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Rarefied particle motions on hillslopes – Part 1: Theory

Sediment particles skitter down steep hillslopes on Earth and Mars. Particles gain speed in going downhill but are slowed down and sometimes stop due to collisions with the rough surface. The likelihood of stopping depends on the energetics of speeding up (heating) versus slowing down (cooling). Statistical physics predicts that particle travel distances are described by a generalized Pareto distribution whose form varies with the Kirkby number – the ratio of heating to cooling.

SoilGrids 2.0: producing soil information for the globe with quantified spatial uncertainty

SOIL
DOI 10.5194/soil-7-217-2021
28 July 2021

This paper focuses on the production of global maps of soil properties with quantified spatial uncertainty, as implemented in the SoilGrids version 2.0 product using DSM practices and adapting them for global digital soil mapping with legacy data. The quantitative evaluation showed metrics in line with previous studies. The qualitative evaluation showed that coarse-scale patterns are well reproduced. The spatial uncertainty at global scale highlighted the need for more soil observations.

Mapping the aerodynamic roughness of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using ICESat-2: evaluation over the K-transect

We developed a method to estimate the aerodynamic properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using either UAV or ICESat-2 elevation data. We show that this new method is able to reproduce the important spatiotemporal variability in surface aerodynamic roughness, measured by the field observations. The new maps of surface roughness can be used in atmospheric models to improve simulations of surface turbulent heat fluxes and therefore surface energy and mass balance over rough ice worldwide.

A discontinuous Galerkin finite-element model for fast channelized lava flows v1.0

Lava flows present a natural hazard to communities around volcanoes and are usually slow-moving (< 1-5 cm/s). Lava flows during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawai’i, however, reached speeds as high as 11 m/s. To investigate these dynamics we develop a new lava flow computer model that incorporates a nonlinear expression for the fluid viscosity. Model results indicate that the lava flows at Site 8 of the eruption displayed shear thickening behavior due to the flow’s high bubble content.

Fracking bad language – hydraulic fracturing and earthquake risks

The potential for hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to induce seismicity is a topic of widespread interest. We find that terms used to describe induced seismicity are poorly defined and ambiguous and do not translate into everyday language. Such bad language has led to challenges in understanding, perceiving, and communicating risks around seismicity and fracking. Our findings and recommendations are relevant to other geoenergy topics that are potentially associated with induced seismicity.

Microbial and geo-archaeological records reveal the growth rate, origin and composition of desert rock surface communities

Biological rock crusts (BRCs) are common microbial-based assemblages covering rocks in drylands. BRCs play a crucial role in arid environments because of the limited activity of plants and soil. Nevertheless, BRC development rates have never been dated. Here we integrated archaeological, microbiological and geological methods to provide a first estimation of the growth rate of BRCs under natural conditions. This can serve as an affordable dating tool in archaeological sites in arid regions.

Faster decline and higher variability in the sea ice thickness of the marginal Arctic seas when accounting for dynamic snow cover

We re-estimate pan-Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) values by combining data from the Envisat and CryoSat-2 missions with data from a new, reanalysis-driven snow model. Because a decreasing amount of ice is being hidden below the waterline by the weight of overlying snow, we argue that SIT may be declining faster than previously calculated in some regions. Because the snow product varies from year to year, our new SIT calculations also display much more year-to-year variability.

Oxygen isotope exchange between water and carbon dioxide in soils is controlled by pH, nitrate and microbial biomass through links to carbonic anhydrase activity

SOIL
DOI 10.5194/soil-7-145-2021
14 July 2021

Understanding how the rate of oxygen isotope exchange between water and CO2 varies in soils is key for using the oxygen isotope composition of atmospheric CO2 as a tracer of biosphere CO2 fluxes at large scales. Across 44 diverse soils the rate of this exchange responded to pH, nitrate and microbial biomass, which are hypothesised to alter activity of the enzyme carbonic anhydrase in soils. Using these three soil traits, it is now possible to predict how this isotopic exchange varies spatially.

Interactions between deforestation, landscape rejuvenation, and shallow landslides in the North Tanganyika–Kivu rift region, Africa

We investigated how shallow landslide occurrence is impacted by deforestation and rifting in the North Tanganyika–Kivu rift region (Africa). We developed a new approach to calculate landslide erosion rates based on an inventory compiled in biased © Google Earth imagery. We find that deforestation increases landslide erosion by a factor of 2–8 and for a period of roughly 15 years. However, the exact impact of deforestation depends on the geomorphic context of the landscape (rejuvenated/relict).

FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration

This paper presents an update of the FaIR simple climate model, which can estimate the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions on the global climate. This update aims to significantly increase the structural simplicity of the model, making it more understandable and transparent. This simplicity allows it to be implemented in a wide range of environments, including Excel. We suggest that it could be used widely in academia, corporate research, and education.

VAHCOLI, a new concept for lidars: technical setup, science applications, and first measurements

We present a new concept for a cluster of lidars that allows us to measure time-resolved profiles of temperatures, winds, and aerosols in the entire middle atmosphere for the first time, also covering regional horizontal scales (“four-dimensional coverage”). Measurements are performed during day and night. The essential component is a newly developed laser with unprecedented performance. We present the first measurements. New observational capabilities in atmospheric physics are established.

Comment on “Exceptionally high heat flux needed to sustain the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream” by Smith-Johnsen et al. (2020)

The modelling of Smith-Johnson et al. (The Cryosphere, 14, 841–854, 2020) suggests that a very large heat flux of more than 10 times the usual geothermal heat flux is required to have initiated or to control the huge Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Our comparison with known hotspots, such as Iceland and Yellowstone, shows that such an exceptional heat flux would be unique in the world and is incompatible with known geological processes that can raise the heat flux.

Deoxygenation dynamics on the western Nile deep-sea fan during sapropel S1 from seasonal to millennial timescales

The Mediterranean Sea turned repeatedly into an oxygen-deprived basin during the geological past, as evidenced by distinct sediment layers called sapropels. We use here records of the last sapropel S1 retrieved in front of the Nile River to explore the relationships between riverine input and seawater oxygenation. We decipher the seasonal cycle of fluvial input and seawater chemistry as well as the decisive influence of primary productivity on deoxygenation at millennial timescales.

Invited perspectives: Landslide populations – can they be predicted?

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-1467-2021
1 July 2021

This is a perspective based on personal experience on whether a large number of landslides caused by a single trigger (e.g. an earthquake, an intense rainfall, a rapid snowmelt event) or by multiple triggers in a period can be predicted, in space and time, considering the consequences of slope failures.

Smoke-charged vortices in the stratosphere generated by wildfires and their behaviour in both hemispheres: comparing Australia 2020 to Canada 2017

Following the 2020 Australian fires, it was recently discovered that stratospheric wildfire smoke plumes self-organize as anticyclonic vortices that persist for months and rise by 10 km due to the radiative heating from the absorbing smoke. In this study, we show that smoke-charged vortices previously occurred in the aftermath of the 2017 Canadian fires. We use meteorological analysis to characterize this new object in geophysical fluid dynamics, which likely impacts radiation and climate.

First assessment of the earth heat inventory within CMIP5 historical simulations

The current radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is increasing the heat stored in the oceans, atmosphere, continental subsurface and cryosphere, with consequences for societies and ecosystems (e.g. sea level rise). We performed the first assessment of the ability of global climate models to represent such heat storage in the climate subsystems. Models are able to reproduce the observed atmosphere heat content, with biases in the simulation of heat content in the rest of components.

Captive Aerosol Growth and Evolution (CAGE) chamber system to investigate particle growth due to secondary aerosol formation

The newly developed portable 1 m3 CAGE chamber systems were characterized using data acquired during a 2-month field study in 2016 in a forested area north of Houston, TX, USA. Concentrations of several oxidant and organic compounds measured in the chamber were found to closely agree with those calculated with a zero-dimensional model. By tracking the modes of injected monodisperse particles, a pattern change was observed for hourly averaged growth rates between late summer and early fall.

Assimilation of DAWN Doppler wind lidar data during the 2017 Convective Processes Experiment (CPEX): impact on precipitation and flow structure

The assimilation of airborne-based three-dimensional winds into a mesoscale weather forecast model resulted in better agreement with airborne radar-derived precipitation 3-D structure at later model time steps. More importantly, there was also a discernible impact on the resultant wind and moisture structure, in accord with independent analysis of the wind structure and external satellite observations.

Glacier detachments and rock-ice avalanches in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan (1973–2019)

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-1409-2021
24 June 2021

A cluster of 13 large mass flow events including five detachments of entire valley glaciers was observed in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan, in 1973–2019. The local clustering provides additional understanding of the influence of temperature, seismic activity, and geology. Most events occurred in summer of years with mean annual air temperatures higher than the past 46-year trend. The glaciers rest on weak bedrock and are rather short, making them sensitive to friction loss due to meltwater.

Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options

We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.

