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Geoscientific Model Development

HyLands 1.0: a hybrid landscape evolution model to simulate the impact of landslides and landslide-derived sediment on landscape evolution

Landslides shape the Earth’s surface and are a dominant source of terrestrial sediment. Rivers, then, act as conveyor belts evacuating landslide-produced sediment. Understanding the interaction among rivers and landslides is important to predict the Earth’s surface response to past and future environmental changes and for mitigating natural hazards. We develop HyLands, a new numerical model that provides a toolbox to explore how landslides and rivers interact over several timescales.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Quantifying burning efficiency in megacities using the NO2/CO ratio fromthe Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI)

Rapid urbanization has increased the consumption of fossil fuel, contributing the degradation of urban air quality. Burning efficiency is a major factor determining the impact of fuel burning on the environment. We quantify the burning efficiency of fossil fuel use over six megacities using satellite remote sensing data. City governance can use these results to understand air pollution scenarios and to formulate effective air pollution control strategies.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Fire Weather Index: the skill provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble prediction system

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-2365-2020
22 September 2020

Forecasting of daily fire weather indices driven by the ECMWF ensemble prediction system is shown to have a good skill up to 10 d ahead in predicting flammable conditions in most regions of the world. The availability of these forecasts through the Copernicus Emergency Management Service can extend early warnings by up to 1–2 weeks, allowing for greater proactive coordination of resource-sharing and mobilization within and across countries.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

The value of remote marine aerosol measurements for constraining radiative forcing uncertainty

The amount of energy reflected back into space because of man-made particles is highly uncertain. Processes related to naturally occurring particles cause most of the uncertainty, but these processes are poorly constrained by present-day measurements. We show that measurements over the Southern Ocean, far from pollution sources, efficiently reduce climate model uncertainties. Our results pave the way to designing experiments and measurement campaigns that reduce this uncertainty even further.

Climate of the Past

Lessons from a high-CO2 world: an ocean view from ∼3 million years ago

We examine the sea-surface temperature response to an interval of climate ~ 3.2 million years ago, when CO ₂ concentrations were similar to today and the near future. Our geological data and climate models show that global mean sea-surface temperatures were 2.3 to 3.2 ºC warmer than pre-industrial climate, that the mid-latitudes and high latitudes warmed more than the tropics, and that the warming was particularly enhanced in the North Atlantic Ocean.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

A semi-empirical potential energy surface and line list for H216O extending into the near-ultraviolet

Water vapour has a complex spectrum and absorbs from the microwave to the near-UV where it dissociates. There is limited knowledge of the absorption features in the near-UV, and there is a large disagreement for the available models and experiments. We created a new ab initio model that is in good agreement with observation at 363 nm. At lower wavelengths, our calculations suggest that the latest experiments overestimate absorption. This has implications for trace gas retrievals in the near-UV.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Revisiting global satellite observations of stratospheric cirrus clouds

Cirrus clouds appearing in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere have important impacts on the radiation budget and climate change. We revisited global stratospheric cirrus clouds with CALIPSO and for the first time with MIPAS satellite observations. Stratospheric cirrus clouds related to deep convection are frequently detected in the tropics. At middle latitudes, MIPAS detects more than twice as many stratospheric cirrus clouds due to higher detection sensitivity.

Earth System Dynamics

Groundwater storage dynamics in the world’s large aquifer systems fromGRACE: uncertainty and role of extreme precipitation

Recent assessments of the sustainability of global groundwater resources using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites assume that the underlying trends are linear. Here, we assess recent changes in groundwater storage (ΔGWS) in the world’s large aquifer systems using an ensemble of GRACE datasets and show that trends are mostly non-linear. Non-linearity in ΔGWS derives, in part, from the episodic nature of groundwater replenishment associated with extreme precipitation.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Inconsistencies between chemistry–climate models and observed lower stratospheric ozone trends since 1998

Recent lower stratospheric ozone decreases remain unexplained. We show that chemistry–climate models are not generally able to reproduce mid-latitude ozone and water vapour changes. Our analysis of observations provides evidence that climate change may be responsible for the ozone trends. While model projections suggest that extratropical ozone should recover by 2100, our study raises questions about their efficacy in simulating lower stratospheric changes in this region.

