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Rapid measurement of RH-dependent aerosol hygroscopic growth using a humidity-controlled fast integrated mobility spectrometer (HFIMS)

In this study, we present a newly developed instrument, the humidity-controlled fast integrated mobility spectrometer (HFIMS), for fast measurements of aerosol hygroscopic growth. The HFIMS can measure the distributions of particle hygroscopic growth factors at six diameters from 35 to 265 nm under five RH levels from 20 to 85 % within 25 min. The HFIMS significantly advances our capability of characterizing the hygroscopic growth of atmospheric aerosols over a wide range of relative humidities.

Dynamics of salt intrusion in the Mekong Delta: results of field observations and integrated coastal–inland modelling

Increased salt intrusion jeopardizes freshwater supply to the Mekong Delta, and the current trends are often inaccurately associated with sea level rise. Using observations and models, we show that salinity is highly sensitive to ocean surge, tides, water demand, and upstream discharge. We show that anthropogenic riverbed incision has significantly amplified salt intrusion, exemplifying the importance of preserving sediment budget and riverbed levels to protect deltas against salt intrusion.

The long-term transport and radiative impacts of the 2017 British Columbia pyrocumulonimbus smoke aerosols in the stratosphere

Interactions of extreme fires with weather systems can produce towering smoke plumes that inject aerosols at very high altitudes (> 10 km). Three such major injections, largest at the time in terms of emitted aerosol mass, took place over British Columbia, Canada, in August 2017. We model the transport and impacts of injected aerosols on the radiation balance of the atmosphere. Our model results match the satellite-observed plume transport and residence time at these high altitudes very closely.

The nano-scanning electrical mobility spectrometer (nSEMS) and its application to size distribution measurements of 1.5–25 nm particles

We present the design, modeling, and experimental characterization of the nano-scanning electrical mobility spectrometer (nSEMS), a recently developed instrument that probes particle physical properties in the 1.5–25 nm range. The nSEMS has proven to be extremely powerful in examining atmospheric nucleation and the subsequent growth of nanoparticles in the CERN CLOUD experiment, which provides a valuable asset to study atmospheric nanoparticles and to evaluate their impact on climate.

Physical characteristics of frozen hydrometeors inferred with parameter estimation

Satellite observations sensitive to cloud and precipitation help improve the quality of weather forecasts. However, they are sensitive to things that models do not forecast, such as the shapes and sizes of snow and ice particles. These details can be estimated from the observations themselves and then incorporated in the satellite simulators used in weather forecasting. This approach, known as parameter estimation, will be increasingly useful to build models of poorly known physical processes.

Influence of the representation of convection on the mid-Holocene West African Monsoon

This paper investigates the impact of explicitly resolving convection on the mid-Holocene West African Monsoon rain belt by employing the ICON climate model in high resolution. While the spatial distribution and intensity of the precipitation are improved by this technique, the monsoon extents further north and the mean summer rainfall is higher in the simulation with parameterized convection.

Iodide CIMS and m∕z 62: the detection of HNO3 as NO3− in the presence of PAN, peroxyacetic acid and ozone

We demonstrate in laboratory experiments that the formation of IOx anions (formed in reactions of I− with O3) or acetate anions (formed e.g. by the reaction of I− with peracetic acid) results in unexpected sensitivity of an iodide chemical ionisation mass spectrometer (I-CIMS) to HNO3 at a mass-to-charge ratio of 62. This helps explain observations of apparent high daytime levels of N2O5. Airborne measurements using I-CIMS confirm these conclusions.

Recent degradation of interior Alaska permafrost mapped with ground surveys, geophysics, deep drilling, and repeat airborne lidar

The Cryosphere
DOI 10.5194/tc-15-3555-2021
10 September 2021

Permafrost is actively degrading across high latitudes due to climate warming. We combined thousands of end-of-summer active layer measurements, permafrost temperatures, geophysical surveys, deep borehole drilling, and repeat airborne lidar to quantify permafrost warming and thawing at sites across central Alaska. We calculate the mass of permafrost soil carbon potentially exposed to thaw over the past 7 years (0.44 Pg) is similar to the yearly carbon dioxide emissions of Australia.

