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1789 items found

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Cross-scale causal information flow from the El Niño–Southern Oscillation to precipitation in eastern China

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a gigantic natural orchestra playing with the temperature of Pacific waters and influencing air temperature and rainfall worldwide. Naturally, the “loudness” or amplitude of ENSO has effects on climate; however, consonance of its various tones, or phases of different ENSO oscillatory components, can exert causal effects on rainfall in some areas in China. In different regions, different aspects of ENSO dynamics can predict rainfall amounts.

Microbial response to deliquescence of nitrate-rich soils in the hyperarid Atacama Desert

We studied unique nitrate-rich soils in the hyperarid Atacama Desert that form brines at night under high relative humidity. Despite providing water for microorganisms, these soils exhibit extremely low microbial activity, indicating that the high nitrate levels inhibit microbial life. On the other hand, enriched organic matter indicates their potential preservation. This research helps to understand the limits of life in extreme environments and aids in the search for signs of life on Mars.

Microbial strong organic-ligand production is tightly coupled to iron in hydrothermal plumes

Hydrothermally derived iron can be transported kilometers away from deep-sea vents, representing a significant flux of vital micronutrients to the ocean. However, the mechanisms that support the stabilization of dissolved iron remain elusive. Using electrochemical, spectrometry, and genomic methods, we demonstrated that strong ligands exert an important control on iron in plumes, and high-affinity iron-binding siderophores were identified in several hydrothermal plume samples for the first time

Representation of the terrestrial carbon cycle in CMIP6

This study investigates present-day carbon cycle variables in CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulations. Overall, CMIP6 models perform better but also show many remaining biases. A significant improvement in the simulation of photosynthesis in models with a nitrogen cycle is found, with only small differences between emission- and concentration-based simulations. Thus, we recommend using emission-driven simulations in CMIP7 by default and including the nitrogen cycle in all future carbon cycle models.

Opinion: Beyond global means – novel space-based approaches to indirectly constrain the concentrations of and trends and variations in the tropospheric hydroxyl radical (OH)

Trace gases emitted to or formed within the atmosphere may be chemically or physically removed from the atmosphere. One trace gas, the hydroxyl radical (OH), is responsible for initiating the chemical removal of many trace gases, including some greenhouse gases. Despite its importance, scientists have not been able to adequately measure OH. In this opinion piece, we discuss promising new methods to indirectly constrain OH using satellite data of trace gases that control the abundance of OH.

Eddy covariance with slow-response greenhouse gas analysers on tall towers: bridging atmospheric and ecosystem greenhouse gas networks

This study presents direct flux measurements in tall towers using existing slow-response analysers and adding 3D sonic anemometers. This way, we can significantly improve greenhouse gas monitoring with little extra instrumental effort. Slow-response analysers may be used here as the relevant frequency ranges depend on measuring height. Tall towers offer a large footprint, amplifying spatial coverage. The presented concept is a valuable bridge between atmospheric and ecosystem communities.

Invited perspectives: safeguarding the usability and credibility of flood hazard and risk assessments

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-4015-2024
26 November 2024

Flood risk assessments help us decide how to reduce the risk of flooding. Since these assessments are based on probabilities, it is hard to check their accuracy by comparing them to past data. We suggest a new way to validate these assessments, making sure they are practical for real-life decisions. This approach looks at both the technical details and the real-world situations where decisions are made. We demonstrate its practicality by applying it to flood emergency planning.

X-BASE: the first terrestrial carbon and water flux products from an extended data-driven scaling framework, FLUXCOM-X

The movement of water, carbon, and energy from the Earth’s surface to the atmosphere, or flux, is an important process to understand because it impacts our lives. Here, we outline a method called FLUXCOM-X to estimate global water and CO2 fluxes based on direct measurements from sites around the world. We go on to demonstrate how these new estimates of net CO2 uptake/loss, gross CO2 uptake, total water evaporation, and transpiration from plants compare to previous and independent estimates.