Climate of the Past

Climatic information archived in ice cores: impact of intermittency and diffusion on the recorded isotopic signal in Antarctica

The isotopic composition in ice cores from Antarctica is usually interpreted as a temperature proxy. Using a forward model, we show how different the signal in ice cores and the actual climatic signal are. Precipitation intermittency and diffusion do indeed affect the archived signal, leading to the reshuffling of the signal which limits the ability to reconstruct high-resolution climatic variations with ice cores.

Climate of the Past

Bipolar volcanic synchronization of abrupt climate change in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period

We identify signatures of large bipolar volcanic eruptions in Greenland and Antarctic ice cores during the last glacial period, which allows for a precise temporal alignment of the ice cores. Thereby the exact timing of unexplained, abrupt climatic changes occurring during the last glacial period can be determined in a global context. The study thus provides a step towards a full understanding of elements of the climate system that may also play an important role in the future.

Earth System Dynamics

ESD Ideas: Global climate response scenarios for IPCC assessments

Policy making on climate change routinely employs socioeconomic scenarios to sample the uncertainty in future forcing of the climate system, but the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has not employed similar discrete scenarios to sample the uncertainty in the global climate response. Here, we argue that to enable risk assessments and development of robust policies this gap should be addressed, and we propose a simple methodology.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Effective radiative forcing and adjustments in CMIP6 models

The spread in effective radiative forcing for both CO ₂ and aerosols is narrower in the latest CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) generation than in CMIP5. For the case of CO ₂ it is likely that model radiation parameterisations have improved. Tropospheric and stratospheric radiative adjustments to the forcing behave differently for different forcing agents, and there is still significant diversity in how clouds respond to forcings, particularly for total anthropogenic forcing.

Earth System Dynamics

Emergent constraints on transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) from historical warming in CMIP5 and CMIP6 models

One of the key questions in climate science is how much more heating we will get for a given rise in carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. A new generation of models showed that this might be more than previously expected. Comparing the new models to observed temperature rise since 1970, we show that there is no need to revise the estimate upwards. Air pollution, whose effect on climate warming is poorly understood, stopped rising, allowing us to better constrain the greenhouse gas signal.

Geoscience Communication

Open weather and climate science in the digital era

At the 14th IEEE International eScience Conference domain specialists and data and computer scientists discussed the road towards open weather and climate science. Open science offers manifold opportunities but goes beyond sharing code and data. Besides domain-specific technical challenges, we observed that the main challenges are non-technical and impact the system of science as a whole.

Atmospheric Measurement Techniques

A global analysis of climate-relevant aerosol properties retrieved from the network of Global AtmosphereWatch (GAW) near-surface observatories

The paper establishes the fiducial reference of the GAW aerosol network providing the fully characterized value chain to the provision of four climate-relevant aerosol properties from ground-based sites. Data from almost 90 stations worldwide are reported for a reference year, 2017, providing a unique and very robust view of the variability of these variables worldwide. Current gaps in the GAW network are analysed and requirements for the Global Climate Monitoring System are proposed.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Anthropogenic climate change and glacier lake outburst flood risk: local and global drivers and responsibilities for the case of lake Palcacocha, Peru

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-2175-2020
27 August 2020

There is increasing interest and need to analyze the contribution of anthropogenic climate change to negative impacts of climate change. We study the case of glacial lake Palcacocha in Peru, which poses a significant flood risk to the city of Huaraz. We found that greenhouse gas emissions; strong urbanization processes without appropriate land use planning; and social, cultural, political, and institutional factors all contribute to the existing flood risk.