Spatial and temporal subsidence characteristics in Wuhan (China), during 2015–2019, inferred from Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferometry

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-2285-2021
8 September 2021

We mapped the subsidence of Wuhan using Sentinel-1 synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired during 2015–2019. Overall subsidence coincides with the distribution of engineered geological regions with soft soils, while the subsidence centers shifted with urban construction activities. Correlation between karst subsidence and concentrated rainfall was identified in Qingling–Jiangdi. Results indicate that interferometric SAR can be employed to routinely monitor and identify geohazards.

Better representation of dust can improve climate models with too weak an African monsoon

Earth system models have persistent biases that impinge on our ability to make robust future regional predictions of precipitation. For the last 15 years, there has been little improvement in these biases. This work presents an accurate representation of dust absorption based upon observed dust mineralogical composition and size distribution. The striking result is that this more accurate representation improves tropical precipitations for climate models with too weak an African monsoon.

Characterization of dark current signal measurements of the ACCDs used on board the Aeolus satellite

This paper reports on dark current signal anomalies of the detectors used on board the ESA’s Earth Explorer satellite Aeolus during the first 1.5 years in orbit. After introducing sophisticated algorithms to classify dark current anomalies according to their characteristics, the impact of the different kinds of anomalies on wind measurements is discussed. In addition, mitigation approaches for the wind retrieval are presented and potential root causes are discussed.

Drought effects on leaf fall, leaf flushing and stem growth in the Amazon forest: reconciling remote sensing data and field observations

Satellite images show that the Amazon forest has greened up during past droughts. Measurements of tree stem growth and leaf litterfall upscaled using machine-learning algorithms show that leaf flushing at the onset of a drought results in canopy rejuvenation and green-up during drought while simultaneously trees excessively shed older leaves and tree stem growth declines. Canopy green-up during drought therefore does not necessarily point to enhanced tree growth and improved forest health.

Steepening of magnetosonic waves in the inner coma of comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko

Plasma waves are an integral part of cometary physics, as they facilitate the transfer of energy and momentum. From intermediate to strong activity, nonlinear asymmetric plasma and magnetic field enhancements dominate the inner coma of 67P/CG. We present a statistical survey of these structures from December 2014 to June 2016, facilitated by Rosetta’s unprecedented long mission duration. Using a 1D MHD model, we show they can be described as a combination of nonlinear and dissipative effects.

Controls on the rates and products of particle attrition by bed-load collisions

The authors of this paper conducted experiments to investigate the mechanics of sediment attrition due to collisions with the channel bed during downstream transport. During this process, the grains become rounder and smaller, changing the overall distribution of sediment in the river. In this work the authors examine how material properties play a role in the breakdown of sediment due to energetic collisions and the fine particles that are produced when chipped off of larger grains.

fv3gfs-wrapper: a Python wrapper of the FV3GFS atmospheric model

FV3GFS is a weather and climate model written in Fortran. It uses Fortran so that it can run fast, but this makes it hard to add features if you do not (or even if you do) know Fortran. We have written a Python interface to FV3GFS that lets you import the Fortran model as a Python package. We show examples of how this is used to write “model” scripts, which reproduce or build on what the Fortran model can do. You could do this same wrapping for any compiled model, not just FV3GFS.

Invited perspectives: The ECMWF strategy 2021–2030 challenges in the area of natural hazards

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-2163-2021
23 August 2021

The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts mission is to deliver high-quality global medium‐range (3–15 d ahead of time) weather forecasts and monitoring of the Earth system. We have published a new strategy, and in this paper we discuss what this means for forecasting and monitoring natural hazards.

Nonstationary weather and water extremes: a review of methods for their detection, attribution, and management

Weather and water extremes have devastating effects each year. One of the principal challenges for society is understanding how extremes are likely to evolve under the influence of changes in climate, land cover, and other human impacts. This paper provides a review of the methods and challenges associated with the detection, attribution, management, and projection of nonstationary weather and water extremes.