Twenty-first century global glacier evolution under CMIP6 scenarios and the role of glacier-specific observations

Glaciers are major contributors to sea-level rise and act as key water resources. Here, we model the global evolution of glaciers under the latest generation of climate scenarios. We show that the type of observations used for model calibration can strongly affect the projections at the local scale. Our newly projected 21st century global mass loss is higher than the current community estimate as reported in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report.

How to measure the efficiency of bioenergy crops compared to forestation

Using a state-of-the-art land model, we find that bioenergy plants can store carbon more efficiently than forests over long periods in the soil, in geological reservoirs, or by substituting fossil-fuel-based energy. Planting forests is more suitable for reaching climate targets by 2050. The carbon removal potential depends also on local environmental conditions. These considerations have important implications for climate policy, spatial planning, nature conservation, and agriculture.

An overview of outdoor low-cost gas-phase air quality sensor deployments: current efforts, trends, and limitations

We reviewed 60 sensor networks and 17 related efforts (sensor review papers and data accessibility projects) to better understand the landscape of stationary low-cost gas-phase sensor networks deployed in outdoor environments worldwide. Gaps in monitoring efforts include the availability of gas-phase measurements compared to particulate matter (PM) and geographic coverage gaps (the Global South, rural areas). We conclude with a summary of cross-network unification and quality control efforts.

Testing floc settling velocity models in rivers and freshwater wetlands

Fine sediment grains in freshwater can cohere into faster-settling particles called flocs, but floc settling velocity theory has not been fully validated. Combining three data sources in novel ways in the Wax Lake Delta, we verified a semi-empirical model relying on turbulence and geochemical factors. For a physics-based model, we showed that the representative grain diameter within flocs relies on floc structure and that heterogeneous flow paths inside flocs increase floc settling velocity.

Tropospheric links to uncertainty in stratospheric subseasonal predictions

Strong variations in the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex can profoundly affect surface weather extremes; therefore, accurately predicting the stratosphere can improve surface weather forecasts. The research reveals how uncertainty in the stratosphere is linked to the troposphere. The findings suggest that refining models to better represent the identified sources and impact regions in the troposphere is likely to improve the prediction of the stratosphere and its surface impacts.

A three-stage model pipeline predicting regional avalanche danger in Switzerland (RAvaFcast v1.0.0): a decision-support tool for operational avalanche forecasting

By harnessing AI models, this work enables processing large amounts of data, including weather conditions, snowpack characteristics, and historical avalanche data, to predict human-like avalanche forecasts in Switzerland. Our proposed model can significantly assist avalanche forecasters in their decision-making process, thereby facilitating more efficient and accurate predictions crucial for ensuring safety in Switzerland’s avalanche-prone regions.

Exploring climate stabilisation at different global warming levels in ACCESS-ESM-1.5

Governments are targeting net-zero emissions later this century with the aim of limiting global warming in line with the Paris Agreement. However, few studies explore the long-term consequences of reaching net-zero emissions and the effects of a delay in reaching net-zero. We use the Australian Earth system model to examine climate evolution under net-zero emissions. We find substantial changes which differ regionally, including continued Southern Ocean warming and Antarctic sea ice reduction.

Air quality modeling intercomparison and multiscale ensemble chain for Latin America

Latin America (LAC) has some of the most populated urban areas in the world, with high levels of air pollution. Air quality management in LAC has been traditionally focused on surveillance and building emission inventories. This study performed the first intercomparison and model evaluation in LAC, with interesting and insightful findings for the region. A multiscale modeling ensemble chain was assembled as a first step towards an air quality forecasting system.

Opinion: How will advances in aerosol science inform our understanding of the health impacts of outdoor particulate pollution?

This opinion paper explores how advances in aerosol science inform our understanding of the health impacts of outdoor particulate pollution. We advocate for a shift in the way we target PM pollution, focusing on the most harmful anthropogenic emissions. We highlight key observations, modelling developments, and emission measurements needed to achieve this shift.