Geoscientific Model Development

The shared socio-economic pathway (SSP) greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions to 2500

This study provides the future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations under the new set of so-called SSP scenarios (the successors of the IPCC SRES and previous representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios). The projected CO ₂ concentrations range from 350 ppm for low-emission scenarios by 2150 to more than 2000 ppm under the high-emission scenarios. We also provide concentrations, latitudinal gradients, and seasonality for most of the other 42 considered GHGs.

Biogeosciences

Rainfall intensification increases the contribution of rewetting pulses tosoil heterotrophic respiration

Carbon dioxide is produced by soil microbes through respiration, which is particularly fast when soils are moistened by rain. Will respiration increase with future more intense rains and longer dry spells? With a mathematical model, we show that wetter conditions increase respiration. In contrast, if rainfall totals stay the same, but rain comes all at once after long dry spells, the average respiration will not change, but the contribution of the respiration bursts after rain will increase.

Atmospheric Measurement Techniques

An overview of and issues with sky radiometer technology and SKYNET

This paper overviews the progress in sky radiometer technology and the development of the network called SKYNET. It is found that the technology has produced useful on-site calibration methods, retrieval algorithms, and data analyses from sky radiometer observations of aerosol, cloud, water vapor, and ozone. The paper also discusses current issues of SKYNET to provide better information for the community.

Biogeosciences

CloudRoots: integration of advanced instrumental techniques and processmodelling of sub-hourly and sub-kilometre land–atmosphere interactions

The CloudRoots field experiment has obtained an open comprehensive observational data set that includes soil, plant, and atmospheric variables to investigate the interactions between a heterogeneous land surface and its overlying atmospheric boundary layer, including the rapid perturbations of clouds in evapotranspiration. Our findings demonstrate that in order to understand and represent diurnal variability, we need to measure and model processes from the leaf to the landscape scales.

Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems

A monitoring system for spatiotemporal electrical self-potential measurements in cryospheric environments

Geoscientific Instrumentation, Methods and Data Systems
DOI 10.5194/gi-9-317-2020
20 August 2020

In times of global warming, permafrost is starting to degrade at alarming rates, requiring new and improved characterization approaches. We describe the design and test installation, as well as detailed data quality assessment, of a monitoring system used to capture natural electrical potentials in the subsurface. These self-potential signals are of great interest for the noninvasive investigation of water flow in the non-frozen or partially frozen subsurface.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Revisiting the global hydrological cycle: is it intensifying?

We overview and retrieve a great amount of global hydroclimatic data sets. We improve the quantification of the global hydrological cycle, its variability and its uncertainties through the surge of newly available data sets. We test (but do not confirm) established climatological hypotheses, according to which the hydrological cycle should be intensifying due to global warming. We outline a stochastic view of hydroclimate, which provides a reliable means of dealing with its variability.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Molecular understanding of new-particle formation from α-pinene between-50 and +25 ∘C

Highly oxygenated organic compounds (HOMs) have been identified as key vapors involved in atmospheric new-particle formation (NPF). The molecular distribution, HOM yield, and NPF from α-pinene oxidation experiments were measured at the CLOUD chamber over a wide tropospheric-temperature range. This study shows on a molecular scale that despite the sharp reduction in HOM yield at lower temperatures, the reduced volatility counteracts this effect and leads to an overall increase in the NPF rate.

Earth System Dynamics

Relating climate sensitivity indices to projection uncertainty

Here, we assess the degree to which the idealized responses to transient forcing increase and step change forcing increase relate to warming under future scenarios. We find a possible explanation for the poor performance of transient metrics (relative to equilibrium response) as a metric of high-emission future warming in terms of their sensitivity to non-equilibrated initial conditions, and propose alternative metrics which better describe warming under high mitigation scenarios.