Thaw-driven mass wasting couples slopes with downstream systems, and effects propagate through Arctic drainage networks

Climate-driven landslides are transforming glacially conditioned permafrost terrain, coupling slopes with aquatic systems, and triggering a cascade of downstream effects. Nonlinear intensification of thawing slopes is primarily affecting headwater systems where slope sediment yields overwhelm stream transport capacity. The propagation of effects across watershed scales indicates that western Arctic Canada will be an interconnected hotspot of thaw-driven change through the coming millennia.

Additional carbon inputs to reach a 4 per 1000 objective in Europe: feasibility and projected impacts of climate change based on Century simulations of long-term arable experiments

Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is beneficial for climate change mitigation and food security. One way to enhance SOC stocks is to increase carbon input to the soil. We estimate the amount of carbon input required to reach a 4 % annual increase in SOC stocks in 14 long-term agricultural experiments around Europe. We found that annual carbon input should increase by 43 % under current temperature conditions, by 54 % for a 1 °C warming scenario and by 120 % for a 5 °C warming scenario.

Tropical deoxygenation sites revisited to investigate oxygen and nutrient trends

Six tropical areas in the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans were investigated for trends for the years since 1950 for temperature, salinity, oxygen and nutrients at 50 to 300 m and 300 to 700 m depth. Generally, temperature increases, oxygen decreases and nutrients often increase. Overlain variability on the trends seem to be related to climate modes. Different trends indicate that oxygen and nutrient trends cannot by completely explained by local warming.

Disparities in particulate matter (PM10) origins and oxidative potential at a city scale (Grenoble, France) – Part 2.

With an enhanced source apportionment obtained in a companion paper, this paper acquires more understanding of the spatiotemporal associations of the sources of PM to oxidative potential (OP), an emerging health-based metric. Multilayer perceptron neural network analysis was used to apportion OP from PM sources. Results showed that such a methodology is as robust as the linear classical inversion and permits an improvement in the OP prediction when local features or non-linear effects occur.

Continental-scale controls on soil organic carbon across sub-Saharan Africa

SOIL
DOI 10.5194/soil-7-305-2021
9 August 2021

We investigated various soil and climate properties that influence soil organic carbon (SOC) concentrations in sub-Saharan Africa. Our findings indicate that climate and geochemistry are equally important for explaining SOC variations. The key SOC-controlling factors are broadly similar to those for temperate regions, despite differences in soil development history between the two regions.

Investigations on the anthropogenic reversal of the natural ozone gradient between northern and southern midlatitudes

The few ozone measurements made before the 1980s indicate that industrial development increased ozone concentrations by a factor of ~ 2 at northern midlatitudes, which are now larger than at southern midlatitudes. This difference was much smaller, and likely reversed, in the pre-industrial atmosphere. Earth system models find similar increases, but not higher pre-industrial ozone in the south. This disagreement may indicate that modeled natural ozone sources and/or deposition loss are inadequate.

Evaluation of ocean dimethylsulfide concentration and emission in CMIP6 models

In this study we analyse surface ocean dimethylsulfide (DMS) concentration and flux to the atmosphere from four CMIP6 Earth system models over the historical and ssp585 simulations. Our analysis of contemporary (1980–2009) climatologies shows that models better reproduce observations in mid to high latitudes. The models disagree on the sign of the trend of the global DMS flux from 1980 onwards. The models agree on a positive trend of DMS over polar latitudes following sea-ice retreat dynamics.

Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum

We present long-term projections of global peatland area and carbon with a continuous transient history since the Last Glacial Maximum. Our novel results show that large parts of today’s northern peatlands are at risk from past and future climate change, with larger emissions clearly connected to larger risks. The study includes comparisons between different emission and land-use scenarios, driver attribution through factorial simulations, and assessments of uncertainty from climate forcing.

