Review article: Hilbert problems for the climate sciences in the 21st century – 20 years later Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics DOI 10.5194/npg-27-429-2020 15 October 2020 The scientific questions posed by the climate sciences are central to socioeconomic concerns today. This paper revisits several crucial questions, starting with What can we predict beyond 1 week, for how long, and by what methods?, and ending with Can we achieve enlightened climate control of our planet by the end of the century? We review the progress in dealing with the nonlinearity and stochasticity of the Earth system and emphasize major strides in coupled climate–economy modeling. Read more
The future sea-level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet: a multi-model ensemble study of ISMIP6 The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020 15 October 2020 In this paper we use a large ensemble of Greenland ice sheet models forced by six different global climate models to project ice sheet changes and sea-level rise contributions over the 21st century. The results for two different greenhouse gas concentration scenarios indicate that the Greenland ice sheet will continue to lose mass until 2100, with contributions to sea-level rise of 90 ± 50 mm and 32 ± 17 mm for the high (RCP8.5) and low (RCP2.6) scenario, respectively. Read more
In situ measurements of soil and plant water isotopes: a review of approaches, practical considerations and a vision for the future Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-24-4413-2020 13 October 2020 Water isotopes are a scientific tool that can be used to identify sources of water and answer questions such as From which soil depths do plants take up water?, which are highly relevant under changing climatic conditions. In the past, the measurement of water isotopes required tremendous effort. In the last decade methods have advanced and can now be applied in the field. Herein, we review the current status of direct field measurements of water isotopes and discuss future applications. Read more
Storm tide amplification and habitat changes due to urbanization of a lagoonal estuary Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-20-2415-2020 13 October 2020 The geometry of estuaries is often altered through dredging to make room for ships and with extensive landfill over wetlands to enable development. Here, we use historical maps to help create computational models of seawater flow around and into a lagoonal bay of New York City for the 1880s and 2010s. Our results show that these past man-made changes cause higher coastal storm tides and that they result specifically from deeper depths, expanded inlet width, and landfill. Read more
A 6-year lidar survey reveals enhanced rockwall retreat and modified rockfall magnitudes/frequencies in deglaciating cirques Earth Surface Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esurf-8-753-2020 8 October 2020 Rockfall size and frequency in two deglaciating cirques in the Central Alps, Austria, is analysed based on 6-year rockwall monitoring with terrestrial lidar (2011–2017). The erosion rates derived from this dataset are very high due to a frequent occurrence of large rockfalls in freshly deglaciated areas. The results obtained are important for rockfall hazard assessments, as, in rockwalls affected by glacier retreat, historical rockfall patterns are not good predictors of future events. Read more
Current glacier recession causes significant rockfall increase: the immediate paraglacial response of deglaciating cirque walls Earth Surface Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esurf-8-729-2020 8 October 2020 Climate warming is causing significant ice surface lowering even in the uppermost parts of alpine glaciers. Using terrestrial lidar, we quantify rockfall in freshly exposed cirque walls. During 6-year monitoring (2011–2017), an extensive dataset was established and over 600 rockfall events identified. Drastically increased rockfall activity following ice retreat can clearly be observed as 60 % of the rockfall volume detached from less than 10 m above the glacier surface. Read more
A Bayesian framework for emergent constraints: case studies of climate sensitivity with PMIP Climate of the Past DOI 10.5194/cp-16-1715-2020 6 October 2020 Interest in past climates as sources of information for the climate system has grown in recent years. In particular, studies of the warm mid-Pliocene and cold Last Glacial Maximum showed relationships between the tropical surface temperature of the Earth and its sensitivity to an abrupt doubling of atmospheric CO 2 . In this study, we develop a new and promising statistical method and obtain similar results as previously observed, wherein the sensitivity does not seem to exceed extreme values. PMIP">Read more
Vertical profiles of light absorption and scattering associated with black carbon particle fractions in the springtime Arctic above 79∘ N Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-20-10545-2020 6 October 2020 Black carbon is a factor in the warming of the Arctic atmosphere due to its ability to absorb light, but the uncertainty is high and few observations have been made in the high Arctic above 80° N. We combine airborne and ground-based observations in the springtime Arctic, at and above 80° N, with simulations from a global model to show that light absorption by black carbon may be much larger than modelled. However, the uncertainty remains high. Read more
Comparing secondary organic aerosol (SOA) volatility distributions derived from isothermal SOA particle evaporation data and FIGAERO–CIMS measurements Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-20-10441-2020 1 October 2020 We compared the volatility distributions of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) constituents estimated from isothermal evaporation experiments from either particle size change data, by process modelling and global optimization, or from mass spectrometer data with positive matrix factorization analysis. Our results show that, despite the two very different estimation methods, the volatility distributions are comparable if uncertainties are taken into account. SOA) volatility distributions derived from isothermal SOA particle evaporation data and FIGAERO–CIMS measurements">Read more
Predicting the morphology of ice particles in deep convection using the super-droplet method:development and evaluation of SCALE-SDM 0.2.5-2.2.0, -2.2.1, and -2.2.2 Geoscientific Model Development DOI 10.5194/gmd-13-4107-2020 1 October 2020 Using the super-droplet method, we constructed a detailed numerical model of mixed-phase clouds based on kinetic description and subsequently demonstrated that a large-eddy simulation of a cumulonimbus which predicts ice particle morphology without assuming ice categories or mass–dimension relationships is possible. Our results strongly support the particle-based modeling methodology’s efficacy for simulating mixed-phase clouds. SCALE-SDM 0.2.5-2.2.0, -2.2.1, and -2.2.2">Read more
