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1743 items found

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Mesoscale permeability variations estimated from natural airflows in the decorated Cosquer Cave (southeastern France)

Conservation of decorated caves is highly dependent on airflows and is correlated with rock formation permeability. We present the first conceptual model of flows around the Paleolithic decorated Cosquer coastal cave (southeastern France), quantify air permeability, and show how its variation affects water levels inside the cave. This study highlights that airflows may change in karst unsaturated zones in response to changes in the water cycle and may thus be affected by climate change.

Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024
6 September 2024

Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.

Ice viscosity governs hydraulic fracture that causes rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes

Due to surface melting, meltwater lakes seasonally form on the surface of glaciers. These lakes drive hydrofractures that rapidly transfer water to the base of ice sheets. This paper presents a computational method to capture the complicated hydrofracturing process. Our work reveals that viscous ice rheology has a great influence on the short-term propagation of fractures, enabling fast lake drainage, whereas thermal effects (frictional heating, conduction, and freezing) have little influence.

Optimizing the iodide-adduct chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) quantitative method for toluene oxidation intermediates: experimental insights into functional-group differences

We introduce detailed and improved quantitation and semi-quantitation methods of iodide-adduct time-of-flight chemical ionization mass spectrometry (I-CIMS) to measure toluene oxidation intermediates. We assess the experimental sensitivity of various functional group species and their binding energy with iodide ions in I-CIMS. A novel classification approach was introduced to significantly enhance the accuracy of semi-quantitative methods (improving R2 values from 0.52 to beyond 0.88).

Merging modelled and reported flood impacts in Europe in a combined flood event catalogue for 1950–2020

Long-term trends in flood losses are regulated by multiple factors, including climate variation, population and economic growth, land-use transitions, reservoir construction, and flood risk reduction measures. Here, we reconstruct the factual circumstances in which almost 15 000 potential riverine, coastal and compound floods in Europe occurred between 1950 and 2020. About 10 % of those events are reported to have caused significant socioeconomic impacts.

Late Quaternary glacial maxima in southern Patagonia: insights from the Lago Argentino glacier lobe

Investigating past glaciated regions is crucial for understanding how ice sheets responded to climate forcings and how they might respond in the future. We use two independent dating techniques to document the timing and extent of the Lago Argentino glacier lobe, a former lobe of the Patagonian Ice Sheet, during the late Quaternary. Our findings highlight feedbacks in the Earth’s system responsible for modulating glacier growth in the Southern Hemisphere prior to the global Last Glacial Maximum.

Cautionary remarks on the planetary boundary visualisation

Our paper examines the visual representation of the planetary boundary concept, which helps convey Earth’s capacity to sustain human life. We identify three issues: exaggerated impact sizes, confusing color patterns, and inaccessibility for colour-vision deficiency. These flaws can lead to overstating risks. We suggest improving these visual elements for more accurate and accessible information for decision-makers.

An increase in the spatial extent of European floods over the last 70 years

We use grid-based runoff from a hydrological model to identify large spatiotemporally connected flood events in Europe, assess extent trends over the last 70 years, and attribute the trends to different drivers. Our findings reveal a general increase in flood extent, with regional variations driven by diverse factors. The study not only enables a thorough examination of flood events across multiple basins but also highlights the potential challenges arising from changing flood extents.

Always on my mind: indications of post-traumatic stress disorder among those affected by the 2021 flood event in the Ahr valley, Germany

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-2837-2024
23 August 2024

Despite the visible flood damage, mental health is a growing concern. Yet, there is limited data in Germany on mental health impacts after floods. A survey in a heavily affected region revealed that 28 % of respondents showed signs of post-traumatic stress disorder 1 year later. Risk factors include gender, serious injury or illness due to flooding, and feeling left alone to cope with impacts. The study highlights the need for tailored mental health support for flood-affected populations.

Atmospheric H2 observations from the NOAA Cooperative Global Air Sampling Network

Hydrogen (H2) is a gas in trace amounts in the Earth’s atmosphere with indirect impacts on climate and air quality. Renewed interest in H2 as a low- or zero-carbon source of energy may lead to increased production, uses, and supply chain emissions. NOAA measurements of weekly air samples collected between 2009 and 2021 at over 50 sites in mostly remote locations are now available, and they complement other datasets to study the H2 global budget.