Rarefied particle motions on hillslopes – Part 1: Theory

Sediment particles skitter down steep hillslopes on Earth and Mars. Particles gain speed in going downhill but are slowed down and sometimes stop due to collisions with the rough surface. The likelihood of stopping depends on the energetics of speeding up (heating) versus slowing down (cooling). Statistical physics predicts that particle travel distances are described by a generalized Pareto distribution whose form varies with the Kirkby number – the ratio of heating to cooling.

SoilGrids 2.0: producing soil information for the globe with quantified spatial uncertainty

SOIL
DOI 10.5194/soil-7-217-2021
28 July 2021

This paper focuses on the production of global maps of soil properties with quantified spatial uncertainty, as implemented in the SoilGrids version 2.0 product using DSM practices and adapting them for global digital soil mapping with legacy data. The quantitative evaluation showed metrics in line with previous studies. The qualitative evaluation showed that coarse-scale patterns are well reproduced. The spatial uncertainty at global scale highlighted the need for more soil observations.

Mapping the aerodynamic roughness of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using ICESat-2: evaluation over the K-transect

We developed a method to estimate the aerodynamic properties of the Greenland Ice Sheet surface using either UAV or ICESat-2 elevation data. We show that this new method is able to reproduce the important spatiotemporal variability in surface aerodynamic roughness, measured by the field observations. The new maps of surface roughness can be used in atmospheric models to improve simulations of surface turbulent heat fluxes and therefore surface energy and mass balance over rough ice worldwide.

A discontinuous Galerkin finite-element model for fast channelized lava flows v1.0

Lava flows present a natural hazard to communities around volcanoes and are usually slow-moving (< 1-5 cm/s). Lava flows during the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano, Hawai’i, however, reached speeds as high as 11 m/s. To investigate these dynamics we develop a new lava flow computer model that incorporates a nonlinear expression for the fluid viscosity. Model results indicate that the lava flows at Site 8 of the eruption displayed shear thickening behavior due to the flow’s high bubble content.

Fracking bad language – hydraulic fracturing and earthquake risks

The potential for hydraulic fracturing (fracking) to induce seismicity is a topic of widespread interest. We find that terms used to describe induced seismicity are poorly defined and ambiguous and do not translate into everyday language. Such bad language has led to challenges in understanding, perceiving, and communicating risks around seismicity and fracking. Our findings and recommendations are relevant to other geoenergy topics that are potentially associated with induced seismicity.

Microbial and geo-archaeological records reveal the growth rate, origin and composition of desert rock surface communities

Biological rock crusts (BRCs) are common microbial-based assemblages covering rocks in drylands. BRCs play a crucial role in arid environments because of the limited activity of plants and soil. Nevertheless, BRC development rates have never been dated. Here we integrated archaeological, microbiological and geological methods to provide a first estimation of the growth rate of BRCs under natural conditions. This can serve as an affordable dating tool in archaeological sites in arid regions.

Faster decline and higher variability in the sea ice thickness of the marginal Arctic seas when accounting for dynamic snow cover

We re-estimate pan-Arctic sea ice thickness (SIT) values by combining data from the Envisat and CryoSat-2 missions with data from a new, reanalysis-driven snow model. Because a decreasing amount of ice is being hidden below the waterline by the weight of overlying snow, we argue that SIT may be declining faster than previously calculated in some regions. Because the snow product varies from year to year, our new SIT calculations also display much more year-to-year variability.

Oxygen isotope exchange between water and carbon dioxide in soils is controlled by pH, nitrate and microbial biomass through links to carbonic anhydrase activity

SOIL
DOI 10.5194/soil-7-145-2021
14 July 2021

Understanding how the rate of oxygen isotope exchange between water and CO2 varies in soils is key for using the oxygen isotope composition of atmospheric CO2 as a tracer of biosphere CO2 fluxes at large scales. Across 44 diverse soils the rate of this exchange responded to pH, nitrate and microbial biomass, which are hypothesised to alter activity of the enzyme carbonic anhydrase in soils. Using these three soil traits, it is now possible to predict how this isotopic exchange varies spatially.