Atmospheric extremes caused high oceanward sea surface slope triggering the biggest calving event in more than 50 years at the Amery Ice Shelf

The unexpected September 2019 calving event from the Amery Ice Shelf, the largest since 1963 and which occurred almost a decade earlier than expected, was triggered by atmospheric extremes. Explosive twin polar cyclones provided a deterministic role in this event by creating oceanward sea surface slope triggering the calving. The observed record-anomalous atmospheric conditions were promoted by blocking ridges and Antarctic-wide anomalous poleward transport of heat and moisture.

Heterogeneous interactions between SO2 and organic peroxides in submicron aerosol

Discrepancies between atmospheric modeling and field observations, especially in highly polluted cities, have highlighted the lack of understanding of sulfate formation mechanisms and kinetics. Here, we directly quantify the reactive uptake coefficient of SO2 onto organic peroxides and study the important governing factors. The SO2 uptake rate was observed to depend on RH, peroxide amount and reactivity, pH, and ionic strength, which provides a framework to better predict sulfate formation.

On the phenomenon of the blue sun

This study investigates the physical processes leading to the rare phenomenon of the sun appearing blue or green. The phenomenon is caused by anomalous scattering by, e.g., volcanic or forest fire aerosols. Unlike most other studies, our study includes a full treatment of the effect of Rayleigh scattering on the colour of the sun. We investigate different factors and revisit a historic example, i.e. the Canadian forest fires in 1950, that led to blue sun events in different European countries.

Effects of Earth system feedbacks on the potential mitigation of large-scale tropical forest restoration

Estimates of large-scale tree planting and forest restoration as a carbon sequestration tool typically miss a crucial aspect: the Earth system response to the increased land carbon sink from new vegetation. We assess the impact of tropical forest restoration using an Earth system model under a scenario that limits warming to 2 °C. Almost two-thirds of the carbon impact of forest restoration is offset by negative carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting a more modest benefit than in previous studies.

Revision of the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmosphere Watch (WMO/GAW) CO2 calibration scale

We have recently revised the carbon dioxide calibration scale used by numerous laboratories that measure atmospheric CO2. The revision follows from an improved understanding of the manometric method used to determine the absolute amount of CO2 in an atmospheric air sample. The new scale is 0.18 μmol mol−1 (ppm) greater than the previous scale at 400 ppm CO2. While this difference is small in relative terms (0.045 %), it is significant in terms of atmospheric monitoring.

Observing the timescales of aerosol–cloud interactions in snapshot satellite images

Cloud responses to aerosol are time-sensitive, but this development is rarely observed. This study uses isolated aerosol perturbations from ships to measure this development and shows that macrophysical (width, cloud fraction, detectability) and microphysical (droplet number) properties of ship tracks vary strongly with time since emission, background cloud and meteorological state. This temporal development should be considered when constraining aerosol–cloud interactions with observations.

On the attribution of industrial-era glacier mass loss to anthropogenic climate change

The worldwide retreat of mountain glaciers and consequent loss of ice mass is one of the most obvious signs of a changing climate and has significant implications for the hydrology and natural hazards in mountain landscapes. Consistent with our understanding of the human role in temperature change, we demonstrate that the central estimate of the size of the human-caused mass loss is essentially 100 % of the observed loss. This assessment resolves some important inconsistencies in the literature.

Development of smart boulders to monitor mass movements via the Internet of Things: a pilot study in Nepal

We use long-range smart sensors connected to a network based on the Internet of Things to explore the possibility of detecting hazardous boulder movements in real time. Prior to the 2019 monsoon season we inserted the devices in 23 boulders spread over debris flow channels and a landslide in northeastern Nepal. The data obtained in this pilot study show the potential of this technology to be used in remote hazard-prone areas in future early warning systems.

Robust increase of Indian monsoon rainfall and its variability under future warming in CMIP6 models

All state-of-the-art global climate models that contributed to the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) show a robust increase in Indian summer monsoon rainfall that is even stronger than in the previous intercomparison (CMIP5). Furthermore, they show an increase in the year-to-year variability of this seasonal rainfall that crucially influences the livelihood of more than 1 billion people in India.

Uncertainties in the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) emission inventory of greenhouse gases

We conducted an extensive analysis of the structural uncertainty of the Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) emission inventory of greenhouse gases, which adds a much needed reliability dimension to the accuracy of the emission estimates. The study undertakes in-depth analyses of the implication of aggregating emissions from different sources and/or countries on the accuracy. Results are presented for all emissions sectors according to IPCC definitions.