Absence of causality between seismic activity and global warming

It was recently suggested that global warming can be explained by the non-anthropogenic factor of seismic activity. If that is the case, it would have profound implications. We have assessed the validity of the claim by using a statistical technique that evaluates the existence of causal connections between variables, finding no evidence for any causal relationship between seismic activity and global warming.

Tipping point detection and early warnings in climate, ecological, and human systems

Tipping points are abrupt, rapid, and sometimes irreversible changes, and numerous approaches have been proposed to detect them in advance. Such approaches have been termed early warning signals and represent a set of methods for identifying changes in the underlying behaviour of a system across time or space that might indicate an approaching tipping point. Here, we review the literature to explore where, how, and which early warnings have been used in real-world case studies so far.

Sourcing and long-range transport of particulate organic matter in river bedload: Río Bermejo, Argentina

The transport of plant debris in rivers is an important part of the global carbon cycle and influences atmospheric carbon levels through time. We sampled plant debris at the bed of a lowland river and determined the sources as it is transported hundreds of kilometers. Plant debris can persist at the riverbed, but mechanical breakdown reduces its amount, and it is only a small fraction compared to the suspended load. This plant debris and transport patterns need further investigation globally.

ESD Ideas: Exoplanet, origins of life and biosphere researchers offer a perspective fundamental to ensuring humanity’s future

Scientists exploring the histories of planets and life are uniquely positioned to communicate a perspective that is fundamental to our survival: humanity is wholly embedded in Earth and its biosphere. There is no escaping our planet and its history. Only policies that build on this perspective will contribute to a flourishing future for humanity. We offer a few brief glimpses of this cosmic perspective and call on our colleagues to acknowledge the powerful stories emanating from their work.

Using historical temperature to constrain the climate sensitivity, the transient climate response, and aerosol-induced cooling

Using errors in climate model simulations this paper derives correction factors for the impacts of greenhouse gases and particles that bring these simulated temperature fields into agreement with an observational reconstruction of the Earth’s temperature. On average across eight models, a reduction by about one-half of the particle-induced cooling would be required, causing only 0.24 K of cooling since 1850–1899. The greenhouse gas warming simulated by several highly sensitive models would also reduce.

Continuous synchronization of the Greenland ice-core and U–Th timescales using probabilistic inversion

The first continuously measured transfer functions that quantify the age difference between the Greenland ice-core chronology 2005 (GICC05) and the U–Th timescale are presented. The transfer functions were generated using a novel probabilistic algorithm for the synchronization of proxy signals. The results greatly improve the accuracy and precision of previous synchronization estimates and reveal that the annual-layer counting error of GICC05 is less systematic than previously assumed.

Observation-inferred resilience loss of the Amazon rainforest possibly due to internal climate variability

We investigate whether the Amazon rainforest has lost substantial resilience since 1990. This assertion is based on trends in the observational record of vegetation density. We calculate the same metrics in a large number of climate model simulations and find that several models behave indistinguishably from the observations, suggesting that the observed trend could be caused by internal variability and that the cause of the ongoing rapid loss of Amazon rainforest is not mainly global warming.

Can corporate supply chain sustainability standards contribute to soil protection?

SOIL
DOI 10.5194/soil-10-505-2024
2 August 2024

We explore business efforts to ensure soil quality in their supply chains through the application of supplier sustainability standards. Through a content analysis of existing sustainability standards and companies’ sustainability reports, we found that soil sustainability is an important priority for food retailers. However, the standards currently applied tend to have a limited impact on soil protection due to a lack of specific criteria and thresholds.

Hydro-pedotransfer functions: a roadmap for future development

Pedotransfer functions (PTFs) are used to predict parameters of models describing the hydraulic properties of soils. The appropriateness of these predictions critically relies on the nature of the datasets for training the PTFs and the physical comprehensiveness of the models. This roadmap paper is addressed to PTF developers and users and critically reflects the utility and future of PTFs. To this end, we present a manifesto aiming at a paradigm shift in PTF research.

Linking geomorphological processes and wildlife microhabitat selection: nesting birds select refuges generated by permafrost degradation in the Arctic

In the Arctic tundra, climate change is transforming the landscape, and this may impact wildlife. We focus on three nesting bird species and the islets they select as refuges from their main predator, the Arctic fox. A geomorphological process, ice-wedge polygon degradation, was found to play a key role in creating these refuges. This process is likely to affect predator–prey dynamics in the Arctic tundra, highlighting the connections between nature’s physical and ecological systems.