Quantifying variations in shortwave aerosol–cloud–radiation interactions using local meteorology and cloud state constraints Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-19-6251-2019 13 May 2019 Aerosols are released by natural and human activities. When aerosols encounter clouds they interact in what is known as the indirect effect. Brighter clouds are expected due to the microphysical response; however, certain environments can trigger a modified response. Limits on the stability, humidity, and cloud thickness are applied regionally to investigate local cloud responses to aerosol, resulting in a range of indirect effects that would result in significant cooling or slight warming. Read more
Using a coupled agent-based modeling approach to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-2261-2019 10 May 2019 This study applies a two-way coupled agent-based model (ABM) with a river-reservoir management model (RiverWare) to analyze the role of risk perception in water management decisions using the Bayesian inference mapping joined with the cost–loss model. The calibration results capture the dynamics of historical irrigated area and streamflow changes and suggest that the proposed framework improves the representation of human decision-making processes compared to conventional rule-based ABMs. Read more
Heterogeneous sulfate aerosol formation mechanisms during wintertime Chinese haze events: air quality model assessment using observations of sulfate oxygen isotopes in Beijing Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-19-6107-2019 8 May 2019 Sulfate is a key species contributing to particle formation and growth during wintertime Chinese haze events. This study combines observations and modeling of oxygen isotope signatures in sulfate aerosol to investigate its formation mechanisms, with a focus on heterogeneous production on aerosol surface via H2O2, O3, and NO2 and trace metal catalyzed oxidation. Contributions from different formation pathways are presented. Read more
Reciprocal bias compensation and ensuing uncertainties in model-based climate projections: pelagic biogeochemistry versus ocean mixing Biogeosciences DOI 10.5194/bg-16-1865-2019 6 May 2019 Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions trigger complex climate feedbacks. Output form Earth system models provides a basis for related political decision-making. One challenge is to arrive at reliable model parameter estimates for the ocean biogeochemistry module. We illustrate pitfalls through which flaws in the ocean module are masked by wrongly tuning the biogeochemistry and discuss ensuing uncertainties in climate projections. Read more
Summertime precipitation extremes in a EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/nhess-19-957-2019 2 May 2019 A state-of-the-art regional climate model ensemble for Europe is investigated for extreme precipitation intensities. The models poorly reproduce short duration events of less than a few hours. Further, there is poor connection to some known hotspots for extreme cases. The model performance is much improved at 12 h durations. Projected future increases scale with seasonal mean temperature change, within a range from a few percent to over 10 percent per degree Celsius. EURO-CORDEX 0.11° ensemble at an hourly resolution">Read more
Vertical and horizontal distribution of submicron aerosol chemical composition and physical characteristics across northern India during pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics DOI 10.5194/acp-19-5615-2019 30 April 2019 Our study, for the first time, presents measurements of aerosol chemical composition and physical characteristics across northern India in the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons of 2016 using the FAAM BAe-146 UK research aircraft. Across northern India, an elevated aerosol layer dominated by sulfate aerosol exists that diminishes with monsoon arrival. The Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP) boundary layer is dominated by organics, whereas outside the IGP sulfate dominates with increased scattering aerosol. Read more
Controls on spatial and temporal variability in streamflow and hydrochemistry in a glacierized catchment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences DOI 10.5194/hess-23-2041-2019 24 April 2019 Hydrometric and geochemical dynamics are controlled by interplay of meteorological conditions, topography and geological heterogeneity. Nivo-meteorological indicators (such as global solar radiation, temperature and decreasing snow depth) explain monthly conductivity and isotopic dynamics best. These insights are important for better understanding hydrochemical responses of glacierized catchments under a changing cryosphere. Read more
Winter tourism under climate change in the Pyrenees and the French Alps: relevance of snowmaking as a technical adaptation The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-13-1325-2019 24 April 2019 This study investigates the snow reliability of 175 ski resorts in the Pyrenees (France, Spain and Andorra) and the French Alps under past and future conditions (1950–2100) using state-of-the-art climate projections and snowpack modelling accounting for snow management, i.e. grooming and snowmaking. The snow reliability of ski resorts shows strong elevation and regional differences, and our study quantifies changes in snow reliability induced by snowmaking under various climate scenarios. Read more
Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change The Cryosphere DOI 10.5194/tc-13-1349-2019 24 April 2019 Using probabilistic methods, we quantify the uncertainty in the Antarctic ice-sheet response to climate change over the next millennium under the four RCP scenarios and parametric uncertainty. We find that the ice sheet is stable in RCP 2.6 regardless of parametric uncertainty, while West Antarctica undergoes disintegration in RCP 8.5 almost regardless of parametric uncertainty. We also show a high sensitivity of the ice-sheet response to uncertainty in sub-shelf melting and sliding conditions. Read more
ESD Ideas: Propagation of high-frequency forcing to ice age dynamics Earth System Dynamics DOI 10.5194/esd-10-257-2019 24 April 2019 We demonstrate here that nonlinear character of ice sheet dynamics, which was derived naturally from the conservation laws, is an effective means for propagating high-frequency forcing upscale. ESD Ideas: Propagation of high-frequency forcing to ice age dynamics">Read more