Earth System Dynamics

Incremental improvements of 2030 targets insufficient to achieve the Paris Agreement goals

Current global mitigation ambition in the National Determined Contributions (NDCs) up to 2030 is insufficient to achieve the 1.5 °C long-term temperature limit. As governments are preparing new and updated NDCs for 2020, we address the question of what level of collective ambition is pivotal regarding the Paris Agreement goals. We provide estimates for global mean temperature increase by 2100 for different incremental NDC update scenarios and illustrate climate impacts under those scenarios.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Remote sensing of methane leakage from natural gas and petroleum systems revisited

The switch from the use of coal to natural gas or oil for energy generation potentially reduces the impact on global warming due to lower CO ₂ emissions with the same energy content. However, this climate benefit is offset by fugitive methane emissions during the production and distribution process. We quantify emission and leakage rates relative to production for several large production regions based on satellite observations to evaluate the climate footprint of the gas and oil industry.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Survival of the Qaidam mega-lake system under mid-Pliocene climates and itsrestoration under future climates

During the Pliocene, the Qaidam Basin on the Tibetan Plateau contained a mega-lake system. During the Pleistocene, it disappeared almost completely. Today, hyperarid climates prevail in the low-altitude parts of the basin. This study reveals that today’s mean water balance of the Qaidam Basin is nearly zero and is positive during warmer, less dry years. The results explain how the mega-lake system could survive for a long time in the past and could eventually be restored in the future.

Biogeosciences

The recent state and variability of the carbonate system of the CanadianArctic Archipelago and adjacent basins in the context of ocean acidification

Ocean acidification is the process by which the oceans are changing due to carbon dioxide emissions from human activities. Studying this process in the Arctic Ocean is essential as this ocean and its ecosystems are more vulnerable to the effects of acidification. Water chemistry measurements made in recent years show that waters in and around the Canadian Arctic Archipelago are considerably affected by this process and show dynamic conditions that might have an impact on local marine organisms.

Earth System Dynamics

Impact of environmental changes and land management practices on wheatproduction in India

Spring wheat, a staple for millions of people in India and the world, is vulnerable to changing environmental and management factors. Using a new spring wheat model, we find that over the 1980–2016 period elevated CO ₂ levels, irrigation, and nitrogen fertilizers led to an increase of 30 %, 12 %, and 15 % in countrywide production, respectively. In contrast, rising temperatures have reduced production by 18 %. These effects vary across the country, thereby affecting production at regional scales.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Multidecadal trend analysis of in situ aerosol radiative properties around the world

Long-term trends of aerosol radiative properties (52 stations) prove that aerosol load has significantly decreased over the last 20 years. Scattering trends are negative in Europe (EU) and North America (NA), not ss in Asia, and show a mix of positive and negative trends at polar stations. Absorption has mainly negative trends. The single scattering albedo has positive trends in Asia and eastern EU and negative in western EU and NA, leading to a global positive median trend of 0.02 % per year.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Reviewing global estimates of surface reactive nitrogen concentration anddeposition using satellite retrievals

Excessive atmospheric reactive nitrogen (N _r ) deposition can cause a series of negative effects. Thus, it is necessary to accurately estimate N _r deposition to evaluate its impact on the ecosystems and environment. Scientists attempted to estimate surface N _r concentration and deposition using satellite retrievals. We give a thorough review of recent advances in estimating surface N _r concentration and deposition using satellite retrievals of NO ₂ and NH ₃ and summarize the existing challenges.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Invited perspectives: The volcanoes of Naples: how can the highest volcanic risk in the world be effectively mitigated?

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-2037-2020
4 August 2020

This paper starts by showing the present low performance of eruption forecasting and then addresses the problem of effectively mitigating the highest volcanic risk in the world, represented by the Naples area (southern Italy). The problem is considered in a highly multidisciplinary way, taking into account the main economic, sociological and urban planning issues. Our study gives precise guidelines to assessing and managing volcanic risk in any densely urbanised area.

