainties in the representation of sea ice physics. We show that including such perturbations in a forecast model improves the reliability of sea ice forecasts, and furthermore results in improved seasonal forecasts of the northern European winter circulation.

Saturation effect of background temperature and aridity on vegetation phenological sensitivity to urban warming

Using satellite data from 293 Chinese cities, we tested how background climate shapes vegetation responses to urban warming. Urban heat advances spring growth 12 days and delays autumn aging nearly 10 days, yet responses saturate with extra warming. Dryness weakens and reverses growing‑season extension in dry inland zones. Temperature and moisture explain about 75 % spatial variation. Our results challenge the view that urban heat always lengthens growing seasons for climate‑adapted greening.

Dune aurora: survey from a citizen science database

Dune aurora is an intriguing phenomenon recently discovered thanks to citizen science. It is a dim, diffuse auroral form exhibiting wave-like stripes of brighter emission. We carry out the first statistical study of dune aurora, using 308 observation reports submitted to the Skywarden database by citizen scientists from Europe, North America, and Oceania. We find that dunes are an evening phenomenon, most often reported in March and October and associated with currents in the auroral atmosphere.

Water masses in the Atlantic Ocean: water mass ages and ventilation

We measured the age of Atlantic waters using man-made gases and a radioactive isotope. Age increases with depth: young surface waters are about 30 years old, deep Antarctic water reaches 100 years, and the oldest bottom water is roughly 120 years. The western Atlantic is younger and better ventilated than the east. These patterns help estimate deep-sea oxygen use and are key for climate models and marine ecosystems.

From regular to random: a unifying framework for step-pool spacing

The expected spacing of step-pool sequences has long been mired in debate, hampering stream restoration efforts. We define a continuum to evaluate the degree of regularity and randomness across step-pools from field observations, flume experiments, and numerical simulations and show that the full range is occupied without one formation mechanism dominating. Bounds related to channel hydraulics provide a way to track dynamic step spacing without assuming a mechanism.

Quantifying the influence of wood carbon fractions on tree- and forest ecosystem-scale carbon estimation in a temperate forest

Forests are critical in the global carbon cycle. Accurate estimates of tree and forest carbon stocks depend on assumptions surrounding wood chemistry, though this is often overlooked in forest carbons science. We show that species-specific wood chemistry values upward-revise tree-and forest carbon stock estimates, though certain wood chemistry assumptions – namely, the commonly-employed 50 % wood carbon fraction assumption – over-estimate carbon stocks in virtually all temperate trees and forests.

Editorial: Introducing a new article type: Limitations, Errors, Surprises, Shortcomings and Opportunities for New Science (LESSONS)

We explain a new article type that is being introduced in participating EGU publications. "LESSONS" articles describe the Limitations, Errors, Surprises, Shortcomings and Opportunities for New Science emerging from the scientific process. The publication of non-positive results and associated learnings aims to complete an unbiased record of the research effort, contributes to open and transparent science, allows the authors and others to learn, and may open opportunities for new science.

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