Snapshots of mean ocean temperature over the last 700 000 years using noble gases in the EPICA Dome C ice core

Using the temperature-dependent solubility of noble gases in ocean water, we reconstruct global mean ocean temperature (MOT) over the last 700 kyr using noble gas ratios in air enclosed in polar ice cores. Our record shows that glacial MOT was about 3 °C cooler compared to the Holocene. Interglacials before 450 kyr ago were characterized by about 1.5 °C lower MOT than the Holocene. In addition, some interglacials show transient maxima in ocean temperature related to changes in ocean circulation.

Pervasive diffusion of climate signals recorded in ice-vein ionic impurities

Current theory predicts climate signals in the vein chemistry of ice cores to migrate, hampering their dating. I show that the Gibbs–Thomson effect, which has been overlooked, causes fast diffusion that prevents signals from surviving into deep ice. Hence the deep climatic peaks in Antarctic and Greenlandic ice must be due to impurities in the ice matrix (outside veins) and safe from migration. These findings reset our understanding of postdepositional changes of ice-core climate signals.

FES2014 global ocean tide atlas: design and performance

Since the mid-1990s, a series of FES (finite element solution) global ocean tidal atlases has been produced with the primary objective to provide altimetry missions with a tidal de-aliasing correction. We describe the underlying hydrodynamic/data assimilation design and accuracy assessments for the FES2014 release. The FES2014 atlas shows overall improved performance and has consequently been integrated in satellite altimetry and gravimetric data processing and adopted in ITRF standards.

A Dark Target research aerosol algorithm for MODIS observations over eastern China: increasing coverage while maintaining accuracy at high aerosol loading

Due to fast industrialization and development, China has been experiencing haze pollution episodes with both high frequencies and severity over the last 3 decades. This study improves the accuracy and data coverage of measured aerosol from satellites, which help quantify, characterize, and understand the impact of the haze phenomena over the entire East Asia region.

Introducing hydrometeor orientation into all-sky microwave and submillimeter assimilation

Oriented nonspherical ice particles induce polarization that is ignored when cloud-sensitive satellite observations are used in numerical weather prediction systems. We present a simple approach for approximating particle orientation, requiring minor adaption of software and no additional calculation burden. With this approach, the system realistically simulates the observed polarization patterns, increasing the physical consistency between instruments with different polarizations.

Captured cirrus ice particles in high definition

The cryo-electron microscopy images and analysis in this paper result from the first balloon-borne capture, preservation, and high-resolution imaging of ice particles from cirrus clouds. The images show cirrus particle complexity in unprecedented detail, revealing unexpected morphology, a mixture of surface roughness scales and patterns, embedded aerosols, and a large variety of habits within a single cloud. The results should inform ongoing efforts to refine modeling of cirrus radiative impact.

High-frequency monitoring of anomalous methane point sources with multispectral Sentinel-2 satellite observations

Satellites can detect methane emissions by measuring sunlight reflected from the Earth’s surface and atmosphere. Here we show that the European Space Agency’s Sentinel-2 twin satellites can be used to monitor anomalously large methane point sources around the world, with global coverage every 2–5 days and 20 m spatial resolution. We demonstrate this previously unreported capability through high-frequency Sentinel-2 monitoring of two strong methane point sources in Algeria and Turkmenistan.

JlBox v1.1: a Julia-based multi-phase atmospheric chemistry box model

As our knowledge and understanding of atmospheric aerosol particle evolution and impact grows, designing community mechanistic models requires an ability to capture increasing chemical, physical and therefore numerical complexity. As the landscape of computing software and hardware evolves, it is important to profile the usefulness of emerging platforms in tackling this complexity. With this in mind we present JlBox v1.1, written in Julia.

Sudden large-volume detachments of low-angle mountain glaciers – more frequent than thought?

Hardly recognized so far, giant catastrophic detachments of glaciers are a rare but great potential for loss of lives and massive damage in mountain regions. Several of the events compiled in our study involve volumes (up to 100 million m3 and more), avalanche speeds (up to 300 km/h), and reaches (tens of kilometres) that are hard to imagine. We show that current climate change is able to enhance associated hazards. For the first time, we elaborate a set of factors that could cause these events.

African easterly waves in an idealized general circulation model: instability and wave packet diagnostics

Using a simple general circulation model, we examine the structure of waves in the mid-tropospheric jet over North Africa. We show that waves occur in near-stationary groups or wave packets. As they are not swept out of the jet, this may provide the opportunity for the packets to amplify via feedback from other energy sources like rain-producing cloud complexes and mineral dust that are known to operate here. Our results address the criticism that the easterly jet is too short to sustain waves.