The Cryosphere

Results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+)

We present the results of the third Marine Ice Sheet Intercomparison Project (MISMIP+). MISMIP+ is one in a series of exercises that test numerical models of ice sheet flow in simple situations. This particular exercise concentrates on the response of ice sheet models to the thinning of their floating ice shelves, which is of interest because numerical models are currently used to model the response to contemporary and near-future thinning in Antarctic ice shelves.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Spatial database and website for reservoir-triggered seismicity in Brazil

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-2001-2020
30 July 2020

One of the biggest challenges in studying reservoir-triggered seismicity (RTS) is to identify factors that can trigger seismicity. A spatial database and a web viewer were created, gathering the data pertinent to the RTS study. Results were obtained in processing these data; for example, the occurrence of RTS increases with the height of the dam, the minimum limiting volume value is 1 × 10 ⁻⁴ km ³ for occurrence of RTS, and for geology no correlations were found, among other results.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences

Coastal impacts of Storm Gloria (January 2020) over the north-western Mediterranean

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-1955-2020
28 July 2020

Storm Gloria hit the Mediterranean Spanish coastlines between 20 and 23 January 2020, causing severe damages such as flooding of the Ebro River delta. We evaluate its coastal impacts with a numerical simulation of the wind waves and the accumulated ocean water along the coastline (storm surge). The storm surge that reached values up to 1 m was mainly driven by the wind that also generated wind waves up to 8 m in height. We also determine the extent of the Ebro Delta flooded by marine water.

Earth Surface Dynamics

Mātauranga Māori in geomorphology: existing frameworks, case studies, and recommendations for incorporating Indigenous knowledge in Earth science

This review highlights potential contributions that Indigenous knowledge can make to geomorphic research. We evaluate several frameworks and models for including Indigenous knowledge in geomorphic research and discuss how they can be adapted for use with Indigenous communities across the world. We propose that weaving Indigenous knowledge with geomorphic science has the potential to create new solutions and understandings that neither body of knowledge could produce in isolation.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Smoke of extreme Australian bushfires observed in the stratosphere over Punta Arenas, Chile, in January 2020: optical thickness, lidar ratios, and depolarization ratios at 355 and 532 nm

Unique lidar observations of a strong perturbation in stratospheric aerosol conditions in the Southern Hemisphere caused by the extreme Australian bushfires in 2019–2020 are presented. One of the main goals of this article is to provide the CALIPSO and Aeolus spaceborne lidar science teams with basic input parameters (lidar ratios, depolarization ratios) for a trustworthy documentation of this record-breaking event.

Hydrology and Earth System Sciences

Why does a conceptual hydrological model fail to correctly predict discharge changes in response to climate change?

We investigate why a conceptual hydrological model failed to correctly predict observed discharge changes in response to increasing precipitation and air temperature in 156 Austrian catchments. Simulations indicate that poor model performance is related to two problems, namely a model structure that neglects changes in vegetation dynamics and inhomogeneities in precipitation data caused by changes in stations density with time. Other hypotheses did not improve simulated discharge changes.

Biogeosciences

On giant shoulders: how a seamount affects the microbial communitycomposition of seawater and sponges

Seamounts are globally abundant submarine structures that offer great potential to study the impacts and interactions of environmental gradients at a single geographic location. In an exemplary way, we describe potential mechanisms by which a seamount can affect the structure of pelagic and benthic (sponge-)associated microbial communities. We conclude that the geology, physical oceanography, biogeochemistry, and microbiology of seamounts are even more closely linked than currently appreciated.

Biogeosciences

N2O changes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the preindustrial – Part 2: terrestrial N2O emissions and carbon–nitrogen cycle interactions

Results of the first globally resolved simulations of terrestrial carbon and nitrogen (N) cycling and N ₂ O emissions over the past 21 000 years are compared with reconstructed N ₂ O emissions. Modelled and reconstructed emissions increased strongly during past abrupt warming events. This evidence appears consistent with a dynamic response of biological N fixation to increasing N demand by ecosystems, thereby reducing N limitation of plant productivity and supporting a land sink for atmospheric CO ₂ .

The Cryosphere

The MOSAiC ice floe: sediment-laden survivor from the Siberian shelf

In October 2019 the research vessel Polarstern was moored to an ice floe in order to travel with it on the 1-year-long MOSAiC journey through the Arctic. Here we provide historical context of the floe’s evolution and initial state for upcoming studies. We show that the ice encountered on site was exceptionally thin and was formed on the shallow Siberian shelf. The analyses presented provide the initial state for the analysis and interpretation of upcoming biogeochemical and ecological studies.