Barchan swarm dynamics from a Two-Flank Agent-Based Model

Barchans are fast-moving sand dunes which form large populations (swarms) on Earth and Mars. We show that a small range of model parameters produces swarms in which dune size does not vary downwind – something that is observed in nature but not when using earlier models. We also show how the shape of dunes and the spatial patterns they form are affected by wind direction. This work furthers our understanding of the interplay between environmental drivers, dune interactions, and swarm properties.

Seafloor sediment characterization improves estimates of organic carbon standing stocks: an example from the Eastern Shore Islands, Nova Scotia, Canada

Quantifying how much organic carbon is stored in seafloor sediments is key to assessing how human activities can accelerate the process of carbon storage at the seabed, an important consideration for climate change. This study uses seafloor sediment maps to model organic carbon content. Carbon estimates were 12 times higher when assuming the absence of detailed sediment maps, demonstrating that high-resolution seafloor mapping is critically important for improved estimates of organic carbon.

A global analysis of the fractal properties of clouds revealing anisotropy of turbulence across scales

The shapes of clouds viewed from space reflect vertical and horizontal motions in the atmosphere. We theorize that, globally, cloud perimeter complexity is related to the dimension of turbulence also governed by horizontal and vertical motions. We find agreement between theory and observations from various satellites and a numerical model and, remarkably, that the theory applies globally using only basic planetary physical parameters from the smallest scales of turbulence to the planetary scale.

Energy transfer from internal solitary waves to turbulence via high-frequency internal waves: seismic observations in the northern South China Sea

With seismic data, we observed high-frequency internal waves (HIWs) with amplitudes of around 10 m. A shoaling thermocline and gentle slope suggest that HIWs result from fission. Remote sensing data support this. Strong shear caused Ri below 0.25 over 20–30 km, indicating instability. HIWs enhance mixing, averaging 10-4 m2s-1, revealing a new energy cascade from shoaling waves to turbulence, and enhancing our understanding of energy dissipation and mixing in the northern South China Sea.

Bringing it all together: science priorities for improved understanding of Earth system change and to support international climate policy

We propose a number of priority areas for the international climate research community to address over the coming decade. Advances in these areas will both increase our understanding of past and future Earth system change, including the societal and environmental impacts of this change, and deliver significantly improved scientific support to international climate policy, such as future IPCC assessments and the UNFCCC Global Stocktake.

The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland, ERM-CH23

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-3561-2024
17 October 2024

The Earthquake Risk Model of Switzerland (ERM-CH23), released in early 2023, is the culmination of a multidisciplinary effort aiming to achieve, for the first time, a comprehensive assessment of the potential consequences of earthquakes on the Swiss building stock and population. ERM-CH23 provides risk estimates for various impact metrics, ranging from economic loss as a result of damage to buildings and their contents to human losses, such as deaths, injuries, and displaced population.

Uncertainty-informed selection of CMIP6 Earth system model subsets for use in multisectoral and impact models

From running climate models to using their outputs to identify impacts, modeling the integrated human–Earth system is expensive. This work presents a method to identify a smaller subset of models from the full set that preserves the uncertainty characteristics of the full set. This results in a smaller number of runs that an impact modeler can use to assess how uncertainty propagates from the Earth to the human system, while still capturing the range of outcomes provided by climate models.

The spatio-temporal evolution of the Chongzhen drought (1627–1644) in China and its impact on famine

This study used 1802 drought and 1977 famine records from historical documents to reconstruct the spatial–temporal progression of the Chongzhen drought (1627–1644) in China and its impacts. We advance this research by reconstructing the annual spatial patterns and regional series of drought; demonstrating drought as the primary factor triggering famine; and identifying the transmission pathway of the drought’s impacts and how social factors, especially human responses, regulated these impacts.