Interactions between deforestation, landscape rejuvenation, and shallow landslides in the North Tanganyika–Kivu rift region, Africa

We investigated how shallow landslide occurrence is impacted by deforestation and rifting in the North Tanganyika–Kivu rift region (Africa). We developed a new approach to calculate landslide erosion rates based on an inventory compiled in biased © Google Earth imagery. We find that deforestation increases landslide erosion by a factor of 2–8 and for a period of roughly 15 years. However, the exact impact of deforestation depends on the geomorphic context of the landscape (rejuvenated/relict).

FaIRv2.0.0: a generalized impulse response model for climate uncertainty and future scenario exploration

This paper presents an update of the FaIR simple climate model, which can estimate the impact of anthropogenic greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions on the global climate. This update aims to significantly increase the structural simplicity of the model, making it more understandable and transparent. This simplicity allows it to be implemented in a wide range of environments, including Excel. We suggest that it could be used widely in academia, corporate research, and education.

VAHCOLI, a new concept for lidars: technical setup, science applications, and first measurements

We present a new concept for a cluster of lidars that allows us to measure time-resolved profiles of temperatures, winds, and aerosols in the entire middle atmosphere for the first time, also covering regional horizontal scales (“four-dimensional coverage”). Measurements are performed during day and night. The essential component is a newly developed laser with unprecedented performance. We present the first measurements. New observational capabilities in atmospheric physics are established.

Comment on “Exceptionally high heat flux needed to sustain the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream” by Smith-Johnsen et al. (2020)

The modelling of Smith-Johnson et al. (The Cryosphere, 14, 841–854, 2020) suggests that a very large heat flux of more than 10 times the usual geothermal heat flux is required to have initiated or to control the huge Northeast Greenland Ice Stream. Our comparison with known hotspots, such as Iceland and Yellowstone, shows that such an exceptional heat flux would be unique in the world and is incompatible with known geological processes that can raise the heat flux.

Deoxygenation dynamics on the western Nile deep-sea fan during sapropel S1 from seasonal to millennial timescales

The Mediterranean Sea turned repeatedly into an oxygen-deprived basin during the geological past, as evidenced by distinct sediment layers called sapropels. We use here records of the last sapropel S1 retrieved in front of the Nile River to explore the relationships between riverine input and seawater oxygenation. We decipher the seasonal cycle of fluvial input and seawater chemistry as well as the decisive influence of primary productivity on deoxygenation at millennial timescales.

Invited perspectives: Landslide populations – can they be predicted?

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-1467-2021
1 July 2021

This is a perspective based on personal experience on whether a large number of landslides caused by a single trigger (e.g. an earthquake, an intense rainfall, a rapid snowmelt event) or by multiple triggers in a period can be predicted, in space and time, considering the consequences of slope failures.

Smoke-charged vortices in the stratosphere generated by wildfires and their behaviour in both hemispheres: comparing Australia 2020 to Canada 2017

Following the 2020 Australian fires, it was recently discovered that stratospheric wildfire smoke plumes self-organize as anticyclonic vortices that persist for months and rise by 10 km due to the radiative heating from the absorbing smoke. In this study, we show that smoke-charged vortices previously occurred in the aftermath of the 2017 Canadian fires. We use meteorological analysis to characterize this new object in geophysical fluid dynamics, which likely impacts radiation and climate.

First assessment of the earth heat inventory within CMIP5 historical simulations

The current radiative imbalance at the top of the atmosphere is increasing the heat stored in the oceans, atmosphere, continental subsurface and cryosphere, with consequences for societies and ecosystems (e.g. sea level rise). We performed the first assessment of the ability of global climate models to represent such heat storage in the climate subsystems. Models are able to reproduce the observed atmosphere heat content, with biases in the simulation of heat content in the rest of components.

Captive Aerosol Growth and Evolution (CAGE) chamber system to investigate particle growth due to secondary aerosol formation

The newly developed portable 1 m3 CAGE chamber systems were characterized using data acquired during a 2-month field study in 2016 in a forested area north of Houston, TX, USA. Concentrations of several oxidant and organic compounds measured in the chamber were found to closely agree with those calculated with a zero-dimensional model. By tracking the modes of injected monodisperse particles, a pattern change was observed for hourly averaged growth rates between late summer and early fall.