Solid Earth

The enigmatic curvature of Central Iberia and its puzzling kinematics

Pangea was assembled during Devonian to early Permian times and resulted in a large-scale and winding orogeny that today transects Europe, northwestern Africa, and eastern North America. This orogen is characterized by an S shape corrugated geometry in Iberia. This paper presents the advances and milestones in our understanding of the geometry and kinematics of the Central Iberian curve from the last decade with particular attention paid to structural and paleomagnetic studies.

The Cryosphere

Landfast sea ice material properties derived from ice bridge simulations using the Maxwell elasto-brittle rheology

We study the formation of ice arches between two islands using a model that resolves crack initiation and propagation. This model uses a damage parameter to parameterize the presence or absence of cracks in the ice. We find that the damage parameter allows for cracks to propagate in the ice but in a different orientation than predicted by theory. The results call for improvement in how stress relaxation associated with this damage is parameterized.

Biogeosciences

Twenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from CMIP6 model projections

We assess 21st century projections of marine biogeochemistry in the CMIP6 Earth system models. These models represent the most up-to-date understanding of climate change. The models generally project greater surface ocean warming, acidification, subsurface deoxygenation, and euphotic nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than the previous generation of models. This has major implications for the impact of anthropogenic climate change on marine ecosystems.

Annales Geophysicae

Lower-thermosphere response to solar activity: an empirical-mode-decomposition analysis of GOCE 2009–2012 data

Forecasting the thermosphere (atmosphere’s uppermost layer from 90 to 800 km altitude) is crucial to space mission design, spacecraft operations and space surveillance. The thermosphere is controlled by the Sun through variable solar extreme-ultraviolet radiation and the solar wind. We show how the solar indices Mg II and Ap may be used in forecasting thermospheric density at 260 km, a very low altitude, where the GOCE satellite operated from 2009 to 2013, during the full rise of solar cycle 24.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Identifying a regional aerosol baseline in the eastern North Atlantic using collocated measurements and a mathematical algorithm to mask high-submicron-number-concentration aerosol events

Continuous high-time-resolution ambient data can include periods when aerosol properties do not represent regional aerosol processes due to high-concentration local events. We develop a novel aerosol mask at the U.S. Department of Energy’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) facility in the eastern North Atlantic (ENA). We use two ground sites to validate the mask, include a comparison with aircraft overflights, and provide guidance to increase data quality at ENA and other locations.

Biogeosciences

The contribution of microbial communities in polymetallic nodules to thediversity of the deep-sea microbiome of the Peru Basin (4130–4198 mdepth)

Industrial-scale mining of deep-sea polymetallic nodules will remove nodules in large areas of the sea floor. We describe community composition of microbes associated with nodules of the Peru Basin. Our results show that nodules provide a unique ecological niche, playing an important role in shaping the diversity of the benthic deep-sea microbiome and potentially in element fluxes. We believe that our findings are highly relevant to expanding our knowledge of the impact associated with mining.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics

Enhanced growth rate of atmospheric particles from sulfuric acid

Sulfuric acid is a major atmospheric vapour for aerosol formation. If new particles grow fast enough, they can act as cloud droplet seeds or affect air quality. In a controlled laboratory set-up, we demonstrate that van der Waals forces enhance growth from sulfuric acid. We disentangle the effects of ammonia, ions and particle hydration, presenting a complete picture of sulfuric acid growth from molecular clusters onwards. In a climate model, we show its influence on the global aerosol budget.

Earth System Dynamics

The role of prior assumptions in carbon budget calculations

Levels of future temperature change are often used interchangeably with carbon budget allowances in climate policy, a relatively robust relationship on the timescale of this century. However, recent advances in understanding underline that continued warming after net-zero emissions have been achieved cannot be ruled out by observations of warming to date. We consider here how such behavior could be constrained and how policy can be framed in the context of these uncertainties.