Earth science for all? The economic barrier to European geoscience conferences

Conferences are key for knowledge exchange and networking. However, these events lack diversity, favoring wealthier countries and limiting opportunities for scholars from lower-income regions. Our study of the EGU meeting reveals that attendance is mostly influenced by a country’s income. To promote inclusivity, we suggest rotating event locations, offering affordable accommodations, and establishing travel funds. These steps can help create a more diverse and innovative scientific community.

The 2023 global warming spike was driven by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation

The rapid global warming of 2023 has led to concerns that it could be externally driven. Here we show that climate models subject only to internal variability predict such warming spikes but rarely (p~1.6 %). However, when a prolonged La Niña immediately precedes an El Niño, as occurred leading up to 2023, such spikes are not uncommon (p~10.3 %). Virtually all of the spikes occur during an El Niño, strongly suggesting that internal variability drove the 2023 warming.

Stable and unstable fall motions of plate-like ice crystal analogues

This study uses 3D-printed ice crystal analogues falling in a water–glycerine mix and observed with multi-view cameras, simulating atmospheric conditions. Four types of motion are observed: stable, zigzag, transitional, and spiralling. Particle shape strongly influences motion; complex shapes have a wider range of conditions where they fall steadily compared to simple plates. The most common orientation of unstable particles is non-horizontal, contrary to prior assumptions of always horizontal.

Characterizing nonlinear, nonstationary, and heterogeneous hydrologic behavior using ensemble rainfall–runoff analysis (ERRA): proof of concept

Here, I present a new way to quantify how streamflow responds to rainfall across a range of timescales. This approach can estimate how different rainfall intensities affect streamflow. It can also quantify how runoff response to rainfall varies, depending on how wet the landscape already is before the rain falls. This may help us to understand processes and landscape properties that regulate streamflow and to assess the susceptibility of different landscapes to flooding

Global-scale gravity wave analysis methodology for the ESA Earth Explorer 11 candidate CAIRT

We investigate the capabilities of a proposed satellite mission, CAIRT, for observing gravity waves throughout the middle atmosphere and present the necessary methodology for in-depth wave analysis. Our findings suggest that such a satellite mission is highly capable of resolving individual wave parameters and could give new insights into the role of gravity waves in general atmospheric circulation and atmospheric processes.

The effects of land use on soil carbon stocks in the UK

We collated a large data set (15 790 soil cores) on soil carbon stock in different land uses. Soil carbon stocks were highest in woodlands and lowest in croplands. The variability in the effects was large. This has important implications for agri-environment schemes seeking to sequester carbon in the soil by altering land use because the effect of a given intervention is very hard to verify.

Calibrating estimates of ionospheric long-term change

Long-term change in the ionosphere are expected due to increases in greenhouse gases in the lower atmosphere. Empirical formulae are used to estimate height. Through comparison with independent data we show that there are seasonal and long-term biases introduced by the empirical model. We conclude that estimates of long-term changes in ionospheric height need to account for these biases.

Review article: Drought as a continuum – memory effects in interlinked hydrological, ecological, and social systems

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-3173-2024
23 September 2024

Drought is a creeping phenomenon but is often still analysed and managed like an isolated event, without taking into account what happened before and after. Here, we review the literature and analyse five cases to discuss how droughts and their impacts develop over time. We find that the responses of hydrological, ecological, and social systems can be classified into four types and that the systems interact. We provide suggestions for further research and monitoring, modelling, and management.

Increasing aerosol optical depth spatial and temporal availability by merging datasets from geostationary and sun-synchronous satellites

In this study, for the first time, we combined aerosol data from six satellites using a unified algorithm. The global datasets are generated at a high spatial resolution of about 25 km with an interval of 30 min. The new datasets are compared against ground truth and verified. They will be useful for various applications such as air quality monitoring, climate research, pollution diurnal variability, long-range smoke and dust transport, and evaluation of regional and global models.