Medusa–Aqua system: simultaneous measurement and evaluation of novel potential halogenated transient tracers HCFCs, HFCs, and PFCs in the ocean

Observations of transient tracer distribution provide essential information on ocean ventilation. The use of several commonly used transient traces is limited as their atmospheric mole fractions do not monotonically change. Here we explore new potential oceanic transient tracers with an analytical system that simultaneously measures a large range of compounds. Combined with the known atmospheric history and seawater solubility, we discuss the utility of selected HCFCs, HFCs, and PFCs as tracers.

Summary and synthesis of Changing Cold Regions Network (CCRN) research in the interior of western Canada – Part 2: Future change in cryosphere, vegetation, and hydrology

This article examines future changes in land cover and hydrological cycling across the interior of western Canada under climate conditions projected for the 21st century. Key insights into the mechanisms and interactions of Earth system and hydrological process responses are presented, and this understanding is used together with model application to provide a synthesis of future change. This has allowed more scientifically informed projections than have hitherto been available.

Arctic Ocean acidification over the 21st century co-driven by anthropogenic carbon increases and freshening in the CMIP6 model ensemble

The uptake of carbon, emitted as a result of human activities, results in ocean acidification. We analyse 21st-century projections of acidification in the Arctic Ocean, a region of particular vulnerability, using the latest generation of Earth system models. In this new generation of models there is a large decrease in the uncertainty associated with projections of Arctic Ocean acidification, with freshening playing a greater role in driving acidification than previously simulated.

Airborne measurements of oxygen concentration from the surface to the lower stratosphere and pole to pole

We describe methods used to make high-precision global-scale airborne measurements of atmospheric oxygen concentrations over a period of 20 years in order to study the global carbon cycle. Our techniques include an in situ vacuum ultraviolet absorption instrument and a pressure- and flow-controlled, cryogenically dried, glass flask sampler. We have deployed these instruments in 15 airborne research campaigns spanning from the Earth’s surface to the lower stratosphere and from pole to pole.

Evaluating stratospheric ozone and water vapour changes in CMIP6 models from 1850 to 2100

Stratospheric ozone and water vapour are key components of the Earth system; changes to both have important impacts on global and regional climate. We evaluate changes to these species from 1850 to 2100 in the new generation of CMIP6 models. There is good agreement between the multi-model mean and observations, although there is substantial variation between the individual models. The future evolution of both ozone and water vapour is strongly dependent on the assumed future emissions scenario.

Diverging land-use projections cause large variability in their impacts on ecosystems and related indicators for ecosystem services

Many projections of future land-use/-cover exist. We evaluate a number of these and determine the variability they cause in ecosystems and their services. We found that projections differ a lot in regional patterns, with some patterns being at least questionable in a historical context. Across ecosystem service indicators, resulting variability until 2040 was highest in crop production. Results emphasize that such variability should be acknowledged in assessments of future ecosystem provisions.

How Rossby wave breaking modulates the water cycle in the North Atlantic trade wind region

The interaction of clouds in the trade wind region with the atmospheric flow is complex and at the heart of uncertainties associated with climate projections. In this study, a natural tracer of atmospheric circulation is used to establish a link between air originating from dry regions of the midlatitudes and the occurrence of specific cloud patterns. Two pathways involving transport within midlatitude weather systems are identified, by which air is brought into the trades within 5–10 d.

A process-based evaluation of the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research Model (ICAR) 1.0.1

This study conducts an in-depth process-based evaluation of the Intermediate Complexity Atmospheric Research (ICAR) model, employing idealized simulations to increase the understanding of the model and develop recommendations to maximize the probability that its results are correct for the right reasons. The results show that when model skill is evaluated from statistical metrics based on comparisons to surface observations only, such an analysis may not reflect the skill of the model in capturing atmospheric processes like gravity waves and cloud formation.

Similar importance of edaphic and climatic factors for controlling soil organic carbon stocks of the world

Soil organic carbon (SOC) accounts for two-thirds of terrestrial carbon. Yet, the role of soil physicochemical properties in regulating SOC stocks is unclear, inhibiting reliable SOC predictions under land use and climatic changes. Using legacy observations from 141 584 soil profiles worldwide, we disentangle the effects of biotic, climatic and edaphic factors (a total of 31 variables) on the global spatial distribution of SOC stocks in four sequential soil layers down to 2 m.

The behavior of high-CAPE (convective available potential energy) summer convection in large-domain large-eddy simulations with ICON

Current state-of-the-art regional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models employ kilometer-scale horizontal grid resolutions, thereby simulating convection within the grey zone. Increasing resolution leads to resolving the 3D motion field and has been shown to improve the representation of clouds and precipitation. Using a hectometer-scale model in forecasting mode on a large domain therefore offers a chance to study processes that require the simulation of the 3D motion field at small horizontal scales.