Assimilation of DAWN Doppler wind lidar data during the 2017 Convective Processes Experiment (CPEX): impact on precipitation and flow structure

The assimilation of airborne-based three-dimensional winds into a mesoscale weather forecast model resulted in better agreement with airborne radar-derived precipitation 3-D structure at later model time steps. More importantly, there was also a discernible impact on the resultant wind and moisture structure, in accord with independent analysis of the wind structure and external satellite observations.

Glacier detachments and rock-ice avalanches in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan (1973–2019)

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-21-1409-2021
24 June 2021

A cluster of 13 large mass flow events including five detachments of entire valley glaciers was observed in the Petra Pervogo range, Tajikistan, in 1973–2019. The local clustering provides additional understanding of the influence of temperature, seismic activity, and geology. Most events occurred in summer of years with mean annual air temperatures higher than the past 46-year trend. The glaciers rest on weak bedrock and are rather short, making them sensitive to friction loss due to meltwater.

Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options

We model greenhouse gas emission scenarios consistent with limiting global warming to either 1.5 or 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify the effectiveness of methane emission control and land-based mitigation options regionally. Our results highlight the importance of reducing methane emissions for realistic emission pathways that meet the global warming targets. For land-based mitigation, growing bioenergy crops on existing agricultural land is preferable to replacing forests.

Atmospheric extremes caused high oceanward sea surface slope triggering the biggest calving event in more than 50 years at the Amery Ice Shelf

The unexpected September 2019 calving event from the Amery Ice Shelf, the largest since 1963 and which occurred almost a decade earlier than expected, was triggered by atmospheric extremes. Explosive twin polar cyclones provided a deterministic role in this event by creating oceanward sea surface slope triggering the calving. The observed record-anomalous atmospheric conditions were promoted by blocking ridges and Antarctic-wide anomalous poleward transport of heat and moisture.

Heterogeneous interactions between SO2 and organic peroxides in submicron aerosol

Discrepancies between atmospheric modeling and field observations, especially in highly polluted cities, have highlighted the lack of understanding of sulfate formation mechanisms and kinetics. Here, we directly quantify the reactive uptake coefficient of SO2 onto organic peroxides and study the important governing factors. The SO2 uptake rate was observed to depend on RH, peroxide amount and reactivity, pH, and ionic strength, which provides a framework to better predict sulfate formation.

On the phenomenon of the blue sun

This study investigates the physical processes leading to the rare phenomenon of the sun appearing blue or green. The phenomenon is caused by anomalous scattering by, e.g., volcanic or forest fire aerosols. Unlike most other studies, our study includes a full treatment of the effect of Rayleigh scattering on the colour of the sun. We investigate different factors and revisit a historic example, i.e. the Canadian forest fires in 1950, that led to blue sun events in different European countries.

Effects of Earth system feedbacks on the potential mitigation of large-scale tropical forest restoration

Estimates of large-scale tree planting and forest restoration as a carbon sequestration tool typically miss a crucial aspect: the Earth system response to the increased land carbon sink from new vegetation. We assess the impact of tropical forest restoration using an Earth system model under a scenario that limits warming to 2 °C. Almost two-thirds of the carbon impact of forest restoration is offset by negative carbon cycle feedbacks, suggesting a more modest benefit than in previous studies.

Revision of the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmosphere Watch (WMO/GAW) CO2 calibration scale

We have recently revised the carbon dioxide calibration scale used by numerous laboratories that measure atmospheric CO2. The revision follows from an improved understanding of the manometric method used to determine the absolute amount of CO2 in an atmospheric air sample. The new scale is 0.18 μmol mol−1 (ppm) greater than the previous scale at 400 ppm CO2. While this difference is small in relative terms (0.045 %), it is significant in terms of atmospheric monitoring.