Methane retrieval from MethaneAIR using the CO2 proxy approach: a demonstration for the upcoming MethaneSAT mission

MethaneSAT is an upcoming satellite mission designed to monitor methane emissions from the oil and gas (O&G) industry globally. Here, we present observations from the first flight campaign of MethaneAIR, a MethaneSAT-like instrument mounted on an aircraft. MethaneAIR can map methane with high precision and accuracy over a typically sized oil and gas basin (~200 km2) in a single flight. This paper demonstrates the capability of the upcoming satellite to routinely track global O&G emissions.

Volcano tsunamis and their effects on moored vessel safety: the 2022 Tonga event

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-3095-2024
20 September 2024

The eruption of the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Ha’apai volcano in January 2022 triggered a global phenomenon, including an atmospheric wave and a volcano-meteorological tsunami (VMT). The tsunami, reaching as far as Callao, Peru, 10 000 km away, caused significant coastal impacts. This study delves into understanding these effects, particularly on vessel mooring safety. The findings underscore the importance of enhancing early warning systems and preparing port authorities for managing such rare events.

The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model: overview and results

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-3049-2024
20 September 2024

The 2020 European Seismic Hazard Model (ESHM20) is the latest seismic hazard assessment update for the Euro-Mediterranean region. This state-of-the-art model delivers a broad range of hazard results, including hazard curves, maps, and uniform hazard spectra. ESHM20 provides two hazard maps as informative references in the next update of the European Seismic Design Code (CEN EC8), and it also provides a key input to the first earthquake risk model for Europe.

Large-sample hydrology – a few camels or a whole caravan?

We show that the differences between the forcing data included in three CAMELS datasets (US, BR, GB) and the forcing data included for the same catchments in the Caravan dataset affect model calibration considerably. The model performance dropped when the data from the Caravan dataset were used instead of the original data. Most of the model performance drop could be attributed to the differences in precipitation data. However, differences were largest for the potential evapotranspiration data.

The EarthCARE lidar cloud and aerosol profile processor (A-PRO): the A-AER, A-EBD, A-TC, and A-ICE products

ATLID (atmospheric lidar) is the lidar to be flown on the Earth Clouds and Radiation Explorer satellite (EarthCARE). EarthCARE is a joint European–Japanese satellite mission that was launched in May 2024. ATLID is an advanced lidar optimized for cloud and aerosol property profile measurements. This paper describes some of the key novel algorithms being applied to this lidar to retrieve cloud and aerosol properties. Example results based on simulated data are presented and discussed.

Can we reliably reconstruct the mid-Pliocene Warm Period with sparse data and uncertain models?

We have created a new global surface temperature reconstruction of the climate of the mid-Pliocene Warm Period, representing the period roughly 3.2 million years before the present day. We estimate that the globally averaged mean temperature was around 3.9 °C warmer than it was in pre-industrial times, but there is significant uncertainty in this value.

Biological and dust aerosols as sources of ice-nucleating particles in the eastern Mediterranean: source apportionment, atmospheric processing and parameterization

Ice nucleating particle (INP) concentrations are required for correct predictions of clouds and precipitation in a changing climate, but they are poorly constrained in climate models. We unravel source contributions to INPs in the eastern Mediterranean and find that biological particles are important, regardless of their origin. The parameterizations developed exhibit superior performance and enable models to consider biological-particle effects on INPs.

CO2 emissions of drained coastal peatlands in the Netherlands and potential emission reduction by water infiltration systems

Biogeosciences
DOI 10.5194/bg-21-4099-2024
20 September 2024

Drained peatlands cause high CO2 emissions. We assessed the effectiveness of subsurface water infiltration systems (WISs) in reducing CO2 emissions related to increases in water table depth (WTD) on 12 sites for up to 4 years. Results show WISs markedly reduced emissions by 2.1 t CO2-C ha-1 yr-1. The relationship between the amount of carbon above the WTD and CO2 emission was stronger than the relationship between WTD and emission. Long-term monitoring is crucial for accurate emission estimates.

Young and new water fractions in soil and hillslope waters

We use a 3-year time series of tracer data of streamflow and soils to show how water moves through the subsurface to become streamflow. Less than 50% of soil water consists of rainfall from the last 3 weeks. Most annual streamflow is older than 3 months, and waters in deep subsurface layers are even older; thus deep layers are not the only source of streamflow. After wet periods more rainfall was found in the subsurface and the stream, suggesting that water moves quicker through wet landscapes.

Representation learning with unconditional denoising diffusion models for dynamical systems

We train neural networks as denoising diffusion models for state generation in the Lorenz 1963 system and demonstrate that they learn an internal representation of the system. We make use of this learned representation and the pre-trained model in two downstream tasks: surrogate modelling and ensemble generation. For both tasks, the diffusion model can outperform other more common approaches. Thus, we see a potential of representation learning with diffusion models for dynamical systems.

Mesoscale permeability variations estimated from natural airflows in the decorated Cosquer Cave (southeastern France)

Conservation of decorated caves is highly dependent on airflows and is correlated with rock formation permeability. We present the first conceptual model of flows around the Paleolithic decorated Cosquer coastal cave (southeastern France), quantify air permeability, and show how its variation affects water levels inside the cave. This study highlights that airflows may change in karst unsaturated zones in response to changes in the water cycle and may thus be affected by climate change.

Precursors and pathways: dynamically informed extreme event forecasting demonstrated on the historic Emilia-Romagna 2023 flood

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences
DOI 10.5194/nhess-24-2995-2024
6 September 2024

Extreme rainfall is the leading weather-related source of damages in Europe, but it is still difficult to predict on long timescales. A recent example of this was the devastating floods in the Italian region of Emiglia Romagna in May 2023. We present perspectives based on large-scale dynamical information that allows us to better understand and predict such events.

Ice viscosity governs hydraulic fracture that causes rapid drainage of supraglacial lakes

Due to surface melting, meltwater lakes seasonally form on the surface of glaciers. These lakes drive hydrofractures that rapidly transfer water to the base of ice sheets. This paper presents a computational method to capture the complicated hydrofracturing process. Our work reveals that viscous ice rheology has a great influence on the short-term propagation of fractures, enabling fast lake drainage, whereas thermal effects (frictional heating, conduction, and freezing) have little influence.

Optimizing the iodide-adduct chemical ionization mass spectrometry (CIMS) quantitative method for toluene oxidation intermediates: experimental insights into functional-group differences

We introduce detailed and improved quantitation and semi-quantitation methods of iodide-adduct time-of-flight chemical ionization mass spectrometry (I-CIMS) to measure toluene oxidation intermediates. We assess the experimental sensitivity of various functional group species and their binding energy with iodide ions in I-CIMS. A novel classification approach was introduced to significantly enhance the accuracy of semi-quantitative methods (improving R2 values from 0.52 to beyond 0.88).

How is particulate organic carbon transported through the river-fed submarine Congo Canyon to the deep sea?

The land-to-ocean flux of particulate organic carbon (POC) is difficult to measure, inhibiting accurate modeling of the global carbon cycle. Here, we quantify the POC flux between one of the largest rivers on Earth (Congo) and the ocean. POC in the form of vegetation and soil is transported by episodic submarine avalanches in a 1000 km long canyon at up to 5 km water depth. The POC flux induced by avalanches is at least 3 times greater than that induced by the background flow related to tides.

The crucial representation of deep convection for the cyclogenesis of Medicane Ianos

Cyclone Ianos of September 2020 was a high-impact but poorly predicted medicane (Mediterranean hurricane). A community effort of numerical modelling provides robust results to improve prediction. It is found that the representation of local thunderstorms controlled the interaction of Ianos with a jet stream at larger scales and its subsequent evolution. The results help us understand the peculiar dynamics of medicanes and provide guidance for the next generation of weather and